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Johnson’s Margin Call

As the House Republican majority continues to dwindle, Hill insiders are contemplating something unprecedented: Could Democrats gain control of Congress before the midterms?

Mike Johnson
You might assume Democrats are rooting for this outcome—they’d finally have the power to counter Trump with committee gavels and subpoenas, months earlier than expected. Not exactly. For one thing, they’d inherit the same razor-thin margin and governing headaches that are currently Speaker Mike Johnson’s to deal with. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images
Abby Livingston
April 29, 2026

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Washington has largely accepted the conventional wisdom that Democrats will flip the House in November—the main debate among increasingly giddy Dem operatives is how big the wave will be, and whether they might have a shot at the Senate, too. But lately, the conversation on Capitol Hill has coalesced around another question: Could the House actually flip before November?