What I’m Hearing… About the Year’s Biggest Flop, the Future of Theaters, and a Warners Tiff

Welcome back to What I'm Hearing...

For those new here, I’m Matt Belloni, a former entertainment lawyer and editor of The Hollywood Reporter. This email is part of Puck, our new journalist-owned media company focusing on the power centers of Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Washington, and Wall Street.

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But first...

Thursday Thoughts…

Three hot-topic predictions today:

Chappellegate Is Over: After a week of repeatedly stepping in dog doo-doo over the Dave Chappelle special, Netflix co-C.E.O. Ted Sarandos finally struck the right tone in his apology tour interviews Tuesday night. “I screwed up” is not something most media leaders are willing to say. After the staff walkout on Wednesday in support of trans employees and voices, and Sarandos’ commitment to do better, my bet is this controversy will now die down.
I.A.T.S.E. Is a Done Deal: Yes, the below-the-line guild membership will approve its new contract with the studios. You think the union’s leadership would have closed where they did if they thought there was a chance the rank and file would say no? They went in with goals and got most of them. In all guilds, 10 percent to 15 percent of members will never be happy, and these days, those people tend to lash out on social media. That’s fine, that’s how elections work. But now the trades are suggesting widespread unhappiness? That’s silly. Feel free to come at me if I’m wrong, but this is done.
Nastiness Is the New Normal: So long, high road, welcome to the new underground sewer of Hollywood talent relations, where studios trash the stars that trash them. Fresh off Disney calling Scarlett Johansson greedy and insensitive to Covid, Warner Bros. took aim at former Batwoman star Ruby Rose, who claimed abuse on the set, including, bizarrely, that ex-Warners TV C.E.O. Peter Roth “couldn’t stop making young women steam [his] pants” while he was wearing them. Forget “we respectfully disagree;” Warners went right to the “revisionist history” defense, revealing that Rose was fired for “multiple complaints about workplace behavior that were extensively reviewed and handled privately out of respect for all concerned.” Respect?

Today I’m starting an occasional series looking at the future of movies. First up...

Sponsored by Amazon Prime Video

MovieFutures: What Is Theatrical Now? The Walls Are Closing In

Most Wall Street analysts believe that theater revenue in 2022 will drop below even pre-pandemic levels, with trickle-down impacts across the entire movie industry.

MATT BELLONI

It’s been a rough few weeks for Emma Watts. First, the veteran film executive was swiftly bounced from Paramount, just days after Brian Robbins took over for Jim Gianopulos as studio chairman. Then, this past weekend, The Last Duel, a $100 million medieval drama that Watts put together and championed when she ran production at Fox, laid an egg the size of Matt Damon’s head when it finally hit theaters. A $4.8 million domestic debut? No, the flop of the year is not a great talking point as she is taking meetings for her next job.

I’ve never been a fan of those Monday morning quarterback stories about What Went Wrong when a movie doesn’t work. Most movies don’t work. The hits pay for the bombs. Nobody knows anything, yadda yadda. But… The Last Duel feels like it was made in another era of Hollywood, and in many ways it was. Way back in the year 2019, I almost understand why Watts was enamored with the package, and why Disney, which had just taken over Fox, would let her roll the dice: Three “names” (Damon, Adam Driver, Ben Affleck); Ridley Scott directing something that, at least on a one-sheet, feels Gladiator-adjacent; and a rising star in Jodie Comer at the center of it all. Used to be you could assemble those elements, throw $30 million of Disney marketing president Asad Ayaz’s money at the wall, and at least generate a decent opening, especially overseas.

But even before the pandemic, that just wasn’t good enough anymore. Stars guarantee nothing without I.P., so a full-freight, original studio movie like Last Duel had to hit the bullseye. Now?? The entire dartboard has been shrunk, thanks to Covid and the accelerated shift to streaming. Kids think theaters are for old people, and now old people think theaters are dangerous (and they’re finally figuring out how to use the Netflix their kids hooked up for them). Marvel and horror? Still fine. But sending an adult-targeted, non-branded movie like Last Duel into theaters isn’t just a longshot, it now feels like a fool’s errand.

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