Welcome back to Wall Power, where we’ll attempt to put some rigor behind the results of last week’s outwardly disappointing (but possibly auspicious) back-to-back sales. I’m Marion Maneker, and I’ll be your guide.
Last week’s sales were seen as a bellwether event for reasons both geographical and historical. The major global auction centers, of course, are New York, Hong Kong, and London—where Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips first set up shop nearly 300 years ago. But certainly since Brexit, and maybe even before that, London’s stature as an international sales center has diminished. It’s no longer the gateway to Europe, and much of the art trading on the continent has migrated toward Paris.
Meanwhile, the auction houses have had outposts in Hong Kong since the 1990s, where sales activity steadily increased. After the global financial crisis, a pan-Asian market was firmly established. In recent years, Hong Kong has faced some challenges from Covid and the encroaching Mainland government. Nevertheless, all three auction houses are opening, or have opened, new headquarters in Hong Kong this year—which means they will eventually hold simultaneous sales. When those sales converge remains one of the enduring mysteries of the current market, but clues point to the fall and next spring.
With trading in London and Hong Kong presently in flux, New York’s dominant position as the industry’s capital has been temporarily amplified. Of course, that means last week’s sales will be scrutinized even more than usual. Today, using data provided to me by my friends at LiveArt, I will try to make sense of what happened.
But first…
- It’s all in the day sales: The day sales are the laboratory of the art market where buyers and sellers try out new trends that might expand upward to the evening sales. So far, these sales are telling us that the market...
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First, the bad news: There are many good reasons to fear that the U.S. elections in November will constrain what is already a frigid art market. Two years ago, of course, New York’s May sales cycle totaled $2.74 billion, with an average price per lot of $1.8 million. But by 2023, after the Covid-era orgy had subsided, the art market began a relentless contraction. This week, the May sales at Bonhams, Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s totaled $1.39 billion, down around 50 percent in two years. The average lot value was $925k. An additional 47 lots with an estimated value of $74.4 million were withdrawn to... |