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For decades, the sports world’s gambling problem was treated as a disciplinary matter: Pete Rose was banned, Tim Donaghy was suspended, etcetera—and usually at the discretion of league commissioners. Then the Supreme Court blew open the door for states to legalize sports betting, prediction markets arrived, and the gambling business entered a new, more legally treacherous era. Last month, federal prosecutors charged U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with commodities fraud after he earned roughly $400,000 by trading on Polymarket using classified information about Nicolás Maduro’s fate—the first time the government has pursued criminal insider trading charges related to a prediction market.