Now on to my Grammy week chat with Dave…

Unlike Hollywood with the Oscars, the entire music business convenes around various events tied to Grammy Week each winter. No better time to debut a new Puck contributor Dave Brooks, a veteran music journalist and touring business expert who will contribute occasional news and analysis from the music world. Tonight, Dave and I go back and forth on several hot topics, including the current hierarchy of streaming platforms, the viability of the Sphere, the financial health of the Recording Academy, and the Grammys’ possible move to a new home—Steve Ballmer’s Intuit Dome?—after Sunday’s show.

Matt: Happy Grammy week, Dave, and welcome to the Puck extended family. I want to start with the Grammys themselves. This is the last year of CBS’s 50-plus-year relationship with the show, which is bolting to Disney/ABC in 2027 as part of a 10-year, $500 million-plus deal. You were telling me that the Grammys venue could change next year too, is that right?

Dave: Yes. I’m told AEG’s contract to host the Grammys at downtown’s Crypto.com Arena is up after this year’s show. And here’s some news: L.A. Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is putting together a bid to lure music’s biggest night across town to his $2 billion Intuit Dome. Part of Ballmer’s sales pitch to Recording Academy C.E.O. Harvey Mason Jr. will be Intuit’s fan-first design, with its steep vertical seating and loud acoustics.

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But Intuit only has about 100 luxury suites, which could be a problem because roughly half of the $12 million the Grammys generate each year from the current AEG deal comes from leasing Crypto.com’s 172 suites for the night and splitting the proceeds with AEG. The other $6 million comes from tickets—the Grammys manage the sale of roughly 16,000 seats for the event and keep 100 percent of the revenue.

Matt: Not a bad deal. You think the Grammys would leave their home for 23 of the past 26 shows? Downtown L.A. has the Peacock Theater for the preshow awards and the convention center for the afterparty and MusiCares event. I remember when Grammy Week moved to New York in 2018, it was kind of a disaster, with a much smaller venue for the MusiCares ceremony, bad weather, and the city reneged on some promised incentives.

Dave: I’m told Mason is supportive of an Intuit bid, which would likely apply competitive pressure on AEG at a time when the cost of producing the Grammys has shot up. The Recording Academy’s tax returns are public, and its most recent filings reveal the 2024 event costs ballooned to $46 million, up 22 percent from 2023 and a staggering 76 percent increase from 2020. Overall, the organization posted record revenue of $107.1 million in 2024, but a $14.7 million loss due to those production costs. Since 2020, the Recording Academy has operated at a deficit in four of the past five years (Covid certainly didn’t help), and sources tell me the board is concerned. Matt: Yikes. Why is the show so much more expensive now? Dave: The Academy’s tax returns do not include a line-by-line breakdown of Grammy-related expenses. They do, however, list the five largest contractors, all production companies, which billed a combined $33 million in 2024, along with $12 million in unspecified “event expenses.” Producer Ben Winston’s company, Fulwell 73, billed the Recording Academy $20.1 million as the lead producer of the CBS telecast—more than double what Fulwell charged in 2023.

Matt: Sabrina Carpenter, Justin Bieber, and Lady Gaga have been announced as performers, but am I wrong that the Grammys lineup feels a bit less starry this year?

Dave: I don’t think all the performers have been announced yet, but yes, this year feels a little lighter. There’s a lot of buzz for Pharrell Williams and a reunited Clipse, which is Pusha T and Malice, who dropped a record last year—after a 16-year lull—that’s landed them five nominations, including album of the year. Post Malone, Ms. Lauryn Hill, and Reba McEntire were added for the memorial section of the show. I expect one or two big names will be announced on Friday, maybe Kendrick Lamar or a return by Bruno Mars, both of whom are up for record of the year. Part of the issue is that nearly all the record of the year artists played the Grammys last year. Bad Bunny is up for both record and album of the year, but he’s playing the Super Bowl in a week. Matt: Bieber at the Grammys is a big deal, considering he hasn’t performed publicly in two years and not regularly since he canceled his tour in 2022. Does he still owe money to AEG from that cancellation? The speculation is that he’s gonna tour either later this year or in 2027, and that his Coachella headlining performance will kick that off. Is that what you’re hearing? Dave: Technically, Bieber owed the money to his former manager, Scooter Braun. Back in 2022, Bieber had to cancel the Justice tour because he was suffering from facial paralysis caused by some serious health issues. AEG had fronted him $40 million and wanted a lot of the money back when he canceled—I heard the figure was $26 million. Braun stepped in and paid AEG the full sum. So Bieber likely owed Braun $26 million, as well as $4 million in unpaid commissions, and last year they reached a settlement, in part with money Bieber made from selling his music catalog in 2023. (Yes, he’s only 31.) His Coachella set marks a major return to live for him, as well as a return to relevance for Coachella, which has struggled with ticket sales the previous two years but sold out in a couple days after announcing Bieber. He’s making $10 million off his two Coachella sets and negotiated the gig without an agent, I was told, which saves him a pricey commission. After Coachella, he is expected to announce a North American stadium tour, although the big question right now is how long the tour will run. There’s huge demand, but he and wife Hailey are being very conservative, and as of now, sources say he only wants to play 10 to 12 shows. A lot of people hope he’ll do more.

Matt: Speaking of tours, what acts are industry players most excited about this year? Bruno and Ariana Grande seem like they’re gonna be standouts. I was just looking at the numbers from last year, and the big acts seem to be getting younger. Only one of the top 10 artists (Post Malone) is under 35, but only one (Oasis) is over 50. I know the older fans have driven the touring business for years because they can afford the top ticket prices, but do you see a real shift in the market here, or will we end 2026 with the Rush 50th anniversary tour up there with AC/DC?

Dave: This is the youngest top 10 we’ve seen in years! There’s no Elton John, or Rolling Stones, or Bruce Springsteen, or Madonna. Beyoncé, the top draw, is 44, and four acts in the top 10—Kendrick Lamar, the Weeknd, Lady Gaga, and Post Malone—are under 40 and had songs on the Hot 100 in the past 12 months. More people are spending more money to see contemporary artists with current hits than they have in the past. Second, some acts—like Imagine Dragons and Coldplay—are tapping into underserved markets like East Asia, India, and the Middle East, and they’re being rewarded, in part, by being first. Lastly, fewer big legacy acts are on the road right now. The oldest bands playing stadiums in ’26 are Journey, Mötley Crüe, and Guns N’ Roses. Matt: Great point. So who are you excited about? Dave: Harry Styles is shaping up to be the biggest tour of 2026—he’s basically performing residency shows in major cities on three continents. So far, it’s 10 shows in Amsterdam and London, and 30 shows at Madison Square Garden in New York. More cities are almost certainly coming. BTS, coming off a four-year hiatus, is another huge tour that sold out in seconds.

One thing to watch this summer: Michael Rapino at Live Nation has warned that the FIFA World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in North America in June and July, will materially impact the number of stadium shows this summer. That’s a one-time blip.

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Matt: Speaking of Live Nation, its stock is down about 15 percent from its high in September. Why?

Dave: Despite how Live Nation spins the data, the main two companies that track concert ticket sales—Pollstar and Billboard—have both reported that sales for the year are essentially flat or down slightly. The top 100 tours for 2025 grossed about $9.5 billion, flat year over year. The other major metric, average ticket price, is down a few cents over 2024. That’s after four years of consistent growth coming out of the pandemic. So the message to Wall Street is that growth is more difficult to find, especially in North America, which is a very mature market. Also keep in mind that Live Nation and Ticketmaster are still fighting the D.O.J. effort to break them up. The stock would probably be down even further if not for the weakness of the government’s case. Last week, Live Nation filed a lengthy motion to dismiss calling into question the government’s own math about whether Ticketmaster is a monopoly. I think the case is seen more as a tossup now than a few months ago, when many thought it heavily favored the state attorneys general and the D.O.J.

Matt: How bullish are you on the Sphere? Wizard of Oz is pretty clearly a hit, with more than 2 million tickets sold, but Jim Dolan hasn’t announced any follow-up, and the live acts are still sporadic (though I’m definitely seeing No Doubt this spring). The Sphere share price has more than doubled in a year.

Dave: I’m more bullish on Sphere now that a second, smaller venue is planned for outside D.C. Scalability has long been the missing piece of the Sphere model. The venue’s video capabilities are extraordinary, but each production costs between $10 million and $20 million to stage. A friend who represents an act that has played Sphere told me the cloud-hosting bill alone to store a show’s video components was roughly $900,000. Those costs are extremely difficult to amortize across a limited run at a single venue. A second Sphere spreads those expenses across more performances and expands the pool of acts that can make the economics work. Wizard of Oz is performing well for Dolan, and I think a slate of 10 to 14 acts per year is the right content mix. I’m especially bullish on pricing: Fans are clearly willing to pay $200 to $300 per ticket. Matt: Finally, let’s do a ranking of how the labels feel about the distribution platforms. I feel like YouTube has been the villain for years now, paying the lowest royalty rates. But then someone who would know told me last week that the hierarchy has changed. Where are artists and labels with YouTube, Spotify, Apple, Amazon, and the rest? Dave: I hear the most complaints about Spotify—not over royalty rates but over its discovery platform algorithm, and its increased use of A.I. music, and its bundling of audiobooks with the premium subscription tier, which some critics rightly argue pulls from the same revenue pool previously accessible only to artists. The Spotify algorithm tends to prioritize music that has a lower royalty rate in exchange for that song’s promotion by Spotify. So say I ask Spotify to play “Dire Wolf” by the Grateful Dead. After that song is over, Spotify will play a song being promoted by one of Spotify’s label partners, as opposed to another Dead track. Big rights holders think this is unfair and that the next few streams should be music by the same artist. YouTube comes in second, mainly because its royalty rates and payouts per stream are among the lowest of the big services. Most people I talk to say Apple pays out the most per stream, followed by Amazon, then Spotify, then YouTube. Some labels are annoyed that YouTube stopped reporting its streaming data to Billboard, especially hip-hop and major pop acts who more heavily rely on YouTube. Matt: Where are you sitting on Grammy night? CBS invites me but I’m in a media block one level up. Dave: This year a friend who bought one of the suites invited me there, though I’ve been told that everything that happens is strictly off the record. Any dispatches you get from me will pertain to what’s happening onstage only.

Sadly, the Melania billboard directly outside Amazon’s HQ in Culver City has been desecrated. (Thanks to former TV Line editor Michael Ausiello for posting…)

See you Monday, Matt

Sundance follow-up: CAA and events producer Danielle Pelland want everyone to know there’s no beef between them after the security breach and alleged assault on Maxwell Frost at last week’s party. Noted! In addition, a few Park City folks objected to me pointing a finger at locals for the festival’s move to Boulder. It’s true that Utah legislators refused to match Colorado’s financial incentives, but I’d argue the increasingly frosty relations between Sundance and a vocal segment of the local community played a key role. Got a question, comment, complaint, or some tasteful earplugs? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.

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