Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Abby Livingston.

We’ve entered the dog days of summer, and the political class is using this week to catch its breath in anticipation of the frenetic, post-Labor Day campaign season. But before all that kicks off, I wondered what the future held for members who have chosen not to return to Congress in January—namely, who will manage to secure a lucrative sinecure on K Street. Sure, there are a few top recruits (more on that below), but veteran lobbyists told me that the talent pool just isn’t what it used to be. Go figure…

But first…

🇺🇸 Dylan on ABC’s muted negotiation: ABC News is still negotiating with the Trump and Harris campaigns over whether or not it will mute microphones at the network’s presidential debate on September 10. Trump once again committed to the debate this week and declared that the microphones would be muted, which worked to his advantage in the previous debate against Biden. The Harris campaign is rightly telling reporters that the issue hasn’t been resolved. In any event, ABC News is proceeding under the expectation that both candidates will participate in the debate, hot mics or not. —Dylan Byers

🎧 Peyton Manning’s second life as a media entrepreneur: In case you missed it, today marked another milestone for Puck’s ever-expanding podcast cinematic universe. Our resident sports business maven and author of The Varsity private email, John Ourand, kicked off his brilliantly titled podcast, The Varsity, with a roving conversation with NFL all-time great Peyton Manning. They discussed the origins of his post-football career, the rise of the ManningCast, the genesis of Omaha Productions, and much, much more. [Listen here, and subscribe here and here]

📽️ Hollywood on the Potomac: My partner Bill Cohan is easily the leading expert on the tortured history of Paramount Global, the company that was created from the disastrous mashup of CBS and Viacom by Shari Redstone, who inherited control of the historic assets from her ruthless and innovative father, Sumner. The Redstones, of course, were the real basis for the Roy family in HBO’s Succession, and they are soon to be gone from the scene for good. Bill has another expert piece out today about how Edgar Bronfman Jr.’s last-minute bid to steal Paramount away from David Ellison and RedBird Capital’s Gerry Cardinale fell apart at the finish line. The Invisible Bronfman is a fabulous tale of ego and a lack of execution, and great for cocktail hour in late August. Now all that Redstone, Cardinale, and Ellison need is Lina Khan’s approval… [Read Here]

And now, onto the main event…

Indeed, early next year, numerous lawmakers will cast their final votes at the Capitol and seek a higher calling: lobbying—allowing them to finally demonstrate their long-suppressed fealty to fossil fuels, shipping, industrial farming, pharmaceutical research, artificial intelligence, the carried interest loophole, Big Tech, and the myriad other beleaguered mom-and-pop industries that thanklessly keep our economy afloat, and massively enriching themselves along the way. Bless their hearts, and God bless these United States of America and its well-lubricated revolving door.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the ideal K Streeter should be a font of Capitol Hill institutional memory, have spent a cycle or two leading one of the campaign committees—allowing them to walk in the door having already earned the undying loyalty of former colleagues—and also done a stint (or served as chairman) on one or more of the committees governing appropriations, interstate commerce, defense spending, or Wall Street regulation. Members who can check those boxes—particularly the “ones with the most exposure to Wall Street and industry,” as one Republican lobbyist told me—can basically write their own ticket.

Ideal members-turned-lobbyists usually fall into one of two camps. There are the rainmakers, like Trent Lott and John Boehner, who know how to whip a vote; and the workhorses, like John Breaux, whose public image as a glad-handing fraternity president belies a wonky understanding of the minutiae of committee work.

But after calling around to some of the most reputable shops on K Street this week, I was surprised to discover how remarkably unenthusiastic most were about the latest matriculating class of ex-members. According to sources, only a handful are likely to be seriously recruited to represent the biggest companies and trade associations on the Hill. “I think we will see a lot of members practice law back home,” the Republican lobbyist told me, derisively.

After all, lobbying itself has changed over the decades, thanks to more restrictive ethics rules around matters like political donations, bundling, dining out, accepting loans, and even time-boxing the revolving door, itself. The levers of influence have also changed: It’s now arguably more effective to influence members by riling up constituents back home through TV ads and digital targeting, than to soften them up with the promise of a campaign contribution over La Croixs at a Barracks Row fundraising reception.

Republicans, in particular, also don’t serve as long as they used to, owing to the structural upheaval within the party—the primarying from MAGA members and, frankly, the existential chaos of it all. The result is that outgoing members have less knowledge about the inner workings of Congress and thinner Rolodexes. They also now tend to arrive in the private sector with fewer marketable skills. An attack-dog inquisition of an administration official might go viral and increase follower count, but it doesn’t offer much in the way of value to a K Street firm, which would prefer a lower-key appropriations cardinal or E&C chair. “Very, very few members of Congress make a good lobbyist,” a Democratic lobbyist texted me of the recent crop. “Most don’t even make good business folks. It’s just a different way of thinking. Also, every former member in the back of their mind doesn’t think their political career is over. So they don’t want to do the hard work.”

I heard this sentiment over and over in my conversations—that the caricature of the modern congressperson (lazy, myopic, vain) is often close to the reality. “Most don’t know how to close a deal, don’t know how to do things for themselves,” another Democratic lobbyist noted, adding that many ex-members are lost without the day-to-day support of a full staff. “I probably wouldn’t hire a member. I would hire a legislative director,” said that Democratic lobbyist, who just happens to be a former member.

On the House Republican side, outgoing Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry is considered the get of gets, thanks to his tenure on the committee and his reputation as an expert whip counter within the conference. The other most frequently mentioned House Republican was Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, the retiring Energy & Commerce chairwoman. On the House Democratic side, the talent pool is shallower, in large part because House Democrats, unlike House Republicans, operate without chair term limits—most Democratic committee chairs will finish their careers in those roles. But one Democratic lobbyist mentioned Derek Kilmer and Annie Kuster, noting their workhorse reputations.

Of course, one of the biggest questions in the lobbying community is whether Kevin McCarthy will ever register. Few party leaders were engaged with the rank-and-file for as long as McCarthy was, and it seems obvious that he could get many, many Hill meetings with key members. But post-Hill McCarthy has had interests far away from lobbying—he’s coming off his mostly unsuccessful revenge tour against Republicans who voted to oust him from the speakership and coaching Trump on campaign strategy via appearances on Fox News. In June, he joined the advisory board of enterprise A.I. company C3.ai. There is little evidence McCarthy has any interest in lobbying—or, frankly, has found direction after temporarily occupying the perch he had devoted his life to attaining.

I also found it fascinating, although perhaps predictable, that no vulnerable members in either chamber surfaced in these fantasy drafts. It seems likely that at least a handful of incumbents could be out of work come January, but for now, the consensus among recruiters seems to be that nobody is politically D.O.A. enough to mull over just yet.

There was, however, one surprising name that surfaced: Tim Walz. Yes, the Minnesota governor has another two years left in his term, and he served 12 (albeit rather anonymous) years in the House. But if Walz and Kamala Harris fail to beat Donald Trump this November, he’s seen as a dream get. Indeed, outside of Harris herself, nobody’s stock seems to be higher in American politics right now than Walz’s—including on K Street.