Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest, I’m Tara Palmeri.

We’re wrapping up another week in the longest general election in history: On Monday, Trump tried to hedge and dodge the abortion issue, only to have it boomerang onto him the next day following Arizona’s shocking Supreme Court ruling, which has likely tipped the scale toward Democrats in the swing state. I broke down Trump’s evolving tactics on my podcast, Somebody’s Gotta Win, with Sam Nunberg, who recalled teaching the Queens-born Trump an easy shorthand for quickly recalling his position on abortion back in 2011: L (life of mother) I (incest) R (rape), like the Long Island Rail Road. Then, on the latest episode of the show, my colleague Teddy Schleifer and I discuss how Democrats and Republicans are applying the dark arts of politics to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the threat of the third-party challenger grows.

In tonight’s issue, what I’m hearing around Mar-a-Lago about Trump’s shifting abortion views and how the issue is shaping his V.P. calculus.

But first, here’s Abby Livingston with the latest from the Hill…

• McCarthy’s big shoes: With Johnson’s first fundraising quarter coming to a close, it’s clear the House G.O.P. conference is missing McCarthy’s big-money prowess. Earlier today, Politico reported that Johnson raised $20 million, short of the $35 million that McCarthy raised in the same quarter last year. To be fair, McCarthy spent more than two decades building his national and California fundraising operation, and $20 million is nothing to sneeze at. But will Johnson manage to ramp up his operation further? In any case, the consequences of the transition may feel abstract until the lead-up to the fall, when Republicans will start placing TV ad reservations.
• The new third rail: The latest crop of campaign ads in Democratic House primaries, particularly in those that embody the party’s divide over Israel, are not even touching the issue. To wit: Earlier this week, pro-Israel Democratic challenger George Latimer, who is facing off against New York incumbent Jamaal Bowman, an outspoken Israel critic, launched his first ad, and Israel doesn’t come up much at all. Further south, in Pennsylvania, another Squad member, Summer Lee—who’s facing a serious challenge from Bhavini Patel—unveiled her own first ad of the cycle. It focuses on abortion, cost of living, and other pocketbook issues.

  In many ways, it’s not surprising that candidates aren’t addressing the issue head-on. Intense behind-the-scenes fights over Israel-Gaza policy are taking place, and it’s yet to be determined what messaging translates into winning arguments. But Lee’s ad did highlight something that I’ve heard about since last summer: It featured Marjorie Taylor Greene as a foil, reinforcing the notion that her national name ID is off the charts.

• Arizona’s abortion litmus test: The political class is still trying to wrap its head around the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision to revert to a literal 19th century law to effectively ban abortion in the state. The scale of what’s at stake is staggering, from the presidential election to control of the state legislature. Of course, that’s because Arizona is a swing state, and one local insider asked the question on everyone’s mind: Will the decision juice Democratic turnout? The earliest indications will be the Democratic turnout in competitive primaries this fall, fundraising numbers, and Democratic voter registration. Everyone in the state, and nationally, will be watching closely.

Of course, this week’s ruling by the Arizona Supreme Court—dusting off the state’s Civil War-era abortion ban, which arrived like a neatly wrapped, political gift to the Biden campaign—has only made Trump’s veep decision thornier. Hours before the ruling, Trump announced that abortion rights should be left to the states, infuriating some of his supporters. But Trump appears adamant that the Arizona court went too far. Indeed, a source close to Trump told me that since landing on the states rights position, he has explicitly changed his V.P. calculus, removing from his shortlist governors from states without exceptions for abortion in cases of rape or incest, or any state with a so-called “heartbeat bill” before 10 weeks.

The “a-word” issue isn’t great news for Tim Scott, either. Many in Trump’s inner circle have been arguing that enlisting the party’s only Black senator would neutralize concerns among suburban, swing-state white women that Trump is racist. And on paper, Scott isn’t all that different from every other Senate Republican who supports Lindsey Graham’s proposed 15-week national abortion ban. But it’s the way Scott came out of the gate during his failed presidential campaign—leaning hard into a draconian pro-life stance, and calling a federal abortion ban a “moral obligation”—that has alarmed some Trump allies. “When Tim announced for president, they kept asking him about abortion and he gave a lot of shitty answers,” said a source with knowledge of Trump’s deliberations. (Veep hopeful Ben Carson, who was described to me as “pretty motherfucking pro-life,” doesn’t fare any better in this calculus.)

Of course, Trump’s latest positioning and general information-collection apparatus suggests that he simply wants to minimize the issue. “Trump is trying to take this off the table, and he’s looking to the V.P. to be able to do that,” said a source who is advising him on the issue. “The type of people who can take on the issue and articulate it, that’s what he needs.”

But the truth is that no Republican can truly take the abortion issue off the table for Trump, who hand-picked the conservative justices that went on to nuke Roe and set the stage for Arizona’s antebellum court ruling. If that state was in play before—Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 11,000 votes—it’s even more up for grabs now that Arizona residents will have an abortion measure on the November ballot. “It’s fucking bad, this is what everyone’s nightmare scenario has been since Dobbs” said the source with knowledge. “That a functional total ban would hit a swing state.”

Consequently, Vance’s stock is rising among many close Trump allies. “He’s intelligent, and he won’t outshine Trump because he’s just another white guy,” said a source with knowledge of the situation. “I’d take J.D. seriously. Especially since Don Jr. and Steve Bannon and that whole ilk are really pushing J.D.” Added another advisor: “Trump likes him, and Trump thinks he made him.”

As the list gets smaller and Trump grows tired of the unctuous Scott, Marco Rubio’s stock has been rising, too. It helps that he’s close with Susie Wiles and Kellyanne Conway, who have been pushing for a Trump-Rubio ticket. Sure, Rubio would have to leave Florida, given the constitutional penalty imposed on two candidates from the same state on a presidential ticket. But Rubio has privately made it clear he’s tired of the Senate. Maybe relocating wouldn’t be so far-fetched. But with the whims of Trump, it’s far too early to put up the for sale sign.