And now here’s Scott with the main event…

How a film performs in theaters is closer in spirit to blackjack than poker. For most movies, after all, success is judged against their individual budgets and industry expectations, rather than whether they out-earn the competition. It’s not a matter of one blockbuster swiping the whole pot, but rather whether it can earn enough to “beat” the house.

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Looking at 10 relatively high(er)-budget releases set to drop between the Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends, here’s my cheat sheet on how the industry will measure return on investment (executives typically look for 2.5x the production budget). Yes, in most cases, a nice Tomatometer score can somewhat make up for less-than-optimal box office, especially for franchise plays that offer a higher ancillary ceiling or don’t cost an arm and a leg. It’s not quite an exact science, and each film presents its own specific benchmarks for fortune and glory. Happy summer…

Reported budget: $165 million
Needs to hit: $475 million

Will this be the way? Jon Favreau’s mostly stand-alone Star Wars story has a weight upon its shoulders disproportionate to a film that reportedly cost about as much as Ant-Man and the Wasp. Nonetheless, success for Lucasfilm and Disney might be less about the raw rate of return (2.5x the alleged budget would be just $412 million) than overall consumer sentiment. Even noting the mixed reviews thus far, if general moviegoers—especially kids, families, and more-casual Star Wars fans—show up, then even a Solo-sized global gross ($394 million in 2018, on a reshoot-inflated $275 million budget) might be spun as a first step toward franchise rehabilitation after a seven-year break from theaters. (My 11-year-old, who had to be bribed to come along and uttered upon conclusion, “I don’t even like Star Wars, but that was a very good movie.”) With Shawn Levy’s Ryan Gosling–starring Star Wars: Starfighter arriving next Memorial Day weekend, perhaps success is more a matter of whether enough Grogu merch flies off the shelves between now and Labor Day.

Reported budget: $170 million
Needs to hit: $350 million

I’m not surprised that a big-budget action-fantasy directed by Travis Knight has garnered strong initial buzz, at least from those at the film’s premiere (Amazon MGM is embargoing reviews from actual critics until the morning of June 6). The guy who runs Laika and directed both Kubo and the Two Strings and Paramount’s Bumblebee knows how to craft a crowd-pleasing biggie. However, history shows that even a surprisingly good movie based on less popular I.P. does not automatically equate to box office magic (see: Power Rangers, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves).

Considering the Prime Video advantage, relative success for this attempt at a He-Man franchise might be less about the rate of return in theaters—it may even be bested domestically by Paramount’s far cheaper Scary Movie 6—than whether the movie doesn’t outright crap the bed stateside, Jack the Giant Slayer–style. Ideally, Masters of the Universe continues the recent trend of Amazon MGM’s theatricals, with the exception of Melania, being varying degrees of “pretty damn good” and ultimately performing on the service.

Reported budget: $115 million
Needs to hit: $300 million

With initial unofficial tracking suggesting a $45 million–$60 million domestic debut—even if official tracking ends up pointing toward a $35 million opening weekend—this summer’s other tentpole wild card may also end up delivering something approximating victory. While today’s kids might not give a darn about Steven Spielberg—you know, the guy who directed Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and Minority Report—most of them grew up with the Jurassic World series. Even if this original sci-fi film doesn’t click with general audiences here or overseas, it’ll come amid a year for Universal that already includes The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (which is a couple of weeks from cracking $1 billion worldwide), the surefire blockbuster Minions & Monsters, and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

While the studio would prefer to actually make money from Spielberg’s Emily Blunt– and Josh O’Connor–led thriller, executives can probably spin it as a success if the movie earns good reviews and a halfway-decent audience reception. It’s odd to think of a big-budget Spielberg popcorner as a prestige play, akin to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but welcome to 2026.

Reported budget: unavailable, but estimated at $175 million-$225 million
Needs to hit: $750 million

It seems that many people are genuinely looking forward to a fifth Woody-and-Buzz adventure: Some early tracking has the Andrew Stanton–directed picture opening as high as $175 million. As always, the key variables will be whether it artistically justifies itself relative to its four beloved predecessors and if it earns enough to avoid being put on the defensive for otherwise exceptional grosses. For reference, Toy Story 3 became just the sixth movie ever to pass $1 billion globally in June 2010, while Toy Story 4 was among six Disney releases to do so in 2019 alone. A poorly reviewed and comparatively frontloaded Toy Story 5 that still passes $400 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide might be of some slight concern to Disney, but an acclaimed and leggy sequel that earns “only” $300 million domestic (from, say, a $90 million launch) and $750 million worldwide won’t exactly be a catastrophe.

Reported budget: unavailable, but estimating roughly $170 million
Needs to hit: $425 million

With a budget allegedly closer to Jon Favreau’s $165 million The Mandalorian and Grogu than James Gunn’s reported $225 million Superman, this Craig Gillespie–directed Supergirl can gross less than that film’s $353 million domestic and $619 million worldwide cume and still be spun as a win. Again, much will depend on how well it is reviewed and received by fans. Last summer, audiences liked the David Corenswet–starring Man of Steel reboot and seemed at least somewhat curious about Milly Alcock’s briefly introduced Woman of Tomorrow. That would imply interest in a solo adventure for the latter, especially one that sells itself as an outer-space superhero flick by way of John Wick.

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Warner Bros. would surely prefer a $500 million-plus global gross, especially as the studio’s first half of 2026 (The Bride, Lee Cronin’s The Mummy, Mortal Kombat II) hasn’t performed remotely on par with the same period last year, which featured Minecraft, Sinners, and Final Destination Bloodlines. However, the second installment of the second shot at a DC universe comes as even the MCU is struggling to maintain A-level relevance. There’s also that whole “new ownership structure” thing to consider. As such, good reviews, good legs, and merely good grosses (say, around $425 million) will be good enough.

Reported budget: $85 million
Needs to hit: $900 million

Like Toy Story 5, Universal and Illumination’s latest installment of their flagship animated franchise will surely end up among the season’s biggest grossers. Fashioned as a love letter to 1920s silent cinema, which goes hand in hand with the brand’s Looney Tunes–style comedic chaos, this prequel to the prequels should presumably fall in line with previous Minions outings. From Despicable Me 2 ($970 million in 2013) to Despicable Me 4 ($972 million in 2024), the follow-ups have been remarkably consistent, averaging just over $1 billion worldwide each, with a spread from $941 million for Minions: The Rise of Gru in 2022 to $1.1 billion for Minions in 2015.

Of course, much of the risk calculus for the entire Universal slate is predicated on this release matching its $900 million-plus predecessors. Coming after a spring in which The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dropped 25 percent from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, we’ll hold it to the same standard.

Reported budget: unavailable but estimating around $200 million
Needs to hit: $575 million

As Disney’s first live-action remake of an animated film from the 2010s, it’s easy to presume that the source material’s present-tense popularity will be enough to set the floor at a Little Mermaid–like $575 million worldwide. That 2023 release earned an impressive $295 million in North America but struggled overseas due to a domestic-skewing I.P. and a lack of “What else ya got for me?” elements.

Whether Dwayne Johnson reprising as Maui qualifies as added value, especially abroad, is an open debate. Johnson’s overseas muscle has sharply atrophied since the late 2010s. And there’s less novelty at play. (In other words, this is not like Angelina Jolie as Maleficent or Will Smith playing Genie in Aladdin.) Again, reviews and buzz will be essential in selling the notion that this is anything more than a shameless cash grab.

Reported budget: $250 million
Needs to hit: $700 million

Like a few of the other titles on this list, the big question is whether this movie can match its most hyperbolic expectations coming off Nolan’s $975 million–grossing Oppenheimer, a crowd-pleasing, three-hour, R-rated melodrama about the making of the atom bomb. How much more does this Matt Damon-, Tom Holland-, Zendaya-, and Anne Hathaway-led epic earn compared to, say, Interstellar ($189 million in North America and $677 million worldwide, sans reissues, in 2014)? The answer for Universal may depend on the extent to which it provides elements of surprise. That could mean a hard lean into fantasy or a pulpy tone closer to Batman Begins than Dunkirk. Or will the movie, partially inspired by Emily Wilson’s translation, work as classics-bro catnip in the tradition of Troy ($497 million way back in 2004) or Gladiator II ($462 million in late 2024)? Oddly, the biggest peril for The Odyssey is in being perceived as merely pretty good and only pretty successful.

Reported budget: unavailable but estimating roughly $200 million
Needs to hit: $999,999,999.99

I don’t expect Sony’s fourth MCU-affiliated outing to pull grosses on par with the $1.9 billion of Spider-Man: No Way Home, which played with multiple generations of Spidey fans who showed up to see Tom Holland, Tobey Maguire, and Andrew Garfield in one multiverse. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, with Destin Daniel Cretton taking over directing duties from Jon Watts, is selling itself as a street-level Spidey story that’s more about this in-universe Peter Parker’s solo adventures than tying into Sony’s previous franchises or the broader MCU. Even as my default pick to be the year’s biggest worldwide earner, there’s a lot of wiggle room between Far From Home’s $1.1 billion total, or even Deadpool & Wolverine’s $1.3 billion cume from this same weekend in 2024, and No Way Home’s sky-high performance.

Even in today’s less predictable marketplace, expectations are such that a less eventized Spider-Man sequel should still crack $1 billion worldwide. That said, between you and me, I wouldn’t be too grim about a well-received, well-reviewed, and relatively leggy Spider-Man 4 that ends up closer to $999 million worldwide.

Reported budget: $85 million
Needs to hit: $200 million

Okay, so Warner Bros. would very much like this high-concept sci-fi original to be, well, if not the final tentpole-size hit of the summer, then at least (aspirationally speaking) something comparable to the $270 million global haul for Zach Cregger’s Weapons. It’s a roll of the dice on writer-director David Robert Mitchell, since It Follows and Under the Silver Lake attracted more online critical approval than theatrical butts in seats. But this Hathaway- and Ewan McGregor–led sci-fi adventure, involving a suburban neighborhood inexplicably transported to parts unknown, will be another chance to show that Warner Bros.’s Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy can push an auteur-driven one-and-done movie to fortune and glory. Yes, the reviews will matter, and even with Hathaway adding star power, the goal for this dinosaur romp (ironically opening on the same day as PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie) is less blockbuster than impressive-on-a-curve theatrical revenue. That’s just where we’re at with non-I.P. plays these days.

Thanks, Scott. See everyone tomorrow.

Matt

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