Peter Hamby: You and I have been talking for months about the remarkable lack of clarity surrounding whether Joe Biden will run for re-election in 2024. On some level, that’s entirely predictable, given that Biden is turning 80 years old and has a history of electoral indecision, himself. But I imagine it also speaks to a deeper ambivalence inside the Democratic Party: How can you possibly telegraph the evolving probability that the incumbent president steps down without extinguishing his political capital or losing control of the succession planning? Are we headed for an open primary?

Tara Palmeri: The party really is in wait-and-see mode with the midterm elections. The calculation will hinge on the major factors: What are the losses like for Democrats? Is it a brutal wipeout with calls for a new leadership? We’re not expecting it to be that strong of a wave, but still these factors need to be considered, especially if Republicans take back the Senate and win more House seats than expected. I do think it’s shocking how many members of the Democratic party, even those who are not up for re-election or are in safe seats, won’t say definitively that Biden should run again. Many of these candidates are polling higher than Biden, and despite Republican efforts to make the midterms a referendum on Biden, that narrative has run away from them. The Dobbs decision, and a few legislative wins, handed them that lifeline.