After a long, fallow period, the I.P.O. market appears to be demonstrating some of its own rites of spring: SeatGeek, the event ticket marketplace, quietly filed to go public, following Chia Network, a crypto firm. I’ve been wondering whether this is a new pattern, post-SPAC denouement, or merely an aberration. And, alas, I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s a false bloom, a moment between a post-correction mini-rally and a looming recession that most analysts predict is more likely than not. Capital and credit markets are still tight amid rising interest rates that have cooled the I.P.O. pipeline and pushed many investors into cash or the bond market (it’s been a long time since I could write that).

Sure, there is always a new generation of companies seeking to go public through the mechanism of the traditional I.P.O. That’s one of the things that makes American capitalism great—the ability of an entrepreneur to take his or her idea, turn it into a successful company, and then go to the public equity markets to find new investors and experience the rarified highs of a bigtime liquidity event.