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Texas Democratic Rep. Al Green is perhaps best known for waving his cane during last year’s State of the Union address, and for his ceaseless determination to impeach President Trump. But the 11-term congressman may soon attain a new distinction as one of the first House members to lose reelection this cycle. On March 3, the 79-year-old lawmaker will face a serious primary threat from the 37-year-old Rep. Christian Menefee, another incumbent, whose recent internal polling put him a staggering 20 points ahead of Green.

Green’s predicament is emblematic of the perfect storm facing Democratic incumbents this cycle: rising anti-establishment sentiment, a Republican redistricting effort in his state, and a younger challenger who was sworn in to replace an incumbent, Sylvester Turner, who died in office. But Green, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, is also battling another seemingly unstoppable force: the crypto lobby.

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He’s by no means the first target of the crypto industry, which really started to throw its electoral weight around last cycle. In 2024, crypto-aligned super PACs, most prominently Fairshake, helped dash the Senate dreams of Rep. Katie Porter in the California primary (spending $10 million against her) and then-incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown in the Ohio general (where they spent $40 million). Pro-crypto groups also added to the deluge of pro-Israel spending against progressive Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri, both of whom lost their primaries. (Bush is expected to file for a rematch against Rep. Wesley Bell tomorrow.)

Now, however, it’s Green’s turn in the barrel. Fairshake plans to deploy $1.5 million on an ad endorsing Menefee. The ad itself includes no mention of crypto, or even of Green. But the subtext of its call for “generational” change is hard to miss—and for those in the know, so is Green’s history of skepticism toward the crypto industry. “They are becoming really, really organized,” a Democratic strategist said of Fairshake. “And much like [the A.I. lobby], they are spending a lot, and are investing more and more in electoral races. It’s so fast-moving, and the politics of it is unsettled.”

After its successes last cycle, Fairshake is doubling down. The super PAC reported nearly $200 million in cash on hand at the end of 2025, when Bitcoin and other digital currencies were still riding high on the election of Donald Trump—the self-styled “crypto president.” Now, despite the extreme bear market since October, the industry’s lobby is expected to join A.I. and pro-Israel groups as one of the major spenders during the Democratic primary season. Indeed, the group already has more than twice as much money on hand as it did at a comparable point in 2024.

After Texas, Fairshake’s next big play will be in Chicago, where the PAC is spending against two Democratic state legislators in open-seat House races—Illinois State Sen. Robert Peters and State Rep. La Shawn Ford, who both voted for state regulations on the industry. Notably, Peters is running against former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in his attempted political comeback following a decade in prison. Jackson’s campaign website states that he’s open to developing “a framework to responsibly address reasonable regulation for cryptocurrency to protect consumers and investors.”

Back in D.C., some formerly crypto-skeptical Democratic House members are taking note of the onslaught—as well as the ad quality—and wondering if they might warm to the industry after all. “Many Democratic incumbents have seen the ads coming out of Fairshake and the crypto PACs and are reconsidering their availability for meetings,” a Democratic consultant told me.

Democratic observers suspect that the industry’s next targets will include Green’s colleagues on the House Financial Services Committee, as well as some members of House Energy and Commerce, which regulates interstate commerce, and the House Agriculture Committee, which has oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Fairshake spokesman Josh Vlasto, the revered and feared former top Schumer aide and Ronald Perelman deputy, said that their decision-making process is very straightforward: “We support candidates across the ideological spectrum,” he said. “The one thing they have in common is they are pro-crypto.”

Beneath its politically agnostic umbrella, in fact, are two allied, party-specific PACs: Defend American Jobs, which works to elect Republicans, and Protect Progress, which backs Democrats. But the former is effectively irrelevant in this cycle, given the preponderance of Trump-aligned, pro-crypto candidates. Instead, almost all of the action is on the Democratic side, where industry strategists say they’re targeting their dollars based on an assessment of whether Democratic incumbents or candidates are crypto skeptical or coin curious.

For those Democrats they deem friendly, the rewards can be substantial. Last cycle, Protect Progress put millions behind then-Reps. Ruben Gallego and Elissa Slotkin, both of whom won election to the Senate. At the time, Fairshake also backed Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota and former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (both now running for Senate), and several other House Democratic incumbents. Among them were prominent Frontliners including Reps. Don Davis of North Carolina, and Pat Ryan and Tom Suozzi of New York. Still, there is palpable concern among House Dems that Fairshake will get much more aggressive this cycle against incumbents they see as pro-regulation.

Of course, there are also signs of pushback—especially as A.I. and crypto-mining data centers become points of contention with voters. American Priorities, a Democratic super PAC, was recently launched to counteract Israel groups’ primary spending—although its stated spending target is just $10 million. So far, the PAC has spent $600,000 to take out Rep. Valerie Foushee of North Carolina, who is being challenged by Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in the March 3 primary. The American Priorities–funded ad invoked crypto as a pejorative, dinging Foushee for getting about $1 million worth of crypto support in her 2022 race. (That money was not from Fairshake, but rather a Sam Bankman-Fried–backed super PAC that’s no longer active.)

It’s early days—there’s still a tidal wave of crypto spending likely to arrive in the spring and summer. But the industry already has many Democratic consultants and members off-balance. “It was on nobody’s radar as an electoral issue until very recently,” said the Democratic strategist who’s working on House races. “This is something that people have had very little time to sit with.”

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