Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings were already a major source of anxiety for Democrats worried about his likely presidential rematch against Donald Trump in 2024. But suddenly, this month, it feels like Biden’s re-election chances are being eaten from within. 

October has brought with it a series of worrisome data points and heated criticisms from progressives, suggesting that Biden is in trouble with his own Democratic voters, even as he coasts (mostly) unchallenged to his party’s nomination next summer in Chicago. Biden’s approval ratings among Democrats have long been softer than they should be, notably among core groups like Black voters and Gen Z—a cohort that was underwhelmed with Biden well before the violence in Israel and Gaza erupted earlier this month. (This is a trend I’ve been documenting all year.) But the president’s stalwart support for Israel has apparently eroded his support even further among Gen Z voters, an age group that’s much more likely to side with the Palestinian cause than older Americans.

In fact, a new Gallup poll last week showed Biden’s approval rating among Democrats overall in the past month has dropped 11 points, down to 75 percent. That’s pushed his overall approval rating down to just 37 percent, reaching Trump-level depths of unpopularity. It might be the case that the Gallup survey is an outlier, but that seems unlikely given that the polling outfit was in the field for three full weeks in October, both before and after Israel began its retaliatory campaign against Hamas.