For about an hour inside the Dolby Theater last month, it seemed like Netflix might have finally pulled it off. All Quiet on the Western Front had beaten Babylon for best score and Elvis for best cinematography and production design, suggesting to me, and the Netflix folks I was sitting near, that a best picture shocker was at least plausible. Alas, despite spending more than $100 million campaigning over the past 7 or 8 years, co-C.E.O. Ted Sarandos still hasn’t taken home that top trophy. And now, the Academy appears likely to do something that would certainly annoy Ted & Co., and might make it costlier to win that coveted prize.

It’s all being kept quiet for now, but the Oscars are poised to enact one of the most significant rules changes in the Academy’s recent history, potentially adding a new theatrical distribution requirement for films to be eligible for best picture. According to a plan that is said to be supported by Academy C.E.O. Bill Kramer, and which must still be approved by the 54-member board of governors at its meeting in late April, films will need to play in theaters in 15 or 20 of the top 50 markets in the U.S. to be eligible. That would surely bring smiles to executive suites at the theater chains and the traditional studios, and frowny-faces to the leadership of Netflix.