A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Millions of Americans rely on the health care tax credit to afford their coverage, but it’s set to expire this year. Without action from Congress, families across the country could see their health care costs skyrocket.

Congress: Extend the health care tax credit or families will lose coverage.

Understand the impact if it expires. 

But first, here’s Abby…

Now on to the main event…

Lawmakers have returned from August recess to a Washington littered with crises, controversies, and what can only be described as audacious administrative theater. Last Wednesday, on the steps of the U.S. Capitol, seven survivors of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell’s abuse network made a rare and powerful public appearance, serving as a reminder that trauma and accountability have a long half-life in American politics. Indeed, the Epstein story is one of the few scandals that has refused to fade for Donald Trump and his allies, even as the MAGA base pipes down and the administration tries, albeit unsuccessfully, to dismiss it all as fake news.

Meanwhile, over in the Senate Finance Committee, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faced pointed questioning last week from Democratic and even some Republican senators, who forced him to navigate the contradictions of his anti-vaccine and public health positions on behalf of an administration that doesn’t seem too interested in the operational details of H.H.S. Add to this the administration’s recent $5 billion pocket rescission, and lest we forget, the looming government shutdown and a caucus of Democrats angrier than ever at both Trump and their own colleagues’ past compromises.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Millions of Americans rely on the health care tax credit to afford their coverage, but it’s set to expire this year. Without action from Congress, families across the country could see their health care costs skyrocket.

Congress: Extend the health care tax credit or families will lose coverage.

Understand the impact if it expires. 

To help cut through the chaos, my partner Leigh Ann Caldwell recently joined me on an episode of Impolitic to offer a sober assessment of the current state of affairs on the Hill, and where Congress is likely headed from here. As always, this excerpt has been edited for clarity and brevity. Or you can listen to the whole megillah here.

John Heilemann: I found the testimony of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell’s victims utterly compelling, and also politically potent. What was your reaction to what we saw Wednesday on the Capitol steps?

Leigh Ann Caldwell: It was extremely powerful. These women have to relive their trauma every time Jeffrey Epstein is back in the news. But what seems to be different this time is that they came together en masse. I kept thinking to myself, How did so many of these women want to do this? You typically have one or two who will come forward, but the fact that there were so many is a really telling indictment of what’s happening with this. And each story was similar, but harrowing in its own unique way.

There was a hope on the part of the White House, and certainly Speaker Johnson, that sending Congress home early to avoid a vote on the Epstein files would make this go away. Is this still a problem for Trump and Republicans?

I have two answers to that question. The first is, yes, it continues to be a headache for the administration. Before recess, I thought this was going to have some real staying power, and this press conference was incredibly powerful, and it got picked up by every single major news outlet. I think that’s different, and that’s important.

But we’re not seeing the online MAGA right responding to this as much as we did before they went on recess. The anger and chatter online seems to have died down from the Trump base. You’re even seeing a shift in Republican members of Congress who, before recess, were clamoring that more needs to be released—and now you have far fewer who are voicing such outrage. What’s changed is that Donald Trump and his team have gotten to a lot of people and tried to tamp down on this. There have also been subpoenas from the House Oversight Committee to release information. There’s going to be a continued effort to try and satisfy the demands of the people who are calling for more. So far the response is not really transparent. But can they make it look transparent enough to quell the outrage?

On Thursday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got quite a grilling from Democratic Senator Mark Warner at the Senate Finance Committee hearing. What struck you about the hearing, and what were your main takeaways from it?

That Mark Warner exchange was one of the best. It’s really interesting listening to Kennedy talk, because the way he frames things, he sounds like he’s actually operating from a place of science. But then you have these senators who are digging in, asking very specific questions about scientific findings, and that’s where he operates in a reality of his own, rather than based on what evidence is presented to him. The exchange with Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy was also super fascinating. Cassidy is the reason R.F.K. Jr. is sitting in that position right now. Cassidy, a doctor, didn’t want to confirm him, but Kennedy gave Cassidy guarantees that he would operate from a place of science. So Cassidy was pissed during that hearing and could not believe the contradictions that Kennedy was spewing about vaccines and Operation Warp Speed.

As a functional matter, is there anything that the Senate Finance Committee can do to stop R.F.K. Jr. from doing what he wants to do?

I don’t think they can do very much. Congress can direct and control funding very specifically toward C.D.C. and N.I.H. and Health and Human Services, but that’s also at risk based on how the administration thinks about congressionally appropriated funds. The role of the administrative state has greatly expanded under the president, and he has given Kennedy a lot of power and a lot of leeway to do whatever he wants within Health and Human Services. And it doesn’t seem like Congress can do much to stop it. Congress is also having a lot of problems getting information from not just Kennedy, but other agencies too. When they ask questions about what exactly is going on in these agencies, the agencies are not responding.

Through your reporting and people you talk to, do you understand why Donald Trump continues to give Robert Kennedy Jr. so much leeway in effectively undoing Operation Warp Speed, which accelerated the development of the mRNA Covid vaccine and is arguably Trump’s greatest first-term accomplishment?

Health and Human Services and the C.D.C.—these aren’t things that Donald Trump necessarily cares about, understands, or wants to know about. And of course, there’s the political transaction Trump made with R.F.K. Jr. during the campaign, which helped Trump win the presidency. Another thing I’ve been thinking about a lot is how minuscule of a mandate R.F.K. Jr. has actually been given. He’s focused on food dyes, fluoride, water, and his anti-vax component. Meanwhile, during the campaign, Trump also said, R.F.K., you can do whatever the hell you want, just don’t touch the oil. Meanwhile you have the E.P.A. rolling back every clean air and clean water regulation possible, but R.F.K. and MAHA don’t care about air quality and water quality and soil quality. It’s such a contradiction, and I think that this is like a toy that Donald Trump doesn’t care about, and he’s letting R.F.K. have at it.

The pocket rescissions have pissed off a lot of Democrats, and made both sides more agitated. For people who don’t know, what is a pocket rescission, what has Donald Trump done, and where do you see this story going from here?

The administration sent Congress $5 billion in mostly foreign aid, that has already been allocated or appropriated, that they want clawed back. It’s called a “pocket rescission” because it acts like a pocket veto—it’s issued within 45 days of the end of the fiscal year, so that if Congress doesn’t act, the money is automatically canceled. Congress would actually have to vote to reject the rescission—they don’t have to approve it for it to go into effect; they have to stop it for it not to. It’s a route around Congress and another instance of the administration taking away congressional authority. Basically, the only job they have left is to fund the government. And the administration is trying to do it themselves.

People aren’t really upset about the $5 billion. What they’re mad about is that the administration is really testing Congress right now. And Republicans are predicting to me that this is absolutely a test. In the future, the administration is probably going to try to do this more often, but without asking Congress to approve or block it. They’re just going to eliminate congressional funding for programs they don’t want or like. It’s going to go to the courts, and it could end up in the Supreme Court. If Congress does nothing about it now, the administration could very well use this as evidence in court that Congress doesn’t care. This could have very long-term implications for the role of Congress, the balance of power, and if Congress even matters anymore.

A government shutdown got averted last time funding ran out, in March, really because Chuck Schumer caved. It feels to me that Democrats are in no mood to compromise this time around. I think the odds are better than ever that we end up with a shutdown; how do you feel about that?

I agree. Schumer is once again in a very difficult position. The same fears that existed in March still exist now. But whereas last time Schumer was actually protecting his caucus, many of whom didn’t actually want to shut down, the mood is much different now. They are so angry and pissed off at Republicans for just handing the keys to the Capitol to Donald Trump. They’re mad at Trump for a million different things, so it’s going to be really hard for them to come up with some sort of deal that Republicans can give them in order to keep the government open, and that justifies keeping the government open in these times we live in.

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