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With exactly 100 days until the midterms, I interviewed the data gurus at the Cook Political Report on 535 for their latest insights. Erin Covey, who covers the House, told me that Democrats are “definitely” favored to win the majority, but Republicans still have a narrow path to victory. The G.O.P. has been boosted by redistricting, but its candidates would “really have to pitch a perfect game” to hold their majority, she said. Democratic strategists are hopeful that Republicans may have engineered a “dummymander,” spreading the G.O.P. vote too thin and leaving some districts vulnerable to a blue wave.
