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Alas, rather than working to expand the party’s ranks, Trump has largely used his influence over the Republican base to exile dissenters. Nearly every Republican who voted to impeach or convict him in his first term has either left office or announced plans to do so—or, as in the case of Sen. Bill Cassidy, been defeated by a Trump-backed primary challenger. The president fought especially hard to ensure Rep. Thomas Massie, the libertarian crusader who forced the release of the Epstein files, lost his primary last week. His team is now also targeting Rep. Chip Roy—who is not an election denier and backed Ron DeSantis in 2024—in the Texas attorney general contest.

The White House has intimidated Republicans in ways both subtle and overt. According to one chief of staff who attends the weekly House Republican chiefs meeting, the entire White House Office of Legislative Affairs team appears regularly on the Hill, distributing talking points and making clear that their bosses are expected to fall in line. This week, Trump issued a thinly veiled threat against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, one of just three Republicans representing districts that Kamala Harris won, saying to a reporter, “He likes voting against Trump. You know what happens with that? Doesn’t work out well.”

These kinds of pressure tactics have been working reasonably well for the president so far. He has largely extracted what he wanted from Congress, including tacit permission to wage war on Iran, broad authority to impose tariffs, a nod to rescind congressionally appropriated funds, and the unchecked dismissal of inspectors general from multiple federal agencies. Republicans, in turn, have mostly abdicated their oversight responsibilities as Trump has embarked on his second-term campaign of self-enrichment and self-protection.

New financial disclosure documents, first reported by The New York Times, show that Trump made more than 3,600 individual stock trades during the first three months of this year, including in companies with regular business before the government; separately, he and his family have generated at least $2 billion through crypto ventures. Last October, Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao after he helped get the president’s crypto company, World Liberty, off the ground. In April, Bijan Tehrani, an Australian billionaire who co-founded Stake, the largest crypto-backed online casino in the world, gave $1 million to MAGA Inc. As The New York Times reported today, the Trump administration has dropped almost all regulatory action and enforcement against crypto companies. Among the biggest beneficiaries were the Winklevoss twins, who have contributed to Trump’s ballroom and invested with the president’s sons. “It’s wild what’s happening, and they’re doing it with impunity,” one Republican strategist told me. (The White House has repeatedly said the president does not violate conflict-of-interest laws and thinks only of what’s best for the American people.)

After promising to personally fund the White House ballroom, Trump solicited $400 million in donations—many undisclosed, some from companies whose stocks he traded—before demanding Congress provide an additional $1 billion for security. He’s embarked on expensive pet projects like the reflecting pool, the East Potomac golf course, the Arc de Trump, and the ballroom, remaking federal Washington, D.C., in his image with little oversight amid a permission structure that he created by stacking approval agencies with his allies. When CBS News’s Ed O’Keefe asked Trump in the Oval Office this week who the arch is for, he said, “Me.”

But this past week may prove to be a turning point, as Republicans face down an angry electorate that blames Trump for launching an unpopular war and focusing on personal projects while failing to lower costs. Trump’s approval ratings now rank among the lowest of any second-term president, hovering in the mid-30s. As my colleague Peter Hamby reported this week, a new Puck-Echelon poll found that 64 percent of Americans think the economy is getting worse. Meanwhile, G.O.P. lawmakers who won’t be around next year—including Sens. Cassidy, Tillis, and, perhaps soon, Cornyn—are newly unshackled to vote their conscience.

It’s not a coincidence that Trump encountered more resistance from his party last week than at any point during his second term. Senate Republicans dropped a provision from an immigration enforcement bill that would have provided $1 billion in Secret Service funds tied to Trump’s ballroom. (One member told me that during a classified House briefing last week, the Secret Service could not explain how the requested $1 billion would actually be spent.) They unloaded on Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche during a closed-door meeting about the D.O.J. slush fund (Fitzpatrick went so far as to introduce legislation prohibiting the use of taxpayer dollars for that purpose). And three Senate Republicans voted to advance an Iran war powers resolution, while House leadership had to withdraw a similar resolution after concluding it was likely to pass. “It’s hard to divorce anything that happens here from what’s happening in the political atmosphere around us,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters last week.

Conservatives have begun acknowledging the backlash. One senior aide to a conservative House Republican told me that their office has received calls from constituents asking whether Trump truly said he doesn’t consider Americans’ financial situation when making decisions about the war in Iran. Even lawmakers in safe Republican districts have grown pessimistic. “I’m pretty confident we’re going to lose the House,” one member told my colleague Marianna Sotomayor. “I don’t know how we win our voters back—with or without Trump.” That pessimism persists despite Republicans going into Election Day with at least a 10-seat advantage, due to redistricting and the Supreme Court’s decision to weaken the Voting Rights Act.

Still, House Republican leadership continues to stay the course, trapped by the dilemma of modern Republican politics—distancing themselves from Trump risks alienating his base, while standing too close to him risks losing the independent voters who will decide the closest races. And yet, National Republican Congressional Committee chair Richard Hudson still believes that mobilizing Trump’s turnout machine outweighs every other consideration. “Our biggest challenge is going to be turnout,” he told me. “Midterms are tougher on Republicans. Having him engaged to help turn out some of those voters is going to be critical for us.”

True. But many Republicans just wish he’d focus on gas prices. “It’s all avoidable,” one Republican senator told me.

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