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The Margin of Error Election

November 5 is upon us: At long last, we can stop texting each other polls showing yet another godforsaken tie, we can put to bed the spin and mumbo jumbo that grifters have been peddling about early-vote numbers, and we can mercifully stop talking about Tony Hinchcliffe. Here are my surprises, predictions, bellwethers, and other last-minute observations.

kamala harris georgia
If metro Atlanta isn’t popping off for Harris when the returns come in, it’s hard to imagine Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Detroit will deliver good news for Democrats later in the evening. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images
Peter Hamby
November 5, 2024

At some point this week—Wednesday? Thursday?—we’ll learn whether the United States has elected our first female president, Kamala Harris, or decided to run it back with Donald Trump. But the election will also answer a lot of questions about the country, its mood, and the electorate—questions that have dominated the ranks of political pundits and analysts for more than a year now.