Hi, and welcome back to Line Sheet. There is so much going on.

Last night, after drinks with a friend, I stopped by the Tory Burch flagship on Rodeo Drive to celebrate the launch of All the Cool Girls Get Fired with Laura Brown and Kristina O’Neill, as well as Tory herself, who took a group of us out to dinner at Mr. Chow afterward. It was great to catch Laura and Kristina in action, doing everything they can to make their book a success. (It’s an exhausting process, and they and power-promoter memoirist Mark Ronson—who’s been equally present in my Instagram feed lately—deserve all the flowers. Who knew?!) Tory flew out for the party, which added the requisite gravitas. As one friend texted me afterward, “I gotta say, there’s no one in America like Tory Burch.” And it’s true. She is the reason for New York Fashion Week.

I was supposed to go to several other things—including Daniella Kallmeyer’s party/performance over at the Dresden to celebrate the launch of Drafting, the first publication to come out of Run-a-Muck, former Condé Nast president Pam Drucker Mann’s new media company. (Former Paper magazine editor-in-chief Justin Moran is running the newsletter, which aims to publish rough-ish ideas from cultural luminaries in the hopes of laying out “what’s next in culture.”) I didn’t make it in the end, but everyone I know had a great time.

Kallmeyer, whose star is rising fast, might not be trying to build a lifestyle business like Burch, per se, but she knows who she is. And if there is one lesson Tory Burch can offer young fashion entrepreneurs, it’s that staying true to yourself—without getting in your own way—is how to survive this wild business.

Speaking of survival, Sarah “SShapiro@puck.news” Shapiro is here today to discuss the psychological recession that’s happening in the U.S. right now, and whether brands and retailers should be really worried. Up top, I have two updates: a scoop on the future of undies disruptor Parade, and the latest in the Ty Haney saga. (Never ends. Not my fault!) Also: Sarah checked in with resellers to see if Grace Wales Bonner’s Hermès appointment has affected secondhand sales of her collection.

Mentioned in this issue: The Row, Proenza Schouler, Chanel, Coach, Tyler Haney, Outdoor Voices, Parade, Grace Wales Bonner, Hermès, The RealReal, Depop, Marie Kondo, and many, many more…

This psychological shift is happening amid a perfect storm of retail confusion—tariff uncertainty, credit tightening (as my colleague Bill Cohan has detailed), consumer fatigue, etcetera. As a result, it can be hard for brands to diagnose whether customers have pulled back on spending due to tightening budgets, exhaustion, price confusion, or simply sobering up from decades of overconsumption. To some retail executives, the slowdown feels like a personal affront—they built their careers on the premise that consumers could be nudged, gamified, or algorithmically manipulated into perpetual motion. Now, those same consumers are treating marketing like spam and algorithms like noise.

Meanwhile, the real and imagined impact of Trump’s tariffs has roiled the retail prediction market. Back in June, for example, Morgan Stanley forecast that spending growth for this year would slow to 3.7 percent, from 5.7 percent in 2024, after a surge in pre-tariff purchases was followed by a pullback. Shipments from Shein, the Chinese fast-fashion e-commerce giant, were down around 8 percent in September versus a year prior, according to Bloomberg, one of its worst monthly performances over the past three years. Meanwhile, brands are raising prices—jackets and outerwear are 24 percent more expensive this year, according to AlixPartners—despite the president’s demands that retailers accept lower margins. The average price for a dress is up 20 percent, and bags are 15 percent more expensive than last year.

Retailers can’t tell if their problems are cyclical, structural, or self-inflicted. That uncertainty can be dangerous, because they don’t know what problem to fix and might be tinkering in the wrong area. For now, they’re mostly acting as though the problem is cyclical—that sentiment will rebound, and volume will follow. But what if the real story is structural? This isn’t a temporary chill in spending; it’s a cultural repricing of consumption itself. If the last decade was defined by abundance—cheap capital, infinite content, two-day shipping—the next may be defined by calibration. Retailers are no longer competing for attention, but for justification. Every purchase—especially that $90 white tee—must now defend its existence. That’s a scary proposition for anyone who built their empire on excess.

Puck fashion correspondent Lauren Sherman and a rotating cast of industry insiders take you deep behind the scenes of this multitrillion-dollar biz, from creative director switcheroos to M&A drama, D.T.C. downfalls, and magazine mishaps. Fashion People is an extension of Line Sheet, Lauren’s private email for Puck, where she tracks what’s happening beyond the press releases in fashion, beauty, and media. New episodes publish every Tuesday and Friday.

Puck’s daily art market email, anchored by industry expert Marion Maneker, offers unparalleled access to the mega-auctions and galleries, elite buyers and sellers, and the power players who run this opaque world. Wall Power also features Julie Brener Davich, a veteran of Christie’s and Sotheby’s, who provides unique insights into how the business really works.