Peter Hamby • November 5, 2024

The Margin of Error Election

November 5 is upon us: At long last, we can stop texting each other polls showing yet another godforsaken tie, we can put to bed the spin and mumbo jumbo that grifters have been peddling about early-vote numbers, and we can mercifully stop talking about Tony Hinchcliffe. Here are my surprises, predictions, bellwethers, and other last-minute observations.

Tara Palmeri • October 31, 2024

Inside Mar-a-Lago: PA Anxiety, Chief of Staff Games & Czar R.F.K. Jr.

The Trump campaign has paused its premature celebration and fallen into sweat mode, as early-voting numbers indicate more women are turning up than men in must-win Pennsylvania, and operatives are bringing out the briefcases for lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” says a source.

Abby Livingston • October 31, 2024

The Honeymooners

While their Republican colleagues have been slap-fighting, Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership triumvirate has kept the Democratic caucus unusually unified. But what happens if they lose their friends in the White House? Or if they win the majority and have to actually… lead?

Tara Palmeri • October 29, 2024

Fear and Polling in Las Vegas

Jon Ralston, the bard of Nevada election analysis, talks zombie voters, Elon’s ground operation, and why Republicans may have the House edge.

Abby Livingston • October 29, 2024

DelBene at the Buzzer

The Democrats’ congressional rainmaker on their chances of retaking the House, how developing software at Microsoft prepped her for Congress, and the hardest part of chairing the D.C.C.C.

Peter Hamby • October 29, 2024

De Tocqueville Does Detroit

Scary and sobering electoral truths (at least for Democrats) from my recent tour of Real America.

Tara Palmeri • October 25, 2024

Trump’s Premature Early-Voting Celebration

Fairly or not, the good vibes inside Mar-a-Lago are real, and multiple campaign sources have told me that they’re encouraged by early voting behavior so far in key battleground states. “It hit Trump in the last couple of weeks that early voting is a good way to win,” a person with knowledge of his thinking said. Here’s what the numbers really say.

John Heilemann • October 24, 2024

Wes Moore’s Election Nightmare

A conversation with the Democratic governor of Maryland, decorated Army veteran, and likely future presidential candidate about why Donald Trump is no friend of the military—and America needs to take his most outlandish rhetoric seriously.

Tara Palmeri • October 22, 2024

Anzalone at the End of the World

After a campaign launch that was all about joy, Kamala Harris is hammering a darker message for her campaign’s closing argument. “There’s a certain P.T.S.D. that needs to be engaged with voters,” says Democratic pollster and campaign advisor John Anzalone. “There’s an amnesia about Trump. People need to be reminded of his behavior.”

Peter Hamby • October 21, 2024

Kamala’s Latin Lesson

While the campaigns fixate on the Charlamagne vote, the biggest racial realignment in American politics hasn’t been among Black or white voters, but rather among Latinos, who have been drifting away from the Democratic Party in the Trump era. Harris is hoping her campaign can win them back before it’s too late.

John Heilemann • October 21, 2024

Kamala Before the Storm

As pre-election Democratic bedwetting reaches clinical levels, Harris senior advisor David Plouffe joins John Heilemann to provide a full-spectrum data corrective: how the campaign is microtargeting in battleground states, why McLaughlin is wrong about Harris’s ceiling, and when to ignore Nate Silver.

Tara Palmeri • October 18, 2024

Mar-a-Lago Murmurs: Irrational Confidence, R.N.C. Bashing & More Corey Drama

Further news and notes from inside Trump’s brain: his growing conviction in victory, his backup plan to contest the results, and who among his allies—LaCivita? Michael Whatley?—will get blamed if it all falls apart.

John Heilemann • October 17, 2024

The End of the G.O.P. As We Know It?

Pre-gaming the nerve-wracking, existentially terrifying, down-to-the-wire Trump vs. Harris showdown on November 5 with The New York Times’s Peter Baker and The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser.

Tara Palmeri • October 15, 2024

Plouffe Love

John McLaughlin, Trump’s favorite pollster, returns to run the numbers on the final leg of the campaign: How Trump is expanding his base with unreliable first-time voters, Kamala’s ceiling, and what her advisor David Plouffe gets right and wrong about the race.

Peter Hamby • October 15, 2024

College Vote Confidential

Interviewing college students on a swing state tour through the South, a couple themes emerged among the voters who may decide the election: Young women are fired up for Kamala, Black men are Trump-curious, and “Brat summer” is definitely over.