A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Usually, Big Pharma diverts blame from the industry, calling others “bad actors” and cost drivers of healthcare. 

But a recent bidding war for a weight-loss company showed they’ll tear each other down for the sake of their own profits. 

The war may have ended, but the carnage revealed that these companies know that unethical, anti-competitive practices are rampant in the pharmaceutical industry. 

Big Pharma understands their anti-competitive practices drive up prescription drug prices, and so do Americans. It’s time for Congress and the Administration to hold the real bad actors accountable with commonsense reforms. 

And now, my conversation with Leigh Ann…

The House G.O.P. is staring down a slow-motion crack-up, and the people inside the Capitol Building know it. With as many as 20 Republicans expected to call it quits in the coming weeks—not flame-outs like Marjorie Taylor Greene, but planned retirements at the end of their terms—the party’s governing majority seems to be breaking under the pressures of dysfunction, infighting, and, of course, Donald Trump. Even in power, Republicans feel powerless: They have no agenda, little to legislate, and no independence from a White House that treats the preeminent branch of government as a nuisance.

Earlier this week, Leigh Ann Caldwell joined me for an episode of The Powers That Be to help make sense of why governing has gotten so miserable for House Republicans, how Speaker Mike Johnson has effectively outsourced his power to the president, and what a Democratic majority under Hakeem Jeffries might look like in 2027. We also explored where Democrats might actually legislate, how much Trump’s political calculations would shape a divided government, and more. This conversation has been slightly edited for length and clarity.

Peter Hamby: You reported that several Republican lawmakers and aides expect a wave of House G.O.P. retirements in the coming weeks—as many as 20. We’re talking about formal retirements, not Marjorie Taylor Greene–style resignations, correct?

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Yes, that’s correct. It’s the people who are just kind of done with Congress. Of course, some have family issues and health things going on, but it’s more of an indictment of serving in Congress as a Republican in these times. It’s not fun, not fulfilling. When you see the writing on the wall that Republicans are very unlikely to be in the majority after the midterms, Republicans are asking, Why do I want to do this? Being in the minority in the House is the absolute worst. So it’s an indictment of what it’s like to be a member of Congress, but it’s also an indictment of the political environment—a clear sign that it’s not looking good for Republicans maintaining their majority.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Usually, Big Pharma diverts blame from the industry, calling others “bad actors” and cost drivers of healthcare. 

But a recent bidding war for a weight-loss company showed they’ll tear each other down for the sake of their own profits. 

The war may have ended, but the carnage revealed that these companies know that unethical, anti-competitive practices are rampant in the pharmaceutical industry. 

Big Pharma understands their anti-competitive practices drive up prescription drug prices, and so do Americans. It’s time for Congress and the Administration to hold the real bad actors accountable with commonsense reforms. 

Please explain why life would suck for a Republican member right now in the majority. Is it just that they passed the Big Beautiful Bill and now there’s nothing left to do on the horizon?

That’s one of many things. They can’t agree on how to address healthcare. They can’t even agree on whether affordability is an issue that they should discuss. They literally have no agenda right now. There are lots of complaints that leadership has to appease and deal with people who make a lot of demands on the right, like the Freedom Caucus. Then there’s the critique that leadership isn’t letting people legislate. Discharge petitions—typically used by the minority to push a piece of legislation because they don’t have any other way to get it onto the House floor—are increasingly being used by Republican members, who are in the majority, because Speaker Johnson will not allow legislation to go through committee. People are spending all their time fundraising. Redistricting has been hugely annoying to a lot of these members, especially the Texas and California members.

It’s just a lot of headaches, and people are asking whether it’s worth it—especially heading into what they think will be the minority after the midterms, given the November and Tennessee electoral results. People are like, Why do I want to be in the minority and have to defend the president on investigations and subpoenas and potential impeachment? Oh, and there’s also the issue that Donald Trump cares very little about Congress. He’s trying to take away a lot of powers of Congress. They feel a lack of independence—even though they’re allowing him to do this—because they’re afraid to speak out. It’s just a very unfulfilling job right now.

Can you speak to the leadership dynamics here? I feel like in the past, if people were unhappy with leadership, rather than retire en masse, they would just oust the speaker and try to put someone new in. Or is that impossible when Donald Trump is in the White House?

As long as Donald Trump has confidence in the speaker, nothing is going to happen—and that is still the case. Senior leadership aides and other Republicans tell me that the White House knows what Mike Johnson is, and that is someone who will do what the White House wants. Speaker Johnson made the choice to defend the president at all costs. He made the decision that it was going to be much easier to manage a narrow majority if he had the president on his side, versus trying to assert an independent legislature.

So they’re standing by him for now. Meanwhile, you have an unproductive Congress because the president is doing things he wants to do through executive order and bypassing the legislature. This Congress has passed 45 bills this year that have been signed into law. The last Congress, with the Republican majority, was the least productive Congress since at least 1972, and over two years they had 274 bills signed into law. We’re halfway through. So this is going to be by far the least productive Congress unless something dramatically changes—a really bad sign for convincing people to stick it out and continue doing these jobs.

Say Democrats win the midterms and you have Speaker Jeffries. What do you think Washington looks like the following two years? Are we in for a repeat of 2019 and 2020, when Republicans held the White House and the Senate, and the Democrats were throwing bombs from the House?

Yeah, I think so. There are going to be so many investigations, a lot of subpoenas, a lot of inquiries. This is actually what Donald Trump fears and why he wants to keep the House majority. It’s not because he has some big legislative agenda—frankly, there is no legislative agenda. It’s because he doesn’t want to be investigated. People have told me this from days after he was inaugurated.

Is there going to be an impeachment? I’m actually super skeptical. It didn’t prove to be politically fructuous for Democrats last time, but who knows what happens between now and then? Regardless, it will be very uncomfortable for Republicans if they have to defend a president who could be a very unpopular lame duck president in a year or so, especially if it’s a divided Congress. That’s where Democrats are going to put their focus.

Where would they investigate? Are we talking foreign gifts and family enrichment? Are we talking DOGE, and getting to the bottom of what the president and Elon Musk did at that time? Where would the president be vulnerable to investigations, subpoenas, or rowdy Oversight hearings on C-SPAN?

We still have a year before the midterms, but I think it’s going to be a lot of the corruption, the crypto, the taking gifts from foreign governments. We’ll see what sort of investigation or inquiry is launched with the Venezuela boat strikes.

Let’s not presume Democrats won’t win back the Senate. They might, but they’d have to do really well in places they might not expect. But if they just capture the House, what will Democrats proactively do when it comes to legislation? It doesn’t sound like they’d be able to do much beyond holding hearings.

Maybe there’s something in the housing space; that’s something that Republicans are becoming more interested in. Healthcare is the issue of the day right now. But I have zero belief that Republicans are going to be able to come to support anything regarding healthcare. Maybe that’ll continue to be an issue. Maybe they’ll do some stuff around the edges. When it’s a completely divided government, that’s where you can tinker with small but perhaps impactful reforms.

But then it’s really up to Trump—and this president and the current Congress have been adamant that Democrats be cut out of everything. He has repeatedly said not to work with Democrats, so it would be really interesting to see whether his calculation changes with Republicans in the minority. I suspect it will because he really cares about his legacy. But Donald Trump is still going to control and steer what’s possible.

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