A MESSAGE FROM BAYER

Two weeks into what could be a very long government shutdown, the Senate is stuck in a miserable cycle: Democrats continue to vote against stopgap funding; President Trump is not engaged; and Speaker Mike Johnson is keeping the House out of session. Anxious staffers are speculating that this federal work stoppage could surpass the longest one in history—the 35-day shutdown of Trump’s first term. And at this point, there’s little reason to believe otherwise. On Wednesday evening, Senate Democrats rejected the G.O.P.-led funding bill for a ninth time.

On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune will try to create a crack in the stalemate by putting the fiscal year 2026 Defense Appropriations Act on the floor. The vote, one Republican aide told me, will show what “level of obstruction” the Democrats are willing to engage in. The party can also use the vote to attack Democrats—especially Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is up for reelection in a purple state—for failing to stand up for the troops. And yet it seems doubtful at this point that Republicans can win over the seven or eight Democrats they need to reach the 60-vote threshold required for passage. For their part, Democrats were still working out what to do during a private lunch today. Advancing a DoD funding bill doesn’t address healthcare, after all.

A MESSAGE FROM BAYER

But no matter how tomorrow shakes out, there’s a prevailing belief among Republicans that Democrats will start relenting after the “No Kings” protests scheduled for this weekend in cities and towns across the country. After all, the thinking goes, Democrats would rather head into those rallies without the base jeering them for caving to the opposition. There are also critical gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia on the horizon, along with a vote on redistricting in California, that Dems are hoping will generate enthusiastic turnout for their side. But my conversations with insiders indicate that not only are Republicans far underestimating Dems’ long-term pain tolerance, they’re also misunderstanding the party’s pressure points.

More likely, Democrats are biding their time until at least November 1, when constituents start seeing higher prices for next year’s A.C.A. insurance plans. But the reality is that most predictions for what would move either party have been pretty worthless: Republicans originally thought Democrats would fold after a few days of voting against stopgap funding. When that didn’t pan out, however, no one pivoted toward more open communication. Instead, members of leadership have largely stopped talking to one another, and even moderate Democrats intent on reaching a deal to reopen the government are having little luck getting through to their Republican counterparts—who insist that they’ll only enter into negotiations after the government is reopened.

Democrats have responded to the escalation by adding new demands of their own. Originally, they had asked for the repeal of cuts to healthcare programs, namely Medicaid and Obamacare. But given Trump’s flagrant willingness to circumvent congressional authority, they’re now insisting that safeguards be written into any funding bill to prevent the president from further usurping the power of the purse. On that matter, I’m told that Republicans and Democrats have begun thinking out loud about how to undo some of the damage Trump’s now inflicting, whenever the government is open again. These are not negotiations or even real conversations, I’m told, but the expression of thoughts that could lead to something that reins in the president. (Like you, I’m skeptical.)

Meanwhile, the Democrats I’ve spoken with don’t seem to regret forcing the healthcare issue in exchange for their votes—even though it’s given Trump an opportunity to test their constitutional powers. After all, the president was doing all this anyway, they say. “That’s been going on since January 20, the first day of this presidency,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries told me. Said Arizona Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego: “I think it’s just par for the course. I mean, before we shut down, he’s already been firing people.”

Congressional Republicans, who have mostly acquiesced to surrendering their constitutional powers by, for instance, agreeing to $9 billion in rescissions and allowing a $4.9 billion pocket rescission to go into effect, appear to be unbothered by the president’s rejiggering of accounts. “There are consequences to a shutdown, and credit to them for finding ways to alleviate some of the consequences, to mitigate the pain,” one Republican leadership aide said. G.O.P. Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota echoed that sentiment. “Democrats are leaving the administration—and us—no choice,” he told me, adding that Democrats are the ones who are exacerbating the administration’s end-run around Congress. “It’s ridiculous for Democrats to complain about rescissions or anything else by the administration, and then shut down the government so we can’t do our appropriations.”