A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

And speaking of upcoming Amazon movies…

Have you seen the early numbers for the Melania movie? National Research Group put out a new forecast today for the infamous—sorry, inspirational—Melania Trump documentary, executive produced by the first lady herself and directed by Brett Ratner, for which Amazon MGM Studios paid a perfectly normal, totally reasonable $40 million. The movie is expected to gross around $5 million in the U.S. and Canada over the weekend of January 30 in about 1,400 or 1,500 theaters, per NRG. (I’m told Amazon’s internal projections are all over the place.) Presales are unsurprisingly falling fairly strictly along red/blue lines.

There’s been some negative media coverage based on slow initial sales in big cities, but an evening showing of Melania at the AMC North Park 15 in a red part of Dallas is already more than half booked. Multiple sources told me that the overall numbers have ticked up this week, closer to the presales for Reagan, the gushing biopic that opened to $7.7 million over the long Labor Day holiday in 2024. Opening weekend will follow a 20-city preview next Thursday night, coinciding with what I’m sure will be a tasteful, understated gala premiere at the venue temporarily known as the Trump Kennedy Center. Jokes aside, $5 million would actually be a pretty good opening number for a documentary in this theatrical climate. (Amazon’s Chris Pratt thriller Mercy might not even crack $10 million this weekend on more than twice as many screens.) One close observer told me Melania is definitely showing some life on tracking, though it’s far from a breakout. Conservative political movies are hard to predict, and when I polled a few box office analysts, they noted Melania could perform like Am I Racist?, the right-wing mockumentary from the Daily Wire braintrust that opened to $4.5 million last September on its way to more than $12 million, more than four times its production budget, per Vulture. After Death, a doc about near-death religious experiences from the faith-based distributor Angel Studios, opened to $5.1 million in 2023.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Those movies all cost their distributors a lot less than $40 million, of course, and on the pessimistic side, Melania could perform like The Apprentice, the Donald origin story that opened to less than $2 million on 1,700 screens last year, though that was hardly a sympathetic portrait. Trump is understandably more enthused about Melania, which, after all, was produced by its subject, and follows her during the 20 days leading up to the 2025 inauguration. “I’ve seen pieces of it. It’s incredible,” Trump declared last week. I bet. Amazon has not shared the film with critics, and won’t before its release.

So about $5 million for a Melania infomercial would be as good as any doc post-Covid. We’re a long way from right-wing provocateur Dinesh D’Souza grossing $33 million for 2016: Obama’s America in 2012, and nowhere near the heyday of Michael Moore, whose Fahrenheit 9/11 took in a staggering $220 million worldwide in 2004 (that’s $377 million in today’s money). A more realistic goal would be matching the Ruth Bader Ginsburg homage RBG, which grossed $14 million in theaters in 2018.

Still, despite that low box office ceiling, Amazon is putting some outsize muscle behind Melania, which is getting at least some theaters in 27 countries, with FilmNation handling the international rollout. I’m told Mike Hopkins, Amazon’s top content exec, committed to more than $35 million in worldwide P&A spend (the cost of marketing and releasing the movie in theaters). That’s insanely high for a documentary—though does it shock you? The $40 million acquisition price was widely perceived as a barely veiled payoff to keep Trump happy. I suspect dropping an additional $35 million to promote the film will not be nearly as costly to Amazon as the president being upset when his wife’s vanity doc doesn’t open. For context, even the Taylor Swift concert documentary spent far less on P&A, though she has a lot more followers than the first lady, who has posted about Melania more than a dozen times on Instagram in recent weeks. Amazon has bought pricey national TV ads during NFL football, as well as a Sphere takeover in Vegas, and a full outdoor campaign, even in blue cities. I’m pleased to report that the billboard on Westwood Boulevard in West L.A. had managed to remain un-defaced as of last night, though several others have suffered an uglier fate, and social media is awash with videos of moviegoers booing the trailer when it plays in big-city theaters. In addition, Hopkins is expected to attend next week’s premiere in D.C., as is film chief Courtenay Valenti and several other Amazon execs who’d probably prefer to be one million other places than a hostage parade for the cameras on a Trump red carpet. It’s still unclear if Jeff Bezos will be there, though two sources told me Trump invited him. (The White House didn’t respond to my email.) The film is expected to appear on Prime Video after a three- or four-week window, though that date could be moved up if the audience in theaters does not materialize. Hopkins has been telling people he believes the title will be a strong performer on the service, which would certainly temper some of the criticism of paying such a high price. Will it? Let’s see if Trump and Fox News coordinate next week to drive ticket sales.

The Melania movie is arriving at an interesting time for Amazon’s Hollywood experiment. Multiple sources tell me that Hopkins is about to drop another reorganization and a new round of layoffs, this one focused on the television side under global TV head Peter Friedlander, who arrived from Netflix in September. Friedlander’s goal is to eliminate fiefdoms and streamline development at the studio, which is known for a decidedly un-streamlined process that confuses many around town. Amazon just did layoffs in October, and I can’t even count the various reorgs over the past few years, but additional cuts at the studio are coming, per three sources familiar. That’s in line with Seattle’s mandate to eliminate layers of management throughout the company.

Despite this, an Amazon source pushed back when I suggested that the overall output of the TV group would likely decline, especially as Hopkins pursues additional sports rights. Prime Video aired 59 shows in 2025, up from 42 in the strike-hobbled 2024 and a bit of an outlier as platforms like HBO Max and even Netflix aired fewer last year, according to Luminate. Those numbers will grow, per the source at the studio; the shows will just be produced by a smaller organization, they hope. Amazon has scaled back some of its spending growth trajectories in the wake of its new $1.9 billion-a-year deal for the NBA. In addition, Hopkins is said to be under pressure to generate more from the $8.5 billion purchase of MGM, which he spearheaded in 2021. Among others, there’s a Thomas Crown Affair film remake coming next year from Michael B. Jordan, and Elle, a TV prequel adaptation of Legally Blonde, which scored a second season months before the first debuts, in July. At the same time, Valenti and the film side of Amazon are poised for either a breakout year—or one that proves the studio is not yet ready to compete with the big guns. Amazon is set to release more than a dozen films in theaters in 2026, starting with Mercy and including the big-budget bets Project Hail Mary (March 20) and Masters of the Universe (June 5). Without an I.P. trove to exploit, can Amazon evolve into a real player in theaters? If Melania becomes an unlikely blockbuster, maybe she can start picking the movies.

For the last Sundance in Park City, producer, proprietor of the Jamie’s List newsletter, and WIH food correspondent Jamie Patricof offers a few spots to savor before the move to Boulder…

I haven’t skipped a Sundance in two decades, and I’ll be back for the 20th anniversary screening of my first film, Half Nelson. I’m excited for Boulder—well, excited for a new city’s culinary scene—but there are many restaurants in Park City I’ll miss. So this year, make sure to hit up El Chubasco for some camarónes a la diabla, Freshie’s for a lobster roll and clam chowder, and The Eating Establishment for a “hungry miner skillet.” And for the NFL playoffs, Collie’s has great beer and wings. Finally, for those who crave the famous Deer Valley turkey chili, a little-known fact: They now offer chili to go by the half or full gallon. If you’re staying with friends, that’s how to be the perfect house guest.

See you Monday, Matt

Got a question, comment, complaint, or a searchable database of Blake Lively’s texts? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.

Need help? Review our FAQ page or contact us for assistance. For brand partnerships, email ads@puck.news.

You received this email because you signed up to receive emails from Puck, or as part of your Puck account associated with {{customer.email}}. To stop receiving this newsletter and/or manage all your email preferences, click here.

Puck is published by Heat Media LLC. 107 Greenwich St., New York, NY 10006