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Swalwell and Gonzales’s twin resignations looked like a neat partisan swap: one Democrat for one Republican, leaving the G.O.P.’s three-seat House margin intact. The departure of the two other members currently in ethical jeopardy—Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Republican Cory Mills, both of Florida—would also seem to neutralize any partisan advantage should they resign or get expelled. But four vacancies mean four potential special elections, and they don’t hold equal risk for the incumbent party.
