Perhaps the only American rooting for the seemingly inevitable Trump-Biden rematch is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The former Democrat has made a big deal of casting his independent presidential campaign as a populist revolt against entrenched interests, including the billionaire donor establishment of both parties. But Kennedy is very much playing the billionaire fundraising game, himself, and is currently gearing up for a big-money battle against Biden and Trump.

Look, the guy won’t be president. But R.F.K. is certain to be a major storyline of the election, even if most reporters and pundits have yet to figure out if he’ll be a sideshow or a spoiler. His success could be determined, in no small part, by how much money he brings in—and whether his operation can professionalize enough to ensure he qualifies for as many state ballots as possible. “I don’t care how many podcasts you do and hands you shake,” said Sofia Karstens, an actress who runs a nascent super PAC working on ballot access for R.F.K. “If you’re not on the ballot in all 50 states, who cares?”