WALL STREET
William D. Cohan
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July 10, 2022
The Musk Reckoning
Wall Street predicts Elon’s exit collateral damage. Plus: Is Netflix’s true EBITDA $20 billion, or adjusted to $6.5 billion? The company won’t say—which may be one reason Wall Street isn’t buying.
Dylan Byers
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July 6, 2022
Fast Times at Sun Valley High
Stock prices may be down, but the mood isn’t dour—though companies that once fantasized about shedding linear assets for that coveted Netflix multiple are now thankful for their dual revenue streams. That may be one reason why Disney has abandoned talks to spin ESPN.
William D. Cohan
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July 6, 2022
The Bull Case for Netflix
Yes, the stock is down 70 percent and there are legitimate frets about an emerging ad-tier, churn, and increased competition. But the company is only trading at about 4x EBITDA while Tesla is trading at, um, 55x. This is not investment advice, but something weird is going on here.
William D. Cohan
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July 3, 2022
Will Trump Get Indicted?
What the lawyers are saying. Plus notes on S.B.F.’s dip-buying moves and Elon Musk’s new competition.
William D. Cohan
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June 29, 2022
The Billion-Dollar Book Deal of the Century
Penguin Random House has been waiting two years to pay some $2 billion for Simon & Schuster. Is the Justice Department sticking up for aggrieved authors, or being a political pain in the ass?
William D. Cohan
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June 26, 2022
Crypto Civil War & Wall Street’s ‘24 Agenda
News and notes on Bitcoin’s true believers, BuzzFeed’s self-immolation, Buffett’s $19 million meal, and the cynical upside of divided government.
Dylan Byers & William D. Cohan
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June 22, 2022
The Bull Case for Chapek & Zaz in Sun Valley
The inside conversation about why Wall Street analysts love Disney but are worried about Warners. Plus notes and predictions ahead of Sun Valley.
William D. Cohan
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June 22, 2022
Elon’s Pivot & Banker Bonus Blues
Notes on Musk’s latest head-scratching monkey wrench in the Twitter saga, and the unveiling of a grim reality: inflation may be roiling the nation, but senior bankers are worried about what the stagnating deal flow will mean for their seven-figure bonuses.
William D. Cohan
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June 19, 2022
Elon Agonistes & The Bull Case for Crypto
Notes on the Musk-Twitter town hall and Wall Street’s evolving arbitrage opportunity, and some hard truths about the crypto crash.
William D. Cohan & Matthew Belloni
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June 19, 2022
Bob & Shari’s Sun Valley Winter
The inside conversation in Hollywood and Wall Street about Chapek’s future at Disney and Redstone’s M&A itch amid a looming recession.
Dylan Byers
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June 17, 2022
Zaz & His Ax Man
Speculation inside Warner Bros. Discovery points to fresh “synergies” coming for HBO Max’s unscripted team. Plus other notes and news on Chris Licht’s town hall and Joe Kahn’s grand plans.
William D. Cohan
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June 15, 2022
Larry Summers, Obama & A Fed Counterfactual
In an alternate universe, Obama would have picked Larry Summers to run the Fed in 2013. And we probably wouldn’t be in our economic fix if he had made good on his promise.
William D. Cohan
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June 12, 2022
Elon vs. The Arbs
There are a lot of losers in Elon Musk’s hostile, weird, off-the-rails takeover/walk-away from Twitter—the company’s employees and board, chief among them. But the most vulnerable players may be the arbitrageurs.
William D. Cohan
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June 8, 2022
The SPAC Stars of ’21: Where Are They Now?
The pandemic will forever be remembered on Wall Street as the height of SPAC-mania, a consensual hallucination in which everyone, from Ackman to A-Rod, got in on the SPAC craze. It may have been easy to raise all those billions, but it turned out to be much harder to put them to work.
William D. Cohan
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June 5, 2022
Dimon’s “Hurricane” & Sheryl’s Wall Street
Wall Street and business gossips are already speculating about Jamie and Sheryl’s next moves. Plus: How Elon shot himself in the foot.
William D. Cohan
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June 1, 2022
Biden’s Fed Gamble
Biden has wholeheartedly endorsed Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s painful decision to take the punchbowl—ZIRP, QE, etc—away after 14 years. Does the political calculus suggest a short-term recession and midterm bloodbath followed by a rebound in ‘24?
William D. Cohan
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May 29, 2022
Elon’s Razor
The simplest explanation for Elon’s recent moves is that he still intends to buy Twitter. But his new financing plan, restructured to protect Tesla, will require friends to share the risk. And with a purchase price this high, and leverage so low, who else would want it, anyway?