Happy Monday, and welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Peter Hamby, watching the Bengals-Commanders game with tortured familial loyalties (and Cincinnati chili) giving me some real heartburn. Tonight, with all the attention on Gen Z this election cycle, I take a look at some fascinating shifts happening among older voters—trends that could help Kamala Harris keep Donald Trump at bay in the battleground states.

But first, Abby Livingston weighs in with the latest intel from the Hill…

A few more reflections on the events and dynamics that will likely compete against another spending bill for members’ attention during that time frame…

• Leadership race antics: Hakeem Jeffries is expected to be the Democratic leader, no matter how the House races shake out. On the Republican side, things are murkier. Many members have come around on Speaker Mike Johnson and his imperfect but comparatively civil 11-month tenure, at least compared to the chaos that preceded him. Others, however, are merely biding their time until after the election, hoping to back a challenger. With significant committee leadership openings this year at Financial Services and Energy & Commerce, whoever holds the gavel will have extraordinary influence over the direction of their conference.

  On the Senate side, the race for Republican leadership between John Thune and John Cornyn is the hottest battle in ages and yet remains an insular affair. By all appearances, it is a dignified bout in which Thune has the upper hand. One has to wonder, as the whipping proceeds post-election on both sides of the Capitol, what kind of promises will be made to the conferences’ right wings to appease and cajole conservatives—all amid the mounting pressure of likely election litigation and a looming shutdown.

• Shilling committee slots: And then there are committee assignments, which rank-and-filers will be maneuvering to secure, especially after a rash of senior Republican retirements freed up plum slots. This is when the bills come due from member contributions to the campaign committees. Members didn’t pony up those six-figure altar call donations out of altruism, and there will be expectations for choice committee assignments. Kevin McCarthy deployed committee assignments to secure (briefly) his gavel. How will whoever leads these caucuses use these chits to secure the votes needed, particularly on the winning side? Will Republicans continue to appoint Freedom Caucus members to pivotal committees like Appropriations and Rules? Will A.O.C. finally land a slot on E&C? Will Republican crackpots make it to Intel? Expect the usual intraparty tensions to be exacerbated, however these seats are doled out.
• A silver lining?: A Republican Hill operative sees an upside to the potential post-election overlap of electoral tumult and long-term spending negotiations: “It’s actually a dream come true for a good bill author—it’s kind of like being the youngest kid of a dozen. They can skate by with no notice if they just keep their head down.”

It was a flip observation, but Maher wasn’t off base. Yes, youth interest in politics has surged in the Trump era. Their earnestness and passion has driven so many news cycles in recent years, from the Parkland gun control crusade to the Gaza solidarity movement on campuses. But young people are indeed the reigning champs of not showing up to vote. You could even call it a dynasty, at this point.

Yes, the 2020 election saw historic turnout among young voters—about 50 percent of eligible voters under 30 cast ballots, according to CIRCLE. Good news for civic engagement. But voters under 30 still only made up about 16 percent of the electorate in 2020. I don’t see it being much higher this year. I literally laughed out loud at a recent poll from NBC News and SurveyMonkey that showed 88 percent of young voters promising to cast ballots in November. That level of youth turnout has never happened, ever, in any election, and it won’t happen this year, either. Take it to the bank. No amount of cheeky pro-Kamala TikToks or Trump interviews with Kick streamers will change that.

Meanwhile, for all the focus on America’s fickle youth this year, I’ve been surprised how little focus there’s been on the generation that does show up to vote: the olds. According to Pew’s validated voter survey, 55 percent of the electorate in 2020 was over the age of 49, and Gen Xers, Baby Boomers, and members of the Silent Generation comprised a full 69 percent. Younger voters might be louder, but older generations are much more likely to be registered to vote—and, even more importantly, to actually show up.

In past elections—national, state, local—the rule has always been that an older electorate favors Republicans. Democrats pin their hopes on young voters turning out to blunt big G.O.P. advantages among older voters. But something different is happening this election cycle. Just as certain young men are moving toward Trump, older voters, especially women, have started to trend more Democratic. To wit: In 2016, when Trump was running against Hillary Clinton, he won voters over the age of 65 by eight points. In 2020, Trump won them by four points over Joe Biden. Today? According to polls, including a survey from NBC News over the weekend, Harris is running about even with Trump among seniors, tied at 47 percent. It’s given her a surprising edge with just weeks until the election, especially in the battlegrounds of the upper Midwest.

“That’s really big movement,” said Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward, which conducted the bipartisan AARP survey along with Impact Research. “Harris actually improved herself by five points among older voters relative to Biden. And it’s important to point out that 58 percent of the electorate in Wisconsin is over the age of 50. That’s huge.” Ward told me that since Biden left the race, Harris has gained in the polls thanks to growing support from younger voters, and also the demise of the so-called “double-haters” who had been sitting on the sidelines. But, he said, “Harris has not only fixed that problem, she has really raised her relative strength from Biden among older voters. It’s a completely different race now.”

He also said the gender gap that’s come to define the race is smaller among older voters, at least in Wisconsin. “Relative to where Biden was, Harris improved herself among older men more so than she did among older women,” Ward told me. “She is up among both, but it makes it a much more competitive race there among older voters. The gender gap in Wisconsin is only, like, 11 points. Harris is winning older women by three points, and Trump’s winning older men by eight points. That’s among the most narrow gender gaps we’ve seen among older voters across the battleground states. She has really switched things up.”

Ward walked me through another age dynamic that, at first, confused me. In pretty much every battleground state, Trump is doing better in polls among voters age 50-64. Harris, though, is doing better among the even older crowd, voters age 65 and up. The split seemed counterintuitive, given the age differences between the two candidates, but Ward offered a pretty simple explanation: Generations change from election to election, and so do their habits, histories, and political preferences. “We don’t want to compare seniors to what they did in 2020, or how they voted in 2016, because they aren’t the same seniors,” he explained. “In each age bracket, we lose voters every few years, and we also gain voters every few years.”

Most of the voters in the 65+ bracket are Baby Boomers. “So you think about when these people became politically aware, it was during Vietnam, it was during civil rights, it was during women’s rights, Watergate,” Ward said. “Those were the politically formative moments. And so this group, as they have aged as a group—and I’m generalizing—have been a little bit more left of center.” As for the 50- to 64-year olds expressing support for Trump? “That’s the last five years of the baby boom and then into Gen X,” Ward said. “These folks were all becoming politically aware under Ronald Reagan and at the end of the Cold War. It was a different time, politically. And as a group, they tend to be a little bit right of center and have been throughout their lifetimes.”

Put another way: Alex P. Keaton might not fit into his suspenders anymore, but he still likes the G.O.P. And the Woodstock generation is getting even older, but for the most part, they remain more progressive than their parents were.

According to LeaMond, older women cast 33 percent of the ballots in the 2022 midterms, even though they accounted for a little more than 25 percent of the voting-age population. “They’re punching above their weight, and they’re also more likely to still be deciding what they’re going to do,” she said. “Back in 2022, we saw a big shift in the congressional battleground states between August and Election Day. So our view is that people running for office ignore this constituency to their peril. They are going to vote.”

But vote on what? Trump wants to talk about border security, public safety, and the scourge of high prices, but, predictably, he can’t seem to stick to a message, distracted by sagging poll numbers and fake news about pet-eating immigrants. Harris is showing far more discipline on the campaign trail, but polls continue to show that voters aren’t sure what she stands for. Her primary message is fighting for abortion rights, which is certainly driving historic levels of support among young women. But LeaMond said abortion is less of a priority for older women, who care first and foremost about the economy. But according to Nancy, older women harbor a somewhat different set of financial concerns than other demographics. “Make no mistake: [They are] are concerned about food prices, gas prices, etcetera,” she said. “But what also struck us was the concern about their overall financial stability down the line.” The numbers: 63 percent of women over 50 feel less financially secure than they expected to be, 41 percent don’t have enough savings to cover an emergency expense, and 44 percent don’t have a retirement savings account or a pension. “For us, this was a real shock, to have the future financial security concerns be essentially even with the day-to-day ones.”

LeaMond said that while Harris and Trump are both talking about evergreen economic security for seniors, protecting Social Security and Medicare, there’s an opportunity to weave the topics into speeches and paid media even more. Harris has lately made a specific push aimed at seniors, boasting about the Biden administration’s successful negotiations with insurance companies to lower the cost of Medicare’s 10 most expensive drugs. But, LeaMond said, both nominees are leaving an important issue on the table that continues to surface in AARP polls and focus groups: the growing stress of family caregiving for aging parents, spouses, siblings, and, eventually, themselves.

There are currently 48 million family caregivers, and 55 million Americans over the age of 65. By 2040, that number will grow to 80 million. The two candidates are barely talking about the kind of pressure, financial and emotional, that aging family members put on their loved ones. But for millions of Americans, caring for loved ones is a full-time job—and one without pay. “People of that age are going to be living with chronic conditions that require care,” LeaMond said. “This is top of mind for so many families. Family caregivers not only are investing on average 25 or 30 hours a week of care, they’re also spending around $7,000 out of pocket every year. And so, what family caregivers say to us, is they need help saving time, saving money, and getting the kind of resources they need to know how to care for their loved ones. It’s an issue that we see coming up a lot in this campaign, and something we talk about with campaigns. And it’s only going to grow over time.”