While the equity markets continue to process David Zaslav’s announcement that he’s splitting Warner Bros. Discovery into two publicly traded companies—a declining linear television business, run by Gunnar Wiedenfels, known for now as Global Networks, and a Zaz-led, debt-lite, growing, Streaming & Studios business—our friend Rich Greenfield at LightShed Partners offered a few interesting points. First, in his June 11 note, he correctly recalled the original sin of the whole affair: When Zaz closed the deal in April 2022, he guided Wall Street to expect 2023 EBITDA of $14 billion. That initial estimate was lowered to between $10.5 billion and $11 billion, but the actual adjusted EBITDA—don’t do this shit to me on Father’s Day—ended up at $10.2 billion. It’s been downhill from there, with $9 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2024, and what seemed to be a gathering consensus that it would be stuck at $9 billion for the foreseeable future, absent a spin or split.
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