Morris ran the numbers and projected that, based on the NBA’s deal, the NFL’s media rights could hypothetically move from their current $10 billion per year to $18 billion (though he predicted the final figure would realistically come in lower). Similarly, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng recently wrote that the NFL could see a 1.8–2.0x increase in the average annual value of its $110 billion, 11-year deals, which “would be broadly in line with its historical escalations.” Meanwhile, the consensus so far is that the Sunday afternoon broadcasters, CBS and Fox, are the most likely to renew their packages. And though streamers are getting a lot more serious about sports, they remain interested in exclusive packages of games rather than carrying multiple games in the same time slot. That said, in his research note, Ng wrote that Fox was the most exposed network, “given that it is a sports-and-news pure play, with the second-largest NFL network contract.”

Analysts pointed out, also, that NBC’s Sunday Night Football could be a potential target for the streamers. For the past 20 years, the league has programmed SNF as its premier primetime package, featuring its best games. NBC has made it clear that it wants to renew the rights, but if Amazon decides it wants to upgrade from its current Thursday Night Football package, its deep pockets would make it a formidable bidder.

In many ways, that Thursday–Sunday, Amazon–NBC dynamic will be the central tension to watch as negotiations unfold. The NFL knows it can command huge increases from the TV networks; in many respects, it has them over a barrel. The trick is ensuring those increases aren’t so steep that they undermine the next bidding process, in the 2030s.

To put it in the lingua franca of the Wall Street crowd: Roger Goodell needs to figure out how to delicately, yet rapaciously, extract significant value from his longtime partners without entirely cannibalizing the relationships. “Conventional wisdom for the last 10 years was that traditional media was inevitably dying,” Morris said. “Well, the data indicates that some of the traditional media companies—particularly those with NFL relationships—are seeing that there is a floor to those subscription declines. And a not-insignificant amount of that floor is supported by the NFL.”

On baseball’s labor pains: “I love baseball, and I’m all in on fixing this problem once and for all. According to every study I’ve ever been involved with on hard salary caps, the players ultimately do just fine (especially the mid and lower players). Plus, the valuations of clubs skyrocket. Every team has hope. It’s no different than in the NFL, where tiny Green Bay, tiny Buffalo, and midsize Kansas City are on the same level as New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Of course, those leagues have centralized revenues and MLB doesn’t.” —A media executive

On the NBA’s regular season: “The NBA’s star crisis has nothing to do with the regular season. It’s a direct consequence of the insanely strict salary apron imposed by the latest C.B.A., which has made it virtually impossible to keep championship-caliber teams intact. The league’s popularity has always been built on star-making through dynasties, where superstars establish their national brand identity reaching the Finals year after year. Yet under the current system, Giannis and Luka have made two Finals appearances combined this decade. The NBA trashed its core model so more owners could have parades. It will prove to be a monumental misunderstanding of what actually drove the league’s popularity.” —A Varsity subscriber

On a newly retired exec: “Well-deserved callout on Steve Raymond’s retirement. Not only was he a super affiliate rep at ESPN (says a cable programming person), but he also built up the Adaptive Spirit (formerly SkiTam) event and ongoing incredible support for Paralympians and other fabulous athletes. His work as an exec at Charter took accessibility for its customers and employees to a new level. One of the good ones.” —A media executive

More on retired execs: “I had the pleasure of working with both John Wildhack and Raymond. Wildhack taught me a lot about looking at sports rights through the lens of what’s next, beyond just what’s now. Raymond’s tireless and passionate championing of the Paralympics and adaptive sports, especially skiing, is the first thing I learned about him when we met, and the first thing I think of now whenever I see his name.” —A broadcast executive

Have a great weekend. See you Monday.

John