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Now on to the main event…

For a fleeting moment last month, House Democrats were riding high after taking the lead in the nationwide gerrymandering arms race. Virginia voters had approved their new map, clearing the way for Democrats to pick up as many as four seats and reverse any gains Republicans could make in a newly redrawn Florida. It all seemed consistent with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ own gerrymandering interests: Earlier this year, fearing the Supreme Court would hamstring the Voting Rights Act, Jeffries made plans to continue the midcycle redistricting wars post-2026.

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Then, of course, the Supreme Court did exactly what Democrats feared, and set off a mad dash for Southern Republican-controlled legislatures to erase numerous majority-Black districts. That was before Virginia’s Supreme Court invalidated the state’s own redistricting, stripping Democrats of their perceived gains there—and suddenly endangering their shot at the majority. Predictably, the Congressional Black Caucus will be most impacted by the Supreme Court’s ruling, with the potential for 20 members to lose their seats. That reality is “devastating,” said Congressional Black Caucus chair Yvette Clarke. But like most of those surveyed in the C.B.C., Clarke is determined to fight back—and, like many of her colleagues, turning to her Democratic colleagues for support.

This week, brooding House Democrats returned to Washington and gathered in meeting after meeting to strategize next steps or lament their bad luck. And while lawmakers have yet to unveil a specific road map, the now-endangered Rep. Bennie Thompson, the last remaining Democrat from Mississippi, said Democrats “will have a plan in due time.” He echoed many lawmakers who said preparations hadn’t been made in full because they had held out hope the Supreme Court wouldn’t ultimately gut the V.R.A.

In a caucus meeting on Wednesday, Democrats projected continued confidence that they’d take the House, but many were also newly and notably cautious. They urged their colleagues not to take the country’s sour mood about Republicans for granted, and encouraged donations to members facing suddenly uphill battles. As Democratic Caucus chair Pete Aguilar said, “We don’t have the luxury of saying, ‘Oh, let’s go out and win these one or two districts.’ No, we have to help everybody. We have to help the team.” And while leaders were not explicit about potential consequences for lawmakers who fail to join in the group effort, I’ve learned that leaders are definitely keeping tabs.

The C.B.C.’s most recent weekly closed-door luncheon lingered on engaging the wider party to educate voters about the potential snowball effects of redistricting. “If they come for us, they’ll come for you—that would be my message to my colleagues,” Rep. Janelle Bynum told my partner Leigh Ann Caldwell in a not-so-veiled warning. “Is there more that my colleagues could do? Absolutely, and I’m sure on some of their issues they might say there’s more that I could personally do. But this is pretty serious.”

The group always knew they had to raise awareness with voters, but many caucus members were surprised that they had to do that legwork on Capitol Hill, too. Yes, there’s been some internal help from fellow lawmakers: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez similarly noted that safe-seat Democrats “have an elevated responsibility, since we are not on the front lines … to go out and support those that are.” But plenty of C.B.C. members are pissed that prominent Democrats have failed to respond. Vincent Evans, the C.B.C. executive director, had a blunt tweet last week calling out Sen. Bernie Sanders’ silence almost two weeks after the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision. Sanders released a statement the following day.

At least one Democratic strategist I spoke to believes lawmakers who are freaking out about losing the majority “are doing so in an uninformed way.” The strategist, along with several others working on House campaigns, pointed to the party’s deliberate efforts to recruit moderate Democrats who fit their districts, as well as worsening voter sentiment toward Republicans. Plus, Democrats are betting that Black voters, including even those that supported Trump, will rebel against the Supreme Court decision by turning out in droves come November. Some House G.O.P. lawmakers and campaign strategists have even admitted as much to me.

Meanwhile, Jeffries has a lot at stake. His fervent redistricting enthusiasm has made it clear that he wants the speakership gig, and I’m told he takes the V.R.A. setback personally. Not taking back the majority would blunt plans to prove to voters that Democrats are listening to them on affordability issues, which many lawmakers say is key to shoring up the eventual 2028 presidential nominee. And if almost a third of the C.B.C. is wiped out, Democrats fear losing a bloc committed to reforming the Supreme Court.

It would obviously be painfully ironic if Jeffries becomes the first Black speaker in U.S. history while dozens of his Black colleagues lose their seats. “We’re gonna win back control of the House,” he told reporters, “and the big fight will be what happens in between 2026 and 2028, because we know this unprecedented assault on Black representation, the likes of which we have not seen since the Jim Crow era … has afflicted the Supreme Court majority, and is invading and haunting the nation right now, and we take that seriously, and we know it’s going to continue.”

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