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As Capitol Hill began packing up for the holidays, an intriguing piece of gossip wended its way through House Democratic circles: Was Dan Goldman in primary trouble? Goldman, after all, is something of a rising star in the party: rich, handsome, and as comfortable in the green room as he is clashing with Kristi Noem in a committee hearing. Until recently, it was widely assumed that the sophomore congressman, who represents some of the wealthiest zip codes in Lower Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn, would be a shoo-in for reelection. Then Brad Lander, the outgoing New York City comptroller, declared he would be challenging Goldman from the left—with the endorsements of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps most crucially, Zohran Mamdani, the city’s democratic socialist mayor-elect.

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It’s no secret that a number of House Democratic incumbents may be on the primary chopping block next year. Many of those vulnerable members have a distinct archetype: older and out-of-touch, the last to realize they’ve stayed too long at the fair. But that’s not Goldman’s profile at all. He’s a youthful-ish 49, has legitimate resistance street cred, and knows how to perform for the cameras after spending years beating the hell out of Trump as an MSNBC legal analyst. Also, as heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, he’s one of the wealthiest members of Congress; he spent $5 million of his own money in his 2022 primary race. “Goldman is very talented. He has a lot of money at his disposal,” said Jon Reinish, an unaligned New York Democratic consultant. “He has good local relationships.”

And yet, those are precisely the reasons that his apparent vulnerability has spooked some House Democrats. If a candidate like Goldman is in trouble, then other incumbents suddenly look a lot less safe, too.

In New York City, a House Democratic seat used to come with a semi-lifelong tenure. But the city’s political machine isn’t what it once was, as Joe Crowley, the 10-term incumbent and caucus leader, learned when he lost a primary to a 28-year-old unknown named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2018. If anything, the city’s politics have only become more liberal and anti-establishment in the intervening years. While Republicans have been counting on the Mamdani association to taint Democrats in the midterms, the 10th district is one of the few places it could be an advantage—or, at the very least, a critical test of Mamdani’s influence on the party.

A Goldman-Lander-Mamdani proxy battle would also help to illuminate another question that has been hanging over the Democratic Party: the salience of the Israel issue, which has roiled New York politics since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, and the Israeli response that followed. Goldman has described himself as a “proud Zionist and supporter of Israel,” and he was in the country on October 7. Lander, who describes himself as a liberal Zionist, came out of the gate in his December launch video tying Goldman to AIPAC and arguing that “our mayor” Mamdani, who accused Israel of genocide on the campaign trail, “can have an ally in Washington instead of an adversary in his own backyard.”

House Democrats are especially alarmed by the ruthless organization of the progressive forces aligned against Goldman, who came to office after narrowly prevailing in a crowded 2022 primary. This time around, several potential progressive candidates refrained from running and called for the left to consolidate behind Lander.

Of course, Lander will also need to prove he can translate that enthusiasm into small donors. (Presumably, the Mamdani machine can help activate volunteers.) Because he can self-fund, Goldman will begin the primary with a sizable financial advantage—and that’s before super PACs get involved. The incumbent congressman also snagged donations earlier this year from several prominent Capitol Hill Dems: Ruben Gallego, Ted Lieu, Eric Swalwell, and Steny Hoyer. The primary will likely be astronomically expensive regardless, given the cost of the New York City media market. “A lot of dumb fucking money is going to be spent in New York,” groused one House Democratic chief of staff. “And it’s money that should be spent elsewhere.”

It’s not as if Goldman has been asleep at the wheel like some of the felled incumbents of yesteryear. He already has $1.2 million raised for this campaign, a large social media following, and TV bookers on speed dial. As a former federal prosecutor who served as a staffer during Trump’s 2019 impeachment, Goldman would be a natural for party leaders to lean on for their investigations into Trump, should Democrats retake the House.

But incumbency advantage isn’t what it used to be, and Democratic members are running scared all over the country. In New York alone, nearly every Democrat in the vicinity of Manhattan has built up a cash-on-hand war chest ahead of the June primary: Adriano Espaillat has $1 million, Gregory Meeks has $2 million, and Ritchie Torres has $14 million in the bank. This fall, only Brooklyn’s Yvette Clarke announced a sub-paranoid cash stockpile ($65,000). “They’re going to have to watch their back,” the House Dem chief said of the New York delegation. “You always need to be prepared to have a challenger.”

Indeed, multiple Democratic sources have suggested that this cycle will be less reminiscent of past blue waves, like 2006 and 2018, and more like the 2010 Republican cycle, when G.O.P. members were beginning to be overcome by Tea Party insurgents, culminating two cycles later with the ouster of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Ocasio-Cortez broke the seal with her 2018 primary defeat of Crowley, but only a handful of her imitators made it to Congress, and things in New York seemed to have settled down in the interim.

Now, though, Mamdani-mentum threatens to replicate A.O.C.’s success against an even wider circle of once-comfortable incumbents. “The would-be mini-Mamdanis are coming out of the woodwork to challenge incumbents. Now, will all of them be successful? No, not all of them,” said Reinish, the Democratic consultant. “[If you’re in] New York or Chicago or Los Angeles or Philly or any of the big cities, and you’re an incumbent, you have been smartly creating a cushion for a year now.” At least, he added, “I hope you have.”

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