Welcome back to The Varsity. I’m John Ourand, and I’m feeling as
patriotic as ever today. And no, I am not talking about the Great American State Fair. What a game last night!
Happy belated Bobby Bonilla Day to all who celebrate. Every July 1 since 2000, the Mets have paid their former slugger(ish) $1.19 million as part of a deferred payout that runs through 2035. Bonilla made this sort of financial structure a feature of pro sports. Closer to my home, the Orioles just made their $3.5 million annual payout to
Chris Davis, who last played for the team in 2020—yes, the same Chris Davis who went hitless in his first 54 at bats in the 2019 season, last eclipsed the Mendoza line in 2017, and was suspended during the Orioles’ 2014 playoff run after testing positive for amphetamines. But I digress…
For today’s main event, we’re visited by my partner Bill Cohan, who stares down the Comcast–NBCUni spinoff that has preoccupied the media M&A set ever since Brian
Roberts announced his intention to decouple his connectivity and entertainment empires. Whatever happens with the deal—and, as I’ve been reporting myself, the analysts are still in the who-knows phase here—will have massive implications for the sports media world, considering NBC and Sky’s combined portfolio. Bill breaks it all down below.
Pod alert: With Wimbledon in full swing, I asked Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated and 60 Minutes
to join the Varsity podcast this weekend to talk about the biggest off-court issues facing the sport of tennis. Also, thanks for all the tremendous feedback from yesterday’s episode, in which Fox Sports C.E.O. and executive producer Eric Shanks went deep on the World Cup.
Also mentioned in this issue: Malik Tillman, Jay
Marine, Raphael Claus, Wemby, Brian Roberts, Mike Cavanagh, Jeff Immelt, Steve Burke, Peter Supino, Jeff Shell, Mike Angelakis, Bob Iger, Dave Faber, David Zaslav, John Malone, Barry Diller, and more.
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Player of the Week: Malik Tillman
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Player of the Week (Honorable Mention): Jay
Marine
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Jay Marine, the head of Amazon Prime Video, has been lobbying
Adam Silver et al. to move the NBA Cup’s knockout-round games from Las Vegas to Butler’s historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for most of the year that he’s had the league’s rights. He got his wish this week. This is only a one-year deal—the NBA is expected to move the semifinals to the home arenas for two of the four teams—but you can expect the league to look into other college basketball cathedrals like Cameron, the Palestra, Allen Fieldhouse, etcetera…
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Down to the J.V.: Raphael Claus, FIFA referee
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That was not a red card in anyone’s world.
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Down to the J.V. (Dishonorable Mention): StubHub
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The ticket reseller is facing
lawsuits after canceling several World Cup purchases. Sure, StubHub refunded the ticket cost, but fans still had to incur thousands of dollars of travel-related losses.
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- The streamer’s reach: The streamers have long used their international reach as a point of leverage in live sports negotiations, and Amazon Prime’s first season of NBA rights have made the case convincingly. Citing data from media measurement firm Fifty5Blue, the streamer told me that viewership for NBA games grew by 129 percent across Europe this season. Plus, Amazon picked up the rights to the NBA Finals in Europe this year, and that coverage was up 130 percent from the
prior season, when the games were carried on various broadcasters in each of the markets. Unsurprisingly, France-born Spurs star Victor Wembanyama’s home country saw the biggest jump: 265 percent.
- A World Cup lead-in: For the week of June 22, World Cup games accounted for 24 of the 25 most-watched sports programs—18 on Fox and six on Telemundo, according to Nielsen. Naturally, those results have caused Fox to use the
tournament to bolster its other sports programming. Back on June 21, the network used a Spain–Saudi Arabia game to lead into an IndyCar race from Wisconsin. The resulting 1.8 million viewership was up 131 percent from the same race last year and more than double last year’s average of non-Indy 500 races on Fox (867,000).
On Saturday, the network plans to use the Paraguay–France knockout match as a lead-in to a first-of-its-kind broadcast where the MLB All-Star Game lineups will
be revealed. When Fox saw the World Cup schedule in early December, its executives approached MLB to allow it to carry an All-Star selection show for the first time, and to pick a couple of rivalry games that would best keep an audience. “Baseball was very much into it, and we made it happen,” one Fox exec told me. The day will feature studio shows from Philly’s Independence Hall, and the soccer will be followed by a duo of regional Fourth of July MLB matchups. Oh, and speaking of which… - Eventizing the Fourth: Every holiday is a new marketing opportunity, particularly for sports leagues. Thanksgiving has been the NFL’s forever. The NBA has claimed Christmas, even if the NFL is taking over that, too. The NHL did a nice job scheduling its Winter Classic around New Year’s Day—at least until the College Football Playoff expanded and reclaimed that date. This year, with all the America 250 regalia in full effect, MLB is
determined to seize July Fourth by integrating the holiday into its schedule to create an annual fan expectation. “We wanted to build out programming to establish the fact that July Fourth and MLB are synonymous with each other,” MLB’s chief marketing officer, Uzma Rawn Dowler, told me this morning.
Fox has rivalry games on July Fourth—Mets–Braves and Cardinals–Cubs—and the All-Star selection show. NBC is branding the next day as “Star-Spangled Sunday,”
with two games on the broadcast network and all the others on Peacock. “Other than the World Cup, baseball is the only sport playing on this holiday,” Rawn Dowler said. “We just felt like it was a great opportunity for us to lean in.”
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Both David Zaslav and Bob Iger considered splitting up their entertainment
conglomerates, though neither ultimately went through with it. Will Brian Roberts actually go all the way?
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On Monday, shortly after Comcast announced its plan to sever its media and technology
businesses, spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky, I hopped on a call with the company’s top executives to understand their logic firsthand. Naturally, the market had reacted positively to the news, with the stock rising as much as 20 percent before ending the day up around 6 percent. Comcast, after all, has had somewhat of a rough go over the past several years: There’s more competition than ever on the broadband side of the business, cord-cutting and declining viewership have eroded the value of
NBCU’s linear TV assets, Peacock is still losing money, and the synergies between the units aren’t what they used to be. Clearly, something had to be done.
Presumably, the market reaction was driven in part by the expectation that the announced split was actually designed to elicit a bidding process for one or both halves of the company—just as when Warner Bros. Discovery set out to break itself in two and ended up being swallowed whole by Paramount Skydance. But on my
12-minute call with top Comcast executives, I was assured that’s not the plan.
It was a point that patriarch Brian Roberts and co-C.E.O. Mike Cavanagh had made earlier in the day on a call with Wall Street analysts, replete with the usual programmed questions, about whether the split will result in “potential strategic opportunities” for the spun-off entities. “Absolutely not,” Brian answered. “Definitely not,” added Cavanagh. Of course, Cavanagh
then proceeded to say he wanted NBCU to “build and invest for growth” and touted “the ambition … to pursue opportunities that keep us ahead” and “the freedom now to explore adjacent businesses.” So which is it guys? Deal or no deal?
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“We’ve
Made a Lot of Money”
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To help illuminate their strategic vision, Brian and Mike offered up some historical context behind
Comcast’s original logic for acquiring NBCU. “When we acquired NBCUniversal more than 15 years ago, the industry looked very different,” Brian explained to the analysts. “At that time, the cable networks were widely viewed as the center of value creation and represented a strong strategic fit with our existing business. At the same time, we saw the potential of a broader media and entertainment platform and invested accordingly, expanding our studios, theme parks, sports, news, and international
businesses, including Sky.” Added Cavanagh, “Where we previously believed that scale and the diversification benefits warranted operating these businesses as one company, we’ve now simply changed our mind about that.”
You can say that again. In my 2022 book about the rise and fall of GE, Power Failure, I documented Brian’s relentless 10-year campaign to get then GE C.E.O. Jeff Immelt to sell NBCU to Comcast. Roberts and Comcast’s Steve Burke, who
was in Immelt’s class at Harvard Business School, played golf and dined with him regularly to ensure Comcast was top of mind. At one dinner at 30 Rockefeller Plaza, relatively soon after GE had bought parts of Universal from Vivendi, Brian told Immelt directly that he wanted to “buy NBC.” But Immelt told him that GE would never sell. Afterward, Roberts was devastated, but Burke told him not to worry and to bide his time.
Burke was right. In the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, when GE
was in danger of going down the tubes because of the near-bankruptcy of GE Capital, Immelt made the fateful call. Roberts scooped up NBCU without an auction, in a two-step deal that valued all of NBCU at around $30 billion—a relative bargain. Roberts took Immelt to the cleaners on that one.
It’s probably fair to say that NBCU was once worth $100 billion, back when it made nearly $10 billion of EBITDA, in 2019. It’s certainly not worth that anymore, considering that all of Comcast
is worth only $85 billion. (Peter Supino, at Wolfe Research, pegged NBCU’s value at $44 billion, or 9x 2027 EBITDA of $5.6 billion.) Still, the NBCU deal has been a great success for Comcast. After all, Comcast was able to get around $10 billion for its stake in Hulu alone, about one-third of what it paid for NBCU altogether. “We’ve made a lot of money,” one Comcast executive told me yesterday about the NBCU deal. “I think we’ve done right by the shareholders.”
Alas, I’m
certain that Roberts felt he had little choice but to move on, given how poorly the Comcast stock has performed in the past year—down roughly 30 percent before Monday’s surprise announcement. Roberts, one of the great media dealmakers of all time, was also effectively sidelined in the battle to acquire all or part of WBD because of Comcast’s weak stock price and some $85 billion of net debt. Those two sobering facts no doubt played a part in the decision to spin off NBCU and Sky into a new,
publicly traded company led by Cavanagh, who has been running NBCU since the defenestration of Jeff Shell three years ago. That will leave O.G. Comcast—the cable, internet, and wireless company with 30 million subscribers—as a stand-alone in the hands of former Comcast C.F.O. Mike Angelakis, who will return as C.E.O.
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Both Mikes have worked with Roberts for years, and he no doubt trusts them completely to steer his
family’s assets for the foreseeable future. On the call with Comcast executives, I was assured that Brian intends to remain “actively involved” with the two businesses, as the controlling voting shareholder of both Comcast and NBCU. But the breakup of Comcast into a media company and a broadband company is also a management succession story, and a damn impressive one, given the quality of the two executives Roberts has tapped. (I have known Angelakis for years, since he was a partner at
Providence Equity. Angelakis had a big role in negotiating Comcast’s initial purchase of NBCU from GE.)
Could the selection of Cavanagh and Angelakis to run the two companies belie Roberts’ true intentions for the assets? Who knows? As my partner Matt Belloni pointed out, Cavanagh “has been running the media business without prior
operational experience at a media company but lots of experience doing corporate transactions.” Angelakis, who previously left Comcast to launch Atairos, a small private equity firm, also has experience with these sorts of transactions. Certainly the media landscape is littered with examples of entertainment companies that talked about splitting themselves up and never did: You may recall Bob Iger’s somewhat fateful interview, three years ago now, with Dave
Faber on the side of a hill in Sun Valley, where he first floated the possibility of spinning off ABC and ESPN. That never happened, of course.
Likewise, a year ago David Zaslav announced the spinoff of WBD’s cable assets from its streaming assets. In retrospect, that announcement merely put the company into play—which may have been Zaz’s plan all along—and resulted in the process of Netflix, Comcast, and the Ellisons’ Paramount Skydance
competing for the company. (Comcast, for its part, never really had a chance in the WBD process, which must have been frustrating for Roberts, given his prowess as a dealmaker. I saw that firsthand 25 years ago while working on the deal for AT&T Broadband, a subsidiary he succeeded in prying out of AT&T despite its not being for sale.)
Supino, for one, isn’t buying what Roberts and Cavanagh are selling. In a note to investors on Monday, he predicted that the company would not, in fact, be
split up. “We believe the breakup plan is strategic to Comcast because it is a legitimately good idea that also strengthens Comcast’s negotiating position with partners who will not want to wait one to two years for an otherwise completed spinout to ‘season’ for tax purposes,” he wrote. He suggested that Charter/Cox could go after the broadband business while Netflix, and maybe Disney, Amazon, and Apple, could go for NBCU, with obvious problems associated with those potential
deals.
Supino was also surprised—as was I—by the laconic nature of such a big and transformative announcement, since it pretty much means the end of the Comcast behemoth as we’ve known it. “A generational conglomerate tracing honored family lines does a strategic 180-degree turn which includes the almost unmentioned resignation of its scion C.E.O., and all we got was 25 minutes with no slides and no open Q&A,” he wrote. Yes, Peter, that was very weird.
Honestly, after what Brian
went through to get NBCU in the first place, I was pretty shocked that he’d made the decision to part with it. But things have changed since he bought NBCU, and I’m sure he enjoys watching and helping his chosen executives succeed. At one point during my call with the Comcast executives, the names of fellow media titans John Malone and Barry Diller came up. It seemed like a telling and perhaps fateful reference. Malone, who is 85, seems to be winding down his
ambitions. Diller, who is 84, remains tireless. He wants to get his hands on CNN, if somehow the Ellisons are forced to sell it. Will Brian take after Malone? Or Diller? Wall Street is still waiting on, and guessing at, his answer. My bet is that Brian—still two decades younger than either man—has a few more acts left before retirement beckons.
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On World Cup blues: “I am in Italy this week and was not able to watch the Bosnia game—for
less than, like, $100. DAZN has full rights in Italy?! Except a handful of games from the group stage. V.P.N.s don’t work anymore—especially to try to access something like Peacock or Fox. DAZN doesn’t offer any trials. And only the highest tier gets access to the World Cup—one month at, like, €75 or something. Then when I go to a different European country, nothing transfers, forcing me to find a different way to watch. But that seems like unnecessary headaches and friction.” —A
Varsity subscriber
On Comcast’s R.S.N.s: “With Comcast planning to spin off NBCUniversal within the next year, does this potentially accelerate MLB and the NBA’s R.S.N.-replacement products by accelerating the voluntary exit of NBC Sports Bay Area, NBC Sports Boston, NBC Sports California, and NBC Sports Philadelphia? As separate entities, it would seem that these R.S.N.s wouldn’t get the same carriage advantages with Comcast that they currently enjoy within the same
corporate structure.” —A media executive
On ESPN’s Wimbledon coverage: “ESPN doubled down on Unlimited for tennis. I honestly thought the near-universal blowback they received during the Australian Open would prompt a course correction. Instead, for Wimbledon, they’ve moved all streaming matches off of ESPN+ and onto Unlimited.” —A journalist
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Have a great Fourth. See you all next week.
John
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Ace media reporter Dylan Byers brings readers into the C-suite as he chronicles the biggest stories in the industry:
the future of cable news in the streaming era, the transformation of legacy publishers, the tech giants remaking the market, and all the egos involved. Also featuring a weekly dispatch from Puck’s crack streaming/media analyst, Julia Alexander.
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Puck fashion correspondent Lauren Sherman and a rotating cast of industry insiders take you deep behind the scenes of
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