Trump’s ’26 Tsunami Warning

Republicans are grappling with a stunning Democratic upset: a swing of 30+ points away from the G.O.P. in a deeply conservative part of the state. While the race was local, political operatives are already gaming out the impact on the midterms, how it could scramble the fundraising race, and what it portends for the Hispanic vote in the age of ICE.

Texas Republicans had no reason to worry back in June, when Governor Greg Abbott created the vacancy by appointing then-Senator Kelly Hancock as state comptroller. Wambsganss, in addition to her fundraising edge, had the backing of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and, eventually, Trump—usually plenty to hold a local Republican seat in Texas. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Abby Livingston

February 2, 2026

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There’s a reason this weekend’s Democratic upset in a special election for the Texas State Senate is making headlines nationally. In 2024, Donald Trump won the district in Tarrant County, which includes the northern half of Fort Worth, by 17 points. It is, quite literally, Taylor Sheridan’s Landman country—an area built on ranching, oil, and defense contracts that hasn’t voted for a Democratic state senator since 1978. And yet, on Saturday, thirtysomething union leader Taylor Rehmet crushed Trump-endorsed Republican Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points—a 31-point swing toward Democrats in a little over a year. “People are freaking out,” a G.O.P. consultant in Texas told me as the votes were being counted.