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Jasmine Crockett Counter Theories

For a moment, the Texas Senate primary seemed straightforward for Democrats. But while James Talarico has capitalized on his Colbert media moment and a commanding financial lead, Crockett’s strong polling and social media recognition will keep the party guessing until the end.

James Talarico, Jasmine Crockett
Talarico’s headline advantages notwithstanding, there’s enough credible private and public polling to suggest that Crockett could overcome them and win the primary on March 3. Photo: Bob Daemmrich/The Texas Tribune/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Abby Livingston
February 19, 2026

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By every conventional standard, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is running an underwhelming Senate primary campaign. Her Democratic rival, State Rep. James Talarico, has outraised her by a two-to-one margin; she’s getting swamped on television by Talarico ads; and she reportedly did not have a formal campaign manager as late as this month. And that was before Stephen Colbert publicly accused his CBS bosses of yanking his interview with Talarico, creating a Streisand effect that funneled national attention and another $2.5 million to his campaign. (The interview currently has more than 7 million views on YouTube.) In the aftermath, the pro-Talarico social media contingent was all but ready to stick a fork in Crockett’s Senate ambitions.