Wes Moore 2.0 & Jeff Roe’s Overturning

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Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest, our newish daily collection of political news from inside the White House, the halls of Congress, national security war rooms and K Street lobbying shops, alike. I’ll be in D.C. later this week, alongside my co-authors Julia Ioffe, Tina Nguyen, and Peter Hamby (and the rest of the team) for Puck’s first annual event with Washington newsmakers at the French Ambassador’s residence. Make sure to say hello if you’re in attendance.

In tonight’s email, Peter and I trade notes on the early ’24 campaign staffing arms race; how Haley, Christie, and Scott et al. can outlast the first rounds of a Trump-DeSantis cage match; whether Glenn Youngkin will follow the Romney or DeSantis playbook; and the possibility that Biden’s re-election goes down with his student loan plan. But first…

Hill Harper Against the Machine

Last week, I reported that there will be a new entrant in the Michigan battle royale for the Senate seat soon to be vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow: The Good Doctor actor Hill Harper, who will not be backing down against the seemingly indomitable Rep. Elissa Slotkin. Since reporting that he will announce his candidacy in April, I’ve learned that Stabenow, likely hoping to avoid Democrat-on-Democrat violence, has suggested to Harper that he run for mayor of Detroit instead, but it didn’t sit well. Stabenow, after all, has been trying to play cruise director of the state party. She suggested that Jocelyn Benson, another fearsome competitor, run for governor.

But I’m told that Harper, an Iowa native who is a Hollywood creature with a coffee shop in Detroit, is looking at Wes Moore as the model for resisting the party machine, after he ran against former D.N.C. chairman Tom Perez as a political neophyte to become the...

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Jeff Roe’s Declaration & the DeSantis Inner Circle

News and notes on the G.O.P.’s early ’24 arms race, the dark horse beneficiaries of the Trump-DeSantis cage match, Glenn Youngkin’s MAGA playbook, and more.

TARA PALMERI

PETER HAMBY

Tara: This already feels like the longest primary ever, especially since it started after the midterms with Trump’s announcement, and yet it has barely even begun! As I’ve noted recently, I’m also hearing that Glenn Youngkin, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie, and Rick Scott are all exploring this idea of a late entry in the 2024 Republican primary, perhaps in summer or even early fall, ostensibly after Trump and DeSantis have had their way with each other. Do you think that’s a viable option?

Peter: My short answer is no, not really. I was struck by a recent New York Times analysis by Nate Cohn showing that there’s actually a pretty decent historical correlation between a candidate’s early support in the polls and the eventual winner of the nomination. Trump in 2016 was the big exception in recent memory, but Cohn’s data is correct. If you’re polling in high double digits at this point in the campaign, you tend to have the best shot. DeSantis (around 30 percent support in most polls)...

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