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You don’t need to be Oz Pearlman to predict that this Thursday’s Chiefs-Cowboys game will set viewership records. Not only will the game feature the NFL’s two most popular franchises, but Nielsen has also changed its ratings methodology to more generously account for out-of-home and streaming consumption, which should help boost numbers beyond the 42.1 million viewers who watched the Giants-Cowboys on Thanksgiving in 2022. Some have even predicted that the game could eclipse 50 million viewers, but my best sources believe the final tally will come in a little below that gaudy figure.
But don’t sleep on the early Thanksgiving matchup. Here’s my real prediction: The Packers-Lions game on Fox will have fewer viewers than Chiefs-Cowboys, but it will wind up as the second-most-viewed NFL regular season game of all time for all the same reasons that Chiefs-Cowboys is likely to break records. Two popular teams playing under the new Nielsen rules. Plus, Fox will carry the game on Tubi, adding a significant number of viewers. (To wit: The Super Bowl averaged 13.6 million viewers on Tubi in February.)
Alas, we won’t know if I’m right for a ridiculously long time. Typically, networks release an incomplete viewership number the day after the game to offer guidance on what the final tally will be. This year, though, the NFL and networks have agreed to wait until next Wednesday (December 3!) to release the numbers—allowing them more time to synthesize the data privately before announcing a record.
It also appears that the NFL has slightly changed its strategy of scheduling games this Thanksgiving. The league and networks know that they’ll get a large audience regardless of who plays, which is why the Cowboys have played the once-hapless Commanders four times since 2016. There’s a growing sense, however, that the league shouldn’t take its Thanksgiving audience for granted. We’ve seen more marquee matchups in recent years, and that’s what we’re getting once again on Thursday.
EverWonder Tees Off
Back in February, it made a lot of sense when I reported that EverWonder Studio, the nonfiction production company backed by Jeff Zucker’s RedBird IMI, was negotiating to produce LIV Golf. Netflix had already used EverWonder for many of its live events (including the Mike Tyson–Jake Paul boxing match), and Warner Bros. Discovery worked with the studio for its golf productions.
Well, the talks have progressed far enough that a deal appears to be imminent. Nothing has been signed, but the two sides have reached consensus on most of the big deal points. It looks like EverWonder will produce LIV Golf events starting with LIV Golf Riyadh on February 4-7. The entire tournament will be played at night, “under the lights,” according to LIV’s website. To date, LIV Golf has produced its own events, primarily using in-house staff.
My interest has less to do with what LIV Golf decides to do with its TV production—its tournaments didn’t even average 350,000 viewers on Fox this year, and its FS1 performances rarely cracked 100,000. I’m curious about what this deal means for EverWonder as an independent producer of live sports. Unlike legacy media companies, streamers like Netflix and YouTube have not set up their own production infrastructure. As they continue to amass live sports rights, they are likely to rely on independent producers.
This isn’t an entirely new business: Independent producers have been a staple of local and regional telecasts for decades. But independent production companies have not really had a presence on the national level. (CBS produced last year’s Netflix Christmas games while NFL Media produced the studio shows, and EverWonder was listed as executive producer.) Maybe that’s about to change.
November Madness?
Brett Yormark and the Big 12 made news this morning when the conference took a 15 percent stake in The Players Era Festival, a college basketball tournament held this week in Vegas. Word is that Players Era organizers offered the same deal to the three other power conferences. Sources described the ACC and SEC as currently more receptive than the Big Ten, but it’s too early to tell whether they have a real interest.
The tournament, which launched in 2024, has already taken a lot of buzz away from traditional early-season competition like the Maui Invitational and Battle 4 Atlantis. It has 18 men’s teams this year and expects to expand to 32 next year. (WBD holds the media rights to this year’s event. Next year’s rights are up for grabs.) As part of its deal, the Big 12 is guaranteed to have eight bids, with each team guaranteed $1 million to use for its N.I.L. pool. It’s an indicator that the college game isn’t immune to the kind of eventizing that we have seen across the sports landscape as leagues and conferences search for ways to cut through the noise during the long regular season.