Did Trump Just Start a Recession?

Donald Trump
On Monday, Trump said the war was “very complete” and that oil companies should “show some guts” and send loaded ships through the Strait. The insurance companies that underwrite these massive tankers often feel quite differently—after Trump spoke, however, the price of a barrel of oil dropped to around $90, following an intraday spike to nearly $120. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
William D. Cohan
March 11, 2026

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As faithful readers know, Dan Yergin—the Pulitzer Prize–winning author, guru of the oil markets, and vice chairman of S&P Global—comes round my place in Nantucket each summer for a sit-down to discuss the global energy outlook. Today, however, I am fortunate to have Dan here a few months early, for obvious reasons: The Mad King has launched his war of choice against Iran, and it’s roiling the oil markets; the military action in the region has all but closed the Strait of Hormuz.