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The Best & The Brightest
United Health Group
Leigh Ann Caldwell Leigh Ann Caldwell

Happy Sunday, and welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Leigh Ann Caldwell. How are the holidays already upon us? I hope you’re winding down for the year. I surely am. But I have a lot of news to bring you first…

Also, since it’s a time of joy and giving, here’s your chance to finally purchase a Puck subscription. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. Do something nice for yourself!

In today’s issue, field notes from a week that nearly broke House Republicans: the Obamacare mutiny, Trump’s empty Oval Office speech, the ongoing Epstein debacle, etcetera. But it’s the lack of any legislative agenda for 2026—and the president’s urge to keep saying so out loud—that could be the nail in the coffin for the party’s electoral prospects. Plus, I’ve got new, scoopy details about how Hakeem Jeffries almost lost his big healthcare win this week.

Mentioned in this issue: Hakeem Jeffries, Mike Johnson, Josh Gottheimer, Frank Pallone, Richie Neal, Richard Hudson, Suzan DelBene, Kevin Lincoln, Adam Gray, Jonathan Nez, Eli Crane, Elise Stefanik, Bruce Blakeman, Mike Waltz, Liz Mair, Dusty Johnson, Mike Lawler, and more…

Let’s get started…

  • Speaker Hakeem?: Did House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries secure the speakership this week? It’s entirely possible. Jeffries helped make healthcare the focus of the government shutdown, and while Speaker Mike Johnson was miraculously able to unite Republicans on a piecemeal healthcare plan, the process has deeply divided his conference. Meanwhile, Jeffries notched another major win in recent days after four Republicans signed on to his long-shot discharge petition to extend the A.C.A. for three years—giving Democrats not just a rhetorical victory but an actual legislative one. Plus, Johnson’s decision to delay the inevitable vote on it until January means healthcare will continue to be front and center. Right now, Jeffries’s standing within the caucus seems nearly on par with when he gave his “ABCs of Democracy” speech after becoming the first Black Democratic leader.

    But it was an agonizing process. Last weekend, swing-district Republicans became furious with Johnson for not giving them a clean vote on extending the subsidies, and top House Democrats were divided on a strategy. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who authored his own bipartisan discharge petition that involved a one-year extension and the creation of a 20-person bipartisan committee, pushed Jeffries to corral Democrats behind his plan, three sources told me. At that point, Gottheimer’s petition already had 12 Republican signatures. If Jeffries had given the green light, there surely would have been enough Democratic votes to reach 218, Gottheimer argued.

    But other Democrats, including ranking members Frank Pallone and Richie Neal, encouraged Jeffries to hold out. There was internal opposition to Gottheimer’s proposal, and some Democrats were confident that a group of moderate Republicans furious with Speaker Johnson would break from their party and back Jeffries’s longer extension. Every Democrat had signed on to that proposal, and they needed only four Republicans to support them.

    Ultimately, after a weekend of intense internal debate, the often ponderous Jeffries sided with Pallone and Neal, and held out for Republicans who were ready to defect and undercut their leadership. One Democratic source called it a “painful” weekend that could have turned out much differently. But it was the culmination of 100 days of much more aggressive messaging and risk-taking for Jeffries since the run-up to the government shutdown—a huge deal for a typically cautious leader.

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  • Two districts to watch: Last week, during my Puck Power Breakfast with N.R.C.C. chair Richard Hudson and D.C.C.C. chair Suzan DelBene, I asked both lawmakers to name one congressional seat to watch in 2026. Hudson predicted that Republican candidate Kevin Lincoln, a former Marine who went on to serve as mayor of Stockton, would unseat Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California’s 13th district. It was a bold statement given that the district became even more Democratic in California’s mid-decade redraw. But the new district lines include parts of Stockton, the Democratic city that nevertheless elected Lincoln.

    For her part, DelBene said to watch out for Jonathan Nez, who is running for the second time in Arizona’s 2nd district against Republican Rep. Eli Crane. Nez, the former head of the Navajo Nation, lost to Crane by nine points in 2024. But without Trump on the ballot, and amid a deteriorating political environment for Republicans, DelBene said Nez is “a great example of a great candidate and a great opportunity for us.” (You can listen to my entire conversation with Hudson and DelBene next week on The Powers That Be.)
  • Stefanik blues: Alas, even the most clever Republicans keep mistakenly expecting that blind loyalty to Trump will be reciprocated. Rep. Elise Stefanik, who announced she is dropping her bid for the New York statehouse and won’t seek reelection in Congress, is only the latest victim of this illogic. She said in a statement that her decision to drop out was in large part because a costly primary would damage the party, and she wants to spend more time with her family.

    Stefanik had bet everything on the president. A former moderate, she utterly transformed herself in the Trump era into a self-described “ultra-MAGA” politician. She was the first Northeastern member of Congress to support Trump, and ardently convinced other Republicans that hugging the president and appeasing his voters was the best way to win. She was widely dubbed Trump’s “attack dog” during his first impeachment, and defended him even after January 6.

    But her loyalty was not reciprocated. Trump initially screwed her over by pulling her nomination to serve as U.N. ambassador in order to shore up Johnson’s narrow majority to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill. (The job ultimately went to former national security advisor Mike Waltz as punishment for Signalgate.) This time around, she needed Trump’s endorsement in her contested primary against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, but he refused to do so. The day after Stefanik dropped out, Trump endorsed Blakeman. Merry Christmas.

Now for the main event…

Lame Duck Soup

Lame Duck Soup

Trump’s pronouncement that he’s “done” with legislation for the next three years has rattled and confounded House Republicans, who desperately need some kind of agenda to have any hope of retaining their majority. Good luck in ’26…

Leigh Ann Caldwell Leigh Ann Caldwell

Last week, when I sat down with Rep. Richard Hudson, the North Carolina lawmaker made a stunning admission. As chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Hudson’s job is to defend the G.O.P.’s narrow House majority. But when we discussed midterm messaging, he was insistent that the party had already fulfilled President Trump’s campaign promises. “We delivered almost the entire agenda already—all the promises he made, we’ve delivered,” he said. When I asked whether “we’ve done everything” was really the best campaign slogan, Hudson paused. “That’s a good question,” he said candidly. Republicans will come up with something, he added. “I promise you, we’ll have a campaign plan. We’ll give it some cool name, and we’ll take it to the voters.”

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

United Health Group
United Health Group

At UnitedHealth Group, we’re reshaping care with a new approach: Helping physicians focus on patients and prevention, instead of paperwork.

 

See how we’re helping patients live healthier lives with a new model for health care.

To be fair, Trump hasn’t given them much of an agenda to work with. On the contrary, since the July passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which extended tax cuts and flooded Homeland Security and the Pentagon with cash, the president has mostly disengaged from Congress. (Obviously he wasn’t that involved before, either.) “We got everything done,” Trump said in October. “We’re done for four years. We don’t need anything more from Congress.”

Of course, few G.O.P. lawmakers will publicly blame Trump for undermining their position. Most Republicans I spoke to said they hadn’t heard his October remarks, and Speaker Mike Johnson downplayed them, arguing that much of what Trump says gets taken out of context. He assured me that Trump, his staff, and Johnson’s own staff all “work around the clock.” Ever the optimistic soldier, Johnson also said he “can get broad consensus” in the early months of next year on some sort of healthcare plan, either through reconciliation or good old-fashioned regular order legislation (which will need 60 votes to pass the Senate).

But the upshot is that Republicans don’t have a forward-looking agenda to run on in 2026. It also hasn’t helped that Trump has repeatedly dismissed the term “affordability” as a “hoax” and a “Democrat scam.” Earlier this week, the president delivered a perplexing 20-minute live address to the nation from the Oval Office during which he declared that he had “brought more positive change to Washington than any administration in American history,” and that any weakness in the economy is the fault of the previous administration.

And yet, in a campaign year looking downright challenging for Republicans, a strategy built on touting alleged accomplishments could be lethal. “People vote much more based on what they’re being promised than who has had a track record of delivering for them,” Republican strategist Liz Mair said.

Johnson’s Pickle

There’s no denying that Trump is determined to keep the House. He has promised to devote some of his post-election war chest to this effort (although he hasn’t said how much or how he’ll spend it), and he launched a bloody mid-decade redistricting effort to shore up seats. But more than anything, these measures are motivated by self-preservation rather than grand legislative ambitions. His aides and people close to the administration have repeatedly told me that Trump doesn’t want to spend his lame duck years fending off investigations or even impeachment—even if the latter often feels like a Democratic fever dream.

United Health Group
United Health Group

But Trump can’t seem to stop himself from relegating Congress to the proverbial dustbin. Last month, speaking to reporters at the White House, he repeated that he has no further demands of the legislative branch, saying, “We don’t need it because we got everything.” Rep. Dusty Johnson, who is leaving Congress to run for governor of South Dakota, told me that House Republicans have discussed another big, partisan bill, and chalked the president’s comments up to “managing expectations” given the difficulty of finding consensus.

But one Republican House member who has grown aggravated with the administration warned that Trump’s refusal to work with Congress will result in his having “temporary presidency.” That is, Trump is governing largely by executive order—221 of them so far—which can easily be reversed on day one of a Democratic presidency. (The House has voted to codify more than 50 of them, but fewer have been signed into law.) “If they want to take that approach, I think it’s only to the detriment of themselves,” the lawmaker said.

Indeed, despite the administration’s continued zeal to bypass Congress and govern by executive order, lawmakers might have little choice but to take up major issues soon. If Trump goes to war against Venezuela, Congress is supposed to have a say. If the Supreme Court overturns Trump’s tariffs, Congress might need to intervene. Regardless of what the Supreme Court decides, Mair told me, Republicans might need to roll back some of Trump’s tariffs to lower prices for voters ahead of a challenging midterm year. Rep. Hudson, who’s worried about winning the House, told me the administration needs to score trade deals and settle retaliatory tariffs in the next six months in order to stabilize the economy. But regardless, finding a legislative solution won’t be easy given the largely Trump-compliant conference. “They need to figure out how much they care about keeping their jobs,” she added.

Of course, compliance has been a running theme in this Congress, which has done little to demand its own relevance in the second Trump administration—and the president has been perfectly happy to fill the vacuum. During his address to the nation last week, Trump said he’s going to unveil “some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history,” suggesting he’s planning to bypass Congress on this issue as well.

Speaker Johnson has largely abetted this state of affairs. He kept the House out of session for seven weeks during the government shutdown, and since then, he’s struggled to keep members in line as polling has soured for Republicans on healthcare. Republicans have joined three discharge petitions—tools that are designed to circumvent leadership—including the one by Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries to extend A.C.A. subsidies for another three years. I was told that several Republicans were racing to be the fourth and final signatory, and that more Republicans are expected to vote for it when it comes up in January. “Doing nothing is not an answer,” Rep. Mike Lawler said. “I didn’t come here to be a potted plant. I came here to actually do stuff to help my constituents.”

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