Apr 24, 2025

Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, home in L.A. and not headed to Washington for the W.H.C.A. dinner nonsense. I’ve tried—many times—to enjoy that weekend, but D.C. people pretending to be Hollywood people is embarrassing for both. 💫💫 Anyway, a few invites went out this week for Puck’s Stories of the Season TV event, which is May 20 in L.A. We’ve got a great lineup of talent, including Parker Posey doing a sit-down with our Lauren Sherman about the fashion of The White Lotus. And I’m recording a live episode of The Town with the equally stylish John Mulaney. If you’re a member of the TV Academy, industry labor guild, or another awards body, just email Fritz@puck.news for an invite. Tonight, some, uh, surprising new data on the movie stars that matter, plus the latest Gen Z rankings, and a new No. 1 most important actor. (And, sadly, who has fallen out of favor with moviegoers.) Still not a Puck member? Just click here. Got a news tip or an idea for me? Just reply to this email or message me on Signal at 310-804-3198. Let’s begin…

Thursday Thoughts…

Paramount-Trump mediation watch: David Ellison is likely breathing sighs of relief now that Brendan Carr and the F.C.C. are at least talking with Paramount about conditions for approval of the sale to Skydance. The F.C.C. pretty clearly wants to create the impression that an agency green light and the Trump–CBS News litigation are separate. But to me, the most powerful figure here besides the president is still Daniel Weinstein at JAMS, the mediator in the Trump case against 60 Minutes, which is set to begin mediation next week. If Weinstein can get Trump to a number that won’t chase away Shari Redstone, and doesn’t require her to issue a B.S. apology that would implode CBS News, the Trump case settles and Carr, like a lapdog, will approve the deal. If Trump does require an apology, Shari will then need to decide whether her $8 billion deal is more important than a massive journalism scandal and a tarnished legacy. I think we know the answer to that question.

Zaslav finally admits Max isn’t Netflix: Richard Plepler, Chris Albrecht, and anyone who worked at HBO before AT&T, and then Discovery, took over its parent company would be forgiven for their massive spit takes yesterday. “We’re not fighting for the more-is-better game,” JB Perrette, streaming chief for Warner Bros. Discovery, hilariously told the Journal. “We’ll let others deal with the volume.” Really? “More is better” was kinda the exact thesis behind AT&T’s doomed foray into Hollywood. And it was pretty much all Warner Discovery C.E.O. David Zaslav would talk about when he smooshed HBO, Warner Bros., and Discovery content together to form Max. It’s also the exact strategy that the old HBO leadership advised AT&T’s brain trust not to pursue after they paid $85 billion to turn HBO into Netflix. (Plepler literally repeated, ad nauseam, “More is not better; only better is better.”) At least they tried, I guess. It didn’t work, but given that AT&T pushed eject on WarnerMedia when it realized how expensive it would be to compete with Netflix and Amazon, Zaslav probably should have realized earlier that the type of people who watch cheapo lean-back shows on HGTV and Food Network wouldn’t make the same choices in an on-demand environment, especially on a subscale service marketed primarily to fans of The White Lotus. How long until Max becomes HBO Max again?
Lourd’s curious lunch date: Yes, that was Bryan Lourd lunching with Ivanka Trump today at the Polo Lounge for all of Hollywood to see. Which is funny because a) the CAA leader was instrumental in the agency recently signing Kamala Harris, who is friendly with Lourd and has attended parties at his house; and b) Lourd loves to rip the “self-centered” tactics of longtime rival Ari Emanuel, a veteran Democratic donor who has cozied up to Trumpworld via TKO’s ownership of Dana White’s UFC. What sparked the sit-down? CAA declined to comment beyond saying Ivanka is not a client.
Box office over/under: No disrespect to Ben Affleck, but Amazon/MGM’s The Accountant 2 will likely be muted by the second weekend of Sinners, so I’ll take the under on the $23 million domestic tracking average.

Now for some new data on movie star value…

Ranking the Movie Stars Who Actually Matter

National Research Group’s latest study on the actors who put butts into theater seats reveals a number of unsurprising truths: ’90s stars still reign, women are underrepresented (except Zendaya and Margot), and a dozen or so younger stars are building real staying power.

Matthew Belloni

Remember two years ago, when I revealed a fascinating study that was making the rounds in Hollywood executive suites about which actors were considered most theatrical? If you don’t recall, National Research Group, a leading entertainment data firm, had surveyed 3,000 Americans age 12-74 from census-balanced backgrounds, and posed perhaps the most crucial query for the future of both the talent and movie theater businesses: Please list up to five actors or actresses that would make you most interested in seeing a new movie in a theater in the future. Not Who do you like?, or even Whose movies do you want to see? It was specifically tailored to gauge which stars mattered in theaters—who puts U.S.A. butts in U.S.A. seats—which, of course, is a much different query. When Netflix pairs Millie Bobby Brown with Chris Pratt in The Electric State, Brown—the star of several top streaming films and Stranger Things—is almost certainly the bigger draw for the small-screen audience. But if Electric State were a Universal movie released in theaters, as it almost was before talks broke down over the budget, the value of Pratt (No. 35 on the NRG list) to a theatrical title is likely far higher than Brown, who didn’t even make the top 100.

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After that February 2023 study first included the theatricality question, NRG started asking it every six months as part of its “Future of Film” report, which is now generating a more meaningful portrait of lasting stardom. I recently got my hands on the latest round of research, and it did not disappoint. (NRG declined to comment for this column.) The big-picture takeaway won’t be shocking to studio executives or first-year business school students: Brands still matter most when people are deciding whether to invest in going to a movie theater. The brand—whether it’s known movie I.P., like a toy, a video game, or, in select circumstances, a specific actor—sets expectations and gives the moviegoer a shorthand for determining whether the film is worth their time and money. For certain actors, their brand connotes a theatrical experience. And it’s not always who you might expect. So, which actors have successfully built a theatrical brand? Drumroll… here are your top 25 movie movie stars, according to the latest NRG survey, and their change in rank from the company’s August 2024 study…

Yes, Tom Cruise, who was No. 1 in that first February 2023 survey, has been dethroned by 70-year-old Denzel Washington, who was likely helped by his appearance in Gladiator II in late 2024. (Denzel was No. 5 in that first report and No. 2 last August.) Ryan Reynolds dropped from No. 1 in August, shortly after Deadpool & Wolverine hit theaters, to No. 5 in the current report. Julia Roberts, who was No. 6 in that first report, has now dropped down to No. 21. Yes, there’s always some recency bias in these things: Actors with projects generating attention around the time of the survey will necessarily benefit. But that’s why the takeaways from the two years of research are the most interesting. Here are my top five observations…

1. Stars of the ’90s Are Forever

Only 14 actors ranked in the top 25 in all five surveys, maintaining their popular appeal even if they hadn’t appeared in a then-current project—reinforcing the strength of their brands. I threw in the ages of the Elite 14 here because it’s notable that the average age is 57.8, and nobody is under 45. Fully half are 60 or older... Tom Cruise, 62 Johnny Depp, 61 Leonardo DiCaprio, 50 Robert Downey Jr., 60 Tom Hanks, 68 Kevin Hart, 45 Dwayne Johnson, 52 Angelina Jolie, 49 Brad Pitt, 61 Keanu Reeves, 60 Julia Roberts, 57 Adam Sandler, 58 Will Smith, 56 Denzel Washington, 70

2. But Younger Stars Aren’t Totally Absent

There were only 15 stars under 40 in the top 100, just four of whom were men. Still, while a study like this is necessarily influenced by what’s currently being promoted, a few younger stars have demonstrated signs of staying power—meaning they are effectively building their theatrical brand. First, the actors under 40 in the top 100 (and their movement from August 2024): Zendaya, No. 17 (+8) Margot Robbie, No. 25 (-2) Jennifer Lawrence, No. 33 (even) Tom Holland, No. 34 (-3) Timothée Chalamet, No. 36 (+25) Emma Stone, No. 44 (-4) Ariana Grande, No. 47 (+86) Jenna Ortega, No. 56 (-7) Michael B. Jordan, No. 57 (+34) Florence Pugh, No. 66 (+60) Lady Gaga, No. 77 (+32) Robert Pattinson, No. 82 (+282!) Anya Taylor-Joy, No. 93 (+10) Gal Gadot, No. 97 (-11) Keke Palmer, No. 98 (+198) To me, the biggest surprise is that Holland, who hasn’t starred in a theatrical movie since Uncharted in 2022, is considered more of a theatrical draw than Timmy C., who fronted the Wonka and Dune franchises and then grossed $140 million worldwide, was nominated for best actor, and staged one of the all-time great press tours for A Complete Unknown. I guess the power of the Spider-Man suit—and a years-long romance with Zendaya— trumps all that. Stone and Jordan both seem low to me, given their track records, though I imagine M.B.J. will get a big boost in the next survey from the Sinners grosses in the U.S.

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Digging deeper, a few of these young stars are showing impressive endurance:

Zendaya, just 28, ranked No. 47 in August 2023, then rose to No. 23 in February 2024 (Dune: Part Two and Challengers probably helped), and is now up to No. 17, despite not releasing a film in 2025.
Robbie, 34, was No. 67 in February 2023, then popped into the top 25 after Barbie, and has stayed there in all surveys since.
Chalamet, 29, was at No. 94 two years ago. He jumped to No. 54 a year later, post-Wonka. Now, boosted by Complete Unknown and Dune: Part Two, he’s at No. 36.

3. Gen Z’s Top Stars Are Only Slightly Different

Check out the same top 25 chart that only includes responses from Americans aged 12-27. It’s a lot of the same actors, and only seven of these stars are under 40 (ScarJo just turned 40).

I’ve speculated as to why even young people favor older movie stars. To Gen Z, even if they like going to a theater for reasons other than throwing popcorn or live chickens, it’s inherently something old people do, and the stars of past decades are still the stars they associate with moviegoing. At least that’s my theory. That said, certain stars (especially the under-30 set) do over-index with Gen Z, according to the survey: Zendaya, No. 7 vs. No. 17 overall Tom Holland, No. 13 vs. No. 34 overall Timothée Chalamet, No. 16 vs. No. 36 overall Ariana Grande, No. 19 vs. No. 47 overall Jenna Ortega, No. 20 vs. No. 56 overall Florence Pugh, No. 25 vs. No. 66 overall Chris Evans, No. 27 vs. No. 40 overall Jack Black, No. 28 vs. No. 62 overall The takeaway from this entire study might be that whatever Zendaya is doing, everyone should do that. Also, I suppose it’s fitting that the top female star and top male star under 40, for both Gen Z and the general population, are engaged to each other. Hopefully, they will produce a superbaby that will eventually top this chart in the mid-2030s, if theaters still exist then.

4. One Big Movie Doesn’t Make a Star

As I mentioned, recency bias can lead to a temporary spike for an actor. (See Ariana Grande, who jumped to No. 47 thanks to Wicked… though curiously, co-star Cynthia Erivo is still not in the top 100.) But having a hit in theaters doesn’t necessarily mean that a star’s brand will endure with moviegoers. Two examples:

Blake Lively, 37, surged into the top 25 in August 2024, around the release of It Ends With Us, which grossed more than $300 million worldwide and generated, uh, some media attention. In the current survey, she’s down to No. 101, and the Justin Baldoni litigation probably didn’t help.
Glen Powell, 36, shot to No. 65 in August 2024, on the heels of Twisters and Hit Man, but fell back to No. 178 this round. So he’s not in the enduring movie star category yet. Both Powell and Paramount definitely hope that this fall’s The Running Man can bring him back.

5. Women Are Still Underrepresented

For whatever reason—likely because the more male-dominated action and superhero genre films dominate the box office—we continue to see few women in the top 25, and none in the top 10. In this most recent round, the highest ranked are Scarlett Johansson, Sandra Bullock, Angelina Jolie, Zendaya, Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, and Margot Robbie. So seven of the top 25, or 28 percent. Expanding to the top 100, the numbers improve only slightly: 35 percent.

Postscript: Chris Nolan Is No Dummy

While Nolan’s personal brand is probably the biggest attraction for next summer’s The Odyssey, the filmmaker’s cast includes a remarkable six actors in the top 100, reinforcing how much of an event that movie will be for Universal: Zendaya (No. 17), Matt Damon (No. 30), Tom Holland (No. 34), Anne Hathaway (No. 39), Robert Pattinson (No. 82), and Charlize Theron (No. 83). Overall, this whole thing is further evidence of Hollywood’s struggle to create a new generation of meaningful movie stars. Whereas the previous crop mostly got famous in movies that packaged and branded their individual star power, thus creating lasting personal brands, the new stars are, for the most part, building their brands on the back of the I.P.-driven blockbusters that Hollywood has plugged them into. Which, in some ways, makes it easier to be a star these days, but harder to be a star who actually matters to moviegoers.

See you Monday, Matt Clarification: You’re not going to believe this, but I undercounted the number of Katy Perry publicists on Monday. Perry recently hired Christy Welder, who also happens to rep fellow “girl power” space tourist Lauren Sánchez. Got a question, comment, complaint, or your own undercounted publicists? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.

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