In a few weeks or months, well after the current Capitol Hill speakership drama ends, the nation’s lonely eyes will turn, as they inevitably do at this juncture of the political cycle, to the U.S. presidential race. The build-up to America’s nearly two-year-long mega-event has been more subdued this time around, of course: Biden’s re-election indecision, Trump’s waning influence, and doubts about DeSantis’s national profile have lent an air of uncertainty regarding how, exactly, the national political-media apparatus is supposed to get this thing started. But, if recent history is any guide, now is about the time that things kick into high gear: Obama launched his historic 2008 campaign on a frigid day in February of ’07; McCain told Letterman of his intentions that same month. Ted Cruz kicked off the 2016 cycle in March of ’15. Bernie, Warren, and Klobuchar all announced their 2020 runs by the mid-winter of ’19.

For the American political media, the months leading up to this time are a high-stakes trade window, when editors and executives go scouting for top talent that may be loose in the saddle elsewhere, or grease existing contracts to ensure the retention of their biggest stars. It’s already been a busy poaching season: Politico has lured its beloved native son Jonathan Martin back from The New York Times with a big salary and a sweetheart R.W. Apple-style gig. The Times, in turn, has poached star reporter Jonathan Swan from Axios, along with The Wall Street Journal’s Michael Bender, a Trumpworld whisperer, for lead roles on the 2024 beat.