William D. Cohan • March 22, 2026

Wall Street’s Iran “Bear Trap”

Markets are pricing in a wide range of Iran war scenarios, from a quick bounceback to a prolonged global recession. Even professional contrarians warn that investors may be sucked into a bear trap if Trump abruptly changes course. But as the Mooch observes, hubris is one hell of a drug.

William D. Cohan • March 18, 2026

The Walls Are Closing in on Sam Bankman-Fried

The FTX founder’s appeals for a new trial have fallen on deaf ears, and his mother’s intervention appears to have backfired. Now, with the Justice Department going nuclear and Republicans lining up to ensure Trump doesn’t issue a pardon, S.B.F. may be running out of chances to escape his fate.

William D. Cohan • March 15, 2026

What Happens if a $40 Trillion Bubble Bursts?

There’s been a simmering anxiety since the fall that trouble is brewing in the private-credit market, and high-profile redemption requests have only added to the panic. There may be cockroaches in the system, but Wall Street superstars Marc Rowan and Jon Gray insist it’s all just a bunch of bad actors on the periphery.

William D. Cohan • March 11, 2026

Did Trump Just Start a Recession?

A very candid chat with oil market expert Dan Yergin on the potential unintended consequences of Trump’s war in Iran.

William D. Cohan • March 8, 2026

$16.02 Candles

The strangest number in Larry Ellison’s $111 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery may be $16.02—the price he and RedBird agreed to pay for $47 billion of new Paramount Skydance stock, a 60 percent premium that has Wall Street scratching its head.

William D. Cohan • March 4, 2026

David Ellison’s $18 Billion Question

On an investor call Monday, Ellison promised that ParaBros would generate $18 billion in EBITDA in 2026—including at least $6 billion in dreaded “synergies.” But good luck growing revenue while cutting the combined company to the bone.

William D. Cohan • March 1, 2026

Is S.B.F. Possibly… Innocent?

The imprisoned FTX founder is now taking a three-pronged approach to getting out of jail—claiming that prosecutors threatened his partners, Sullivan & Cromwell had a conflict of interest, and his crypto exchange was actually solvent all along. Oh, and he’s also sucking up to Trump. Will any of it work?

William D. Cohan • February 25, 2026

Ted, Don’t Do This…

Even if Ted Sarandos can charm D.C. into blessing his Netflix–Warner Bros. deal, the savviest M&A move at his disposal is to let the Ellisons win the trophy, overextend their balance sheet, then sit back and wait for the sequel.

William D. Cohan • February 22, 2026

The Netflix Killer Non-Acquisition Theory

As its Warner Bros. deal gets increasingly complicated, some on Wall Street are wondering whether Netflix’s secondary motive is to poison the well for Paramount Skydance by running the clock while David Zaslav splits WBD in two. “Buying off the competition for two years,” said one person close to the action, “is good business all day long.”

William D. Cohan • February 18, 2026

O Warner Brothers, Where Art Thou?

The WBD board has reopened the bidding war, granting Paramount Skydance a final window to submit its best offer. But is Larry Ellison really prepared to backstop what Ted Sarandos & Co. are mocking as “the largest proposed leveraged buyout in history”?

William D. Cohan • February 15, 2026

Kathy Ruemmler Confidential & A Netflix Nightmare

News and notes on another Epstein casualty, plus the latest twist in the Warner Bros. Discovery saga.

William D. Cohan • February 15, 2026

Drahi’s Debt Cartel Strikes Back

The French debt king, telecom visionary, and Sotheby’s owner may have finally met his match: Apollo, Ares, BlackRock, et al. have countersued in order to coordinate their efforts against him. Their legal battle could put an end to this era of creditor-on-creditor violence.

William D. Cohan • February 11, 2026

Why Goldman Is Sticking With Kathy

The curious case of Kathy Ruemmler—Goldman Sachs’s chief legal officer and former counsel to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama—who’s mentioned 9,000 times in the Epstein files, and who, at the end of the day, may have just been doing her job.

William D. Cohan • February 8, 2026

Mr. Sarandos Goes to Washington

Generally speaking, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate appear to hate Netflix’s deal for WBD almost as much as they hate each other. Could Ted Sarandos’s recent hearing in the upper chamber mark the beginning of the Ellisons’ comeback victory?

William D. Cohan • February 4, 2026

A Creditor-on-Creditor Violence Safe Space

Having had enough of “liability management” carnage, U.S. companies facing Chapter 11 have started going across the pond for a softer landing.