Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest, your daily window into the inside conversations and water-cooler chatter gripping this town, from the White House to Capitol Hill, K Street, the Pentagon, and the media orgs covering it all. In tonight’s issue, my conversation with Puck’s Peter Hamby about DeSantis’s electability quandary, Trump’s polling uncertainty principle, and the upside of Biden’s semi-unofficial shadow campaign.

But first..

• Sean Spicer’s Cha-Cha: The newly nimble Sean Spicer is back on the market after his contract negotiations with Newsmax went south, bringing an end to his rarely-discussed political talk show Spicer & Co. Spicer touted “big projects in the works” ahead, of course, so I checked in with Trumpworld to see if Spicer would be two-stepping his way back into the inner circle. Surely Trump’s undersized team, which just added Jason Miller, could use more spokes/support or at least a high-name I.D. surrogate outside of MAGA ‘Evita’ Kim Guilfoyle. One Trump advisor described the chances of a Spicer reunion as “unlikely, but possible.” Until then, I hold my breath for the Spicer-Trump show part deux.

  But Spicer may not be the only former Newsmax host potentially looking to explore, or return to, the Trump roost. A number of hosts, including Eric Bolling, have been arguing with Newsmax over contract terms, I hear. (Newsmax C.E.O. Chris Ruddy did not get back to me.) In some cases, the hosts are being asked to expand their digital duties or contribute to other shows or engage more with social media. There have been a slew of exits behind the scenes as well: On Friday alone, the network’s C.O.O. of broadcasting, Jon Lee; the vice president of booking, Stephanie Cassidy; and the head of engineering, Walter Raps, all quit.

Peter: I certainly think last week’s spectacle laid bare the challenge facing DeSantis if he decides to run. A good example: I turned on Fox News the evening of Trump’s arrest to watch his speech at Mar-a-Lago. When the talking heads weren’t turning red with fury, they were exalting Trump like beggared pilgrims seeing the Pope for the first time, except the guy in the pulpit was sermonizing an orgy of bash-the-left whataboutism and right-wing id.

What else could Republicans possibly want? All of that with Trump’s text-to-donate number broadcast out to more than 4 million viewers. It’s very possible that by the end of this week, Trump will have raised almost $20 million for his campaign off just this news cycle, alone. How in the world does DeSantis compete with the overwhelming might of Trump’s attentional powers? That was really the question looming over the G.O.P. primary last week.

But I guess I disagree with some of the snap punditry out there on this story. The notion that Trump suddenly has the 2024 nomination locked up is larded by conservative media groupthink and happens to overlook a few key facts that seem like they’d be relevant to voters, including Republican voters: Donald Trump is far and away the most unpopular politician in the country, and right now he’s more unpopular than he’s been in five years. He’s dragged the Republican Party through losses in three consecutive national elections. He’s now facing down more than two dozen felonies related to paying off women he cheated on his wife with. Two-thirds of independent voters support the criminal charges, according to a CNN poll last week. He’s also being investigated for several other crimes. I dunno, those things seem kinda bad to me. I know those factors might hurt him more in a general election than in this primary, but DeSantis plans to sell himself as a MAGA-style conservative who won’t lose an election or go to jail. That contrast grew even starker last week.

Peter: I also remember hearing from pundit-land that Trump was supposed to benefit from the F.B.I. search of Mar-a-Lago last August. But that news cycle lasted a few days and disappeared into the noise of all the other Trump scandals. A few months later, Trump’s mystical political powers, hyped by Fox News, crashed into the reality of the midterms, when his brand of politics lost once again. So, I’m taking a longer view on this presidential race, which is far more than just a few news cycles.

It’s important to point out, too, that while Trump has jumped in the polls since his indictment, DeSantis hasn’t seen his favorable ratings tumble at all among Republicans, even after a series of attacks from Trump. Republican voters, especially, in the early caucus and primary states, remain open to choices other than Trump. Six months ago, that would have been unthinkable. DeSantis, if he runs, has to go out and take the nomination from Trump, which will not be easy, especially as he drifts into becoming the choice of the so-called “establishment.” But Meatball Ron is still better positioned than any Republican in the country not named Trump.

Tara: I agree with that. I did notice that the conversation in Florida has shifted from when will he announce—which is looking like a July 4 announcement spectacular—to the question of whether he will actually run. And it’s not just the political insiders asking, either, but donors and everyday voters wondering if DeSantis is really up for it now that the party wagons are circling Trump.

Peter: Tara, what do you think of Biden’s delayed announcement? It was supposed to be March, then April, and now his team is signaling they are in no rush.

If he wasn’t going to run, I’m told, we would know for sure by now, so that others would have time to prepare. But as much as I believe this, I also know that Biden is a great deliberator who works on his own time and he did end up backing out in 2016 after extensive reflection and pondering. What do you think, Peter? Is it just spin as Biden tries to figure out if he’s up against the virile Ron DeSantis vs. the Toxic Trump?

Peter: I saw an amusing quote from a Biden confidante in a CNN story last week, which echoes what you’re hearing. “He’s not ambivalent about serving a second term, but he’s in no rush to be a candidate again,” this person said. “What’s the upside?” Fact check: Mostly true! And it’s especially true with more news out there about Trump and felonies, which has tanked Trump’s approval rating down to an abysmal 38 percent, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight average. I know the White House was cranky about the TV networks dedicating so many minutes to the Trump Show last week, but if the networks aren’t going to cover Biden’s latest statement on clean energy, at least they’re talking about how wacky and unstable the country’s other major political party is.

In the meantime, why does Biden have to announce anytime soon? To swat away gadflies like Williamson and Robert “Disinformation” Kennedy, Jr.? To do more pesky interviews with impatient reporters? To tire himself out and gaffe his way through a steak fry? The only advantage would be to get an early start on fundraising, but that’s generally not a huge worry for incumbent presidents, who know the money is going to be there. The media might be impatient for a Biden announcement, I guess, but the media also tends to overrate the importance of presidential re-election announcements. Voters don’t really see much of a distinction. They still mostly just see a president, not a candidate, especially in the year before the election when the other party is convulsed in a primary fight.

Remember, Barack Obama announced his re-elect in April of 2011, with a video message and a barrage of fundraising emails. In May, he did his first rally in Ohio—which, quaintly, used to be the country’s most important swing state. Time flies. But those rallies were maybe Obama’s biggest political strength, and he deployed them as much as possible in campaign years. Biden’s biggest strength isn’t as a candidate, though. It’s being president—a senior statesman. Not very exciting and probably too old, but a safer choice than the MAGA freakshow on the other side. A splashy re-election announcement doesn’t really change the dynamic for him.

Biden is obviously not beloved by voters, but I think as the White House looks at 2024, they’re taking some comfort in the fact that Democrats are casting ballots even if they aren’t super enthusiastic about the man helming the party. That’s what happened in the midterms, when Democrats and independents showed up in key states to block Trumpy Republicans from taking power. It also happened last week in Wisconsin—maybe the country’s most divided battleground state—when Democrats rolled to victory in a hugely-expensive and closely-watched Supreme Court race that was defined by abortion rights. The gutting of Roe and the ongoing prospect of Trump are keeping Democrats engaged even if their presidential nominee isn’t. Biden will have to remind the country why he’s a better choice come next November, but jumping in the race early doesn’t seem as important as it might have in a pre-Trump world.

Tara: I’ve got to agree with you, Peter, and in the meantime Gavin Newsom seems to be keeping himself busy with his red-state tour, and J.B. Pritzker is holding his breath about landing the D.N.C. convention in Chicago. Perhaps these two are keeping their engines warm, just in case.