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Putin’s Kharkiv Head Fake & Cabinet Kremlinology

Notes on Putin’s game theory for pressuring Kharkiv and the real reasons behind his wartime cabinet reshuffle.

vladimir putin Sergey Shoigu
Russian troops are advancing quickly in part because they haven’t yet reached Ukraine’s main defensive lines, but also because the offensive comes after key problems have been allowed to fester on the Ukrainian side. Photo: Contributor/Getty Images
Julia Ioffe
May 15, 2024

In the last few days, Russian troops have launched an offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, advancing around 5 kilometers and seizing a few border villages along the way. None of this is surprising: Ukrainian forces have been shelling the neighboring Russian region of Belgorod for months, and Russian officials have been openly discussing creating a buffer zone to protect the territory and its residents. Troops have been massing on the Russian side for weeks. The only thing left was for Vladimir Putin to approve the order to move in.