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July 21, 2025

The Best & The Brightest
Modern Ag Alliance
Leigh Ann Caldwell Leigh Ann Caldwell

Hello, and welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Leigh Ann Caldwell.

President Donald Trump is running his classic public relations playbook on the Jeffrey Epstein saga: Distract (D.N.I. Tulsi Gabbard released files on the Martin Luther King Jr. assassination today, and Trump’s Truth Social feed has been extra eclectic lately); attack (The Wall Street Journal and the media); deflect (rehashing the Russia investigation and invoking James Comey); shift blame (to President Barack Obama and the radical left!). Yet he can’t quite seem to shake the issue, which has surely been the most personally impactful of his second presidency.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has been trying to help Trump out, telling reporters that he won’t bring up the nonbinding Republican resolution calling on the Justice Department to release the “credible” Epstein files before the House leaves town for the August recess at the end of the week. Today, my colleague Abby Livingston digs deeper into the Epstein fallout.

But first…

  • The bill that keeps on giving: The Congressional Budget Office has updated its estimate of the cost and impact of the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill, which Trump signed into law earlier this month. The C.B.O. now assesses that the bill will cost $3.4 trillion over 10 years, and that 10 million people will lose their health insurance. This is a bigger price tag than its previous estimate of $3.2 trillion, though fewer people are now expected to lose health insurance than the 11.8 million it tallied previously. That drop comes thanks to the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling against a provision that would have cut more funding to states that provide Medicaid to undocumented immigrants.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Modern Ag Alliance
Modern Ag Alliance

Members of the agriculture community are raising serious concerns about the MAHA Commission’s recent report, which questions the use of safe, essential crop protection tools. 

 

Backed by decades of research, these safe, trusted tools underpin American agriculture—helping farmers produce more food, keep prices from rising, and advance conservation practices like no-till farming that improve soil health and reduce emissions. 

 

That's why MAA recently joined over 250 agricultural organizations in a letter to the administration underscoring a simple point: sound science—not fearmongering—must shape agricultural policy.

  • Trump’s endorsements: Trump endorsed two additional Senate incumbents on Truth Social: Sens. Mike Rounds of South Dakota and Dan Sullivan of Alaska. The party’s most vulnerable incumbents—Sens. John Cornyn of Texas, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Joni Ernst of Iowa, and Susan Collins of Maine—have yet to get the nod. I’ve reported here that Trump is considering a double endorsement of Cornyn and his primary challenger Ken Paxton, which would not be great for Cornyn. He’s unlikely to endorse Cassidy, who voted to convict him during his impeachment trial in 2021.

    The Sullivan endorsement is interesting. The senator’s strategy for placating Trump without alienating Alaska’s voters has been to vote yes and stay quiet, an approach utterly unlike that of his colleague Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who won a long list of concessions that soften the BBB’s impacts on their state in exchange for her vote. While Sullivan had been concerned about how his rural constituents would be affected by the rescission of funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, according to Republican sources, he voted for it anyway. Murkowski did not. Sullivan doesn’t oppose leadership and doesn’t break from Trump, who crowed that Sullivan “ALWAYS delivered for Alaska” in his endorsement post.

    Democrats, however, think that Sullivan’s votes on the OBBBA and on rescissions have created an opening in the state. Former Rep. Mary Peltola, who lost in the 2024 election, is considering running against him.
  • An empty chair: Rep. Mark Green, the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee, has resigned from Congress just six months into this term—a rare move for someone helming a powerful committee. Green tried to retire last Congress and was talked out of it; then he foreshadowed that he might do this after Republicans passed the BBB, which ballooned the budget for the Department of Homeland Security, especially for ICE and Customs and Border Patrol. So Speaker Johnson’s slim majority is even narrower today than it was yesterday. (House Republicans will elect a new chair of the committee tomorrow.)

Now here’s Abby…

Alone on Epstein Island

Alone on Epstein Island

Inside the Epstein anxiety on Capitol Hill, where Republicans can’t begin their recess quickly enough as the fracas continues to intensify—and Trump keeps making it worse. Yes, Democrats are benefitting from the scandal, but mostly as a chance to message…

Abby Livingston Abby Livingston

Anxiety is ripping through the Republican conference on Capitol Hill as everyone wonders whether the Jeffrey Epstein saga will have legs long enough to walk the remainder of Trump’s agenda—and the Republican majority—right off a cliff. Democrats, naturally, are enjoying their moment of schadenfreude as they, along with some strange Republican bedfellows, work to keep the issue alive through the coming August recess, and perhaps into the midterm season.

There is, obviously, widespread disgust over Epstein’s depravity, which is why many on both sides of the Hill won’t let the scandal go. But political prognosticators have heralded Trump’s imminent downfall countless times before—after the Access Hollywood tape, after January 6, after his dozens of indictments, etcetera. And this isn’t the first time pundits have claimed that a “fissure in the MAGA coalition” would do irreparable damage to his presidency. (Recall the interparty conflicts over tariffs and the bombing of Iran, neither of which managed to sidetrack Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill.) In many ways, the political stakes for Trump are also lower now than in those previous instances: He’s constitutionally barred from running for a third term, and his one big legislative push is in the rearview.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Modern Ag Alliance
Modern Ag Alliance

From soybean and corn growers in the Midwest, to cotton growers in the South, to sugarbeet producers in the West, farmers across America are deeply concerned the MAHA Commission is setting the stage to disregard decades of scientific research and recommend approaches that will ultimately jeopardize family farms, threaten the availability and affordability of healthy food, and undermine America’s national security. 

Still, that’s cold comfort for certain pockets of the G.O.P. Many Republicans remain concerned about MAGA’s lingering fury over Trump’s Justice Department declaring its investigation effectively closed, despite an earlier promise from A.G. Pam Bondi to release more files. Meanwhile, Bondi’s latest request for the release of grand jury testimony hasn’t quieted demands for more information, from both the online right and Democratic members of Congress including Ro Khanna and Jamie Raskin, the Judiciary Committee’s ranking member. That said, MAGAworld did experience a moment of unity while attacking The Wall Street Journal for its report on the cryptic birthday note and lewd drawing Trump allegedly sent to Epstein, which the president denies having created.

In the span of two weeks, the metastasizing scandal seems to have engulfed every part of the MAGA coalition, with Elon stirring the pot on X (after vowing to form a third party); Trump suing Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Journal and Fox News; and right-adjacent influencers ranging from Theo Von to Shane Gillis who aren’t letting this story die. It also didn’t go unnoticed that Joe Rogan’s much-anticipated interview with Democratic Rep. James Talarico, a potential Cornyn/Paxton Senate challenger, was everywhere this weekend. Many of these voices helped attract politically disengaged voters to the Trump coalition, and insiders worry their current posture might affect Republican turnout in the midterms.

Praying for Recess

For Capitol Hill Republicans, especially those in leadership, the best-case scenario would involve the Justice Department making a round of sanctioned Epstein disclosures to satisfy the MAGA base. But their more immediate goal is to simply get through this week—which should wrap the summer session before August recess—while keeping Epstein-related resolutions off the floor, and getting members safely out of town and away from national reporters as soon as possible. Political scandals have a way of dying out over recess periods, although Trump has complicated this plan by urging the Senate to stay in session to confirm several of his nominees.

Some Hill Republicans are doing their part to jeopardize this plan, too: M.T.G. is hopping mad about the lack of disclosures, and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, a perennial thorn in the president’s side, told Axios that he’s hoping momentum builds over the recess for a resolution he co-sponsored with Khanna, which would force the release of all unclassified materials related to the Epstein investigation. (Earlier today, House Speaker Mike Johnson shot down the idea that any vote on the issue would be held prior to recess, even on a softer, nonbinding, Republican-led resolution calling for the release of “credible” files related to Epstein.)

Modern Ag Alliance
Modern Ag Alliance

At the same time, Trump’s own efforts to downplay the issue seem to be having the inverse result—a case study in the Streisand effect. Trump, to be sure, has used social media to deny ties to Epstein. But he’s snapped at reporters asking Epstein-related questions, while rehashing tried-and-true talking points, including that Obama officials should be charged with treason for the Russiagate “hoax.” His director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, tried to run her own interference by releasing the F.B.I. files on the Martin Luther King Jr. assassination, which infuriated the civil rights leader’s family. He’s even pushed to have the “Redskins” and “Indians” team names reinstated, threatening to pull funding for a new Commanders stadium if the team refused to revert back to their old name. “They’re going to throw what they can at MAGA, and it may not be enough,” a Republican consultant told me.

“Too Much Epstein”

Democrats, meanwhile, have seemingly reached a near-unified consensus on how to navigate the issue: Use the drama as ammunition for midterm messaging by painting Trump as an out-of-touch, elitist promise-breaker unconcerned with vital cost-of-living issues. This tack was previewed by D.C.C.C. chair Suzan DelBene on Al Sharpton’s MSNBC show this weekend, when she said that the fight over the files was part of a “trend we’ve seen from the president and from Republicans. He made a promise to be transparent. He’s broken that promise.” Meanwhile, the party has been enjoying watching Republicans squirm. “It’s hilarious,” a usually grouchy House Democratic operative told me.

But many Dems have also bought into the conventional wisdom that voters are exhausted by the party’s constant litigation of the president’s misdeeds, and that it’s lost them elections in the past. They also know that demanding files that may or may not exist isn’t exactly a plan to lower costs. “Stoke the fire, but don’t get too caught up in it,” said a House Democratic member. “Then pivot to, This is just another thing that Trump misled the American people about. He also misled them that he was going to tackle the high cost of living for everyone.”

Other Democrats worry there’s such a thing as too much Epstein. “I don’t know what doing a discharge position does to fix the cost of groceries, or anticipate all the cuts to Medicaid and all that jazz,” the House Dem operative said. “I’m confused as to why we are messaging on this when it’s the Republicans’ mess.” In any case, multiple Democrats told me they don’t anticipate using Epstein in advertising a year from now, but that there’s value in how the scandal knocked Trump and Republicans out of their post-BBB-passage euphoria. As one Dem House strategist told me, “It’s not a thing next year, but it’s fun for now.”

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