“Oh, poor Ron DeSantis”—words that few could imagine articulating a year ago, and yet which now feel entirely apt as the Florida governor embarks upon what seems like the true plank-walk stage of his historically challenged presidential campaign. There are only 10 days to go until the Iowa caucus and, like Ted Cruz before him, DeSantis has bet his entire candidacy on a strong finish in the state, praying that he’ll at least appear competitive with Trump and then accumulate the momentum—that inefficient engine of retail politics—to compete in New Hampshire. And yet, that strategy already appears set to be a loser: In Iowa, DeSantis is currently polling in the high teens, slightly ahead of Nikki Haley, who’s averaging around 16 percent, while Trump has retained a seemingly indomitable, months-long, 30 point edge. 

Despite the last-minute town halls, go-for-broke ad blitzes, and sharper jabs at Trump, the DeSantis campaign will, for all intents and purposes, likely be wrapped up in a week, unless he chooses to limp on through New Hampshire, where he’s polling in fourth behind Chris Christie, and where Haley has eclipsed him by double digits. The campaign postmortem, on some level, started almost from the moment of his delayed announcement—that tragic, glitchy Elon Musk interview on X/Twitter that was quickly overshadowed by the Trump scandal du jour—and remains concerned with the same questions: Why did he wait until May to announce his candidacy, allowing Trump to pummel him in the crib? Why did he put so much faith in his local inner circle? Was he simply never quite likable enough?