Putin’s inner circle has always abided by an unwritten code—“ponyatie,” or understandings—about the rewards of loyalty and the fate of traitors. Prigozhin, lured into thinking that he might be special, was never an exception.

Despite Western media assertions that the half-coup heard round the world was a sign of instability, my sources around Moscow and the Kremlin tell me that Putin is once again in full control. But questions linger about a future purge and missed warning signs.