The G.O.P.’s Midterm Polling Paradox

Republicans
"It’s pretty foolish to try to distance yourself from the president as a Republican because you are going to be tied to the president regardless. You’re getting all the negatives anyway; you might as well get the positives," says Robert Blizzard. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
Leigh Ann Caldwell
December 28, 2025

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It seems like only yesterday that Republicans were riding high in Washington, and it can sometimes be hard to fathom how far they’ve fallen in a remarkably short period. In November, polls showing voter discontent with Trump’s second term manifested as Democratic overperformance up and down the ballot, from Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in deep blue New York City to Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial win in purplish Virginia, to Democrats flipping commission seats in rosy Georgia and legislative ones in scarlet Mississippi. In particular, the party has found traction on affordability issues that the president has called a “hoax”—even as Trump’s own pollsters, Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin, have been warning him that he’s losing ground on the economy and healthcare. (On December 17, Trump used a primetime address in the Oval Office to blame the previous administration, as well as immigrants, for persistent high prices.)