Cognizant of the charged politics around abortion, and concerned about the liberal backlash to the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, Donald Trump has spent the past several months stress-testing his policy stance on “the a-word,” as he calls it, with his preferred focus group: Mar-a-Lago patrons. In particular, Trump has been polling club members to determine whether any of the vice presidential candidates on his shortlist are considered too extreme on abortion.
Of course, this week’s ruling by the Arizona Supreme Court—dusting off the state’s Civil War-era abortion ban, which arrived like a neatly wrapped, political gift to the Biden campaign—has only made Trump’s veep decision thornier. Hours before the ruling, Trump announced that abortion rights should be left to the states, infuriating some of his supporters. But Trump appears adamant that the Arizona court went too far. Indeed, a source close to Trump told me that since landing on the states rights position, he has explicitly changed his V.P. calculus, removing from his shortlist governors from states without exceptions for abortion in cases of rape or incest, or any state with a so-called “heartbeat bill” before 10 weeks.
That eliminates South Dakota governor and “best teeth” award winner Kristi Noem. “She has the most extreme positions, which is why some have never taken her seriously,” said a source familiar with the former president’s list. It’s also curtains for Noem’s neighbor, affable billionaire North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, as well as for Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the popular governor of Arkansas. “It’s a hard pitch,” a Trump advisor told me, explaining why governors are dropping from V.P. consideration as Trump embraces a states rights position. “If you’re his V.P., you cannot be a distraction.”
The “a-word” issue isn’t great news for Tim Scott, either. Many in Trump’s inner circle have been arguing that enlisting the party’s only Black senator would neutralize concerns among suburban, swing-state white women that Trump is racist. And on paper, Scott isn’t all that different from every other Senate Republican who supports Lindsey Graham’s proposed 15-week national abortion ban. But it’s the way Scott came out of the gate during his failed presidential campaign—leaning hard into a draconian pro-life stance, and calling a federal abortion ban a “moral obligation”—that has alarmed some Trump allies. “When Tim announced for president, they kept asking him about abortion and he gave a lot of shitty answers,” said a source with knowledge of Trump’s deliberations. (Veep hopeful Ben Carson, who was described to me as “pretty motherfucking pro-life,” doesn’t fare any better in this calculus.)
Of course, Trump’s latest positioning and general information-collection apparatus suggests that he simply wants to minimize the issue. “Trump is trying to take this off the table, and he’s looking to the V.P. to be able to do that,” said a source who is advising him on the issue. “The type of people who can take on the issue and articulate it, that’s what he needs.”
Vance & Rubio Rising
The new focus on abortion marks an evolution of Trump’s political priorities, such as they are. Last month, I reported on the emerging consensus among campaign insiders that his eventual V.P. choice might come down to the candidate who could perform best and bring in wealthy donors—at the time his greatest vulnerability. As my colleague Teddy Schleifer reported, Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison was toying with Trump’s money worries by pushing him to choose Scott as his running mate. But the billionaires have come flocking back. Last week, Trump raised $50.5 million at a record-breaking fundraiser hosted by hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, who’s made no secret of his desire to be Treasury secretary.
But the truth is that no Republican can truly take the abortion issue off the table for Trump, who hand-picked the conservative justices that went on to nuke Roe and set the stage for Arizona’s antebellum court ruling. If that state was in play before—Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 11,000 votes—it’s even more up for grabs now that Arizona residents will have an abortion measure on the November ballot. “It’s fucking bad, this is what everyone’s nightmare scenario has been since Dobbs” said the source with knowledge. “That a functional total ban would hit a swing state.”
Nevertheless, the Mar-a-Lago brain trust has identified some candidates who might ameliorate the challenge. Among them is Rustbelt senator J.D. Vance, a pet of Donald Trump Jr. (and favorite of Peter Thiel) whose flexible approach to ideology is a close match for Trump’s own. Even though Vance supported Texas’s six-week abortion ban, and campaigned in November against Ohio’s winning measure to protect abortion rights, he has also tweeted that the G.O.P. needs a more realpolitik approach.
Consequently, Vance’s stock is rising among many close Trump allies. “He’s intelligent, and he won’t outshine Trump because he’s just another white guy,” said a source with knowledge of the situation. “I’d take J.D. seriously. Especially since Don Jr. and Steve Bannon and that whole ilk are really pushing J.D.” Added another advisor: “Trump likes him, and Trump thinks he made him.”
As the list gets smaller and Trump grows tired of the unctuous Scott, Marco Rubio’s stock has been rising, too. It helps that he’s close with Susie Wiles and Kellyanne Conway, who have been pushing for a Trump-Rubio ticket. Sure, Rubio would have to leave Florida, given the constitutional penalty imposed on two candidates from the same state on a presidential ticket. But Rubio has privately made it clear he’s tired of the Senate. Maybe relocating wouldn’t be so far-fetched. But with the whims of Trump, it’s far too early to put up the for sale sign.
