If there’s any path for Republicans to derail Donald Trump during the primaries, outside a fantasy Supreme Court intervention on constitutional grounds (suddenly, everyone’s an expert on the 14th Amendment…), it may all come down to a bank shot in New Hampshire. Sure, Iowa may look like a layup for Trump these days, but the Granite State is swooning for Nikki Haley, who has seen double-digit polling gains since she was endorsed by Governor Chris Sununu. The latest St. Anselm survey—which was conducted before Tuesday’s Colorado Supreme Court ruling disqualifying Trump from the state’s primary election—had Trump at 44 percent and Haley at 30 percent. Chris Christie came in at 12, DeSantis at 6, and Vivek at 5 percent. 

Naturally, this has sparked feverish conversation in Republican circles: What if Christie, who is getting walloped in Iowa, were to drop out before New Hampshire? Would his supporters flock to Haley, making her the first Republican to truly compete with Trump in a primary since 2016?