Hello and welcome back to What I’m Hearing+. I’m Eriq Gardner coming to you this evening while Matt is in drizzly Scotland at the Edinburgh TV Festival.

Tonight, I’ve got news and notes on an epic Anthropic suit, an F.T.C. battle, and a David Ellison legal headache over who really wrote Top Gun: Maverick. And with no major film releases coming before Labor Day, we’re bringing Scott Mendelson into the WIH+ fraternity for his end-of-summer box office analysis. Herewith…

Tuesday Thoughts…

Anthropic’s “innocent infringement” defense: Last month, Judge William Alsup issued a blockbuster decision in the lawsuit brought by a group of authors against Anthropic, siding with the A.I. company’s argument that training its model on millions of books was fair use. But in a surprise, Alsup basically declared the company liable anyway for infringing on copyrights when it created an unsanctioned “library” of pirated books to set up the training process. He scheduled a trial for December 1 to determine how much Anthropic will owe in damages.

Anthropic, which is currently raising money at a reported $170 billion valuation, sees the class-action suit as an existential threat. So last week, the company filed an emergency petition to the Ninth Circuit, warning that statutory damages—up to $150,000 per work (though more likely, based on history, $10,000 to $50,000 per work)—could add up to a multihundred-billion-dollar penalty. The plaintiffs, meanwhile, have offered to cap any appellate bond at $5 billion in a push to have the trial proceed.

For those of a certain age, this may trigger flashbacks to when Napster, the music-sharing company, was driven into bankruptcy by copyright suits brought by Metallica, Dr. Dre, and the Recording Industry of America. Those cases never made it to trial—Napster challenged early losses in the Ninth Circuit, then folded before the courts could finish the job. This time, absent a deus ex machina from appellate judges, Bartz v. Anthropic will reach a jury.

Anthropic hopes to convince jurors that downloading books from pirate sites for a library was done in good faith, under the belief that training an L.L.M. was protected under fair use. (Those copies never got used to actually train its model. Anthropic later purchased print editions and digitized them.) This so-called “innocent infringement” defense could limit liability to just $200 per work.
F.T.C. loses a round against free speech: In case you missed it, on Friday a D.C. federal judge blocked the Federal Trade Commission’s investigation of Media Matters, calling the probe “a straightforward First Amendment violation.” The F.T.C.’s investigation was based on alleged coordination among the George Soros–backed Media Matters and other liberal media groups to push advertisers to boycott Elon Musk’s X. Media Matters countered that the investigation was simply retaliation, driven by Trump and Musk, for its coverage of antisemitic content on X. Judge Sparkle Sooknanan agreed, writing, “It should alarm all Americans when the government retaliates against individuals or organizations for engaging in constitutionally protected public debate.” (The F.T.C. is now seeking its own emergency appeal.)

Of course, this won’t be the Trump administration’s last attempt to turn competition law into a blunt instrument for policing speech. Last month, the D.O.J.’s Antitrust Division, led by Assistant A.G. Abigail Slater, quietly filed a “statement of interest” in a lawsuit brought by Children’s Health Defense (yes, R.F.K. Jr.’s old, anti-vax outfit) against The Washington Post, BBC, AP, and Reuters, which takes them to task for the Trusted News Initiative, an alliance formed to flag vaccine and Covid disinformation. Children’s Health Defense argues that, rather than a fact-checking vehicle, the Trusted News Initiative amounts to a group boycott. The Trump administration is leaning into this notion of “viewpoint collusion.” (Here’s the statement.)

The media defendants, for their part, are basically rolling their eyes. Their response: Even if you take this Sherman Act cosplay seriously, there’s no evidence that Facebook, Google, or X acted under orders from a media cabal.

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Ellison’s ‘Top Gun’ screenwriter suit: David Ellison expected to inherit plenty of legal headaches with Paramount, but a dispute over who really wrote Top Gun: Maverick—which Skydance helped finance and produce—was probably not near the top of the list. (I’d love to see his face when Paramount’s lawyers explain why the company currently faces some 20,000 asbestos claims from shipyard workers, dating back to its previous ownership of Westinghouse.) Still, for a new studio boss with visions of another Top Gun sequel, this case is worth watching.

The plaintiff, Shaun Gray, happens to be the cousin of Eric Singer, one of seven credited screenwriters on Maverick. Gray claims he ghostwrote key scenes, including the opening action sequence, and deserves a co-writing credit. On August 8, Judge Jed Rakoff allowed Gray’s copyright infringement claim to move forward, though he tossed the more ambitious bid for co-ownership of the Tom Cruise franchise. Gray is represented by Marc Toberoff, who has made a career out of giving studios grief on the I.P. front. Singer, meanwhile, hasn’t said much publicly about his cousin’s claims, but he retained the prominent entertainment litigator Michael Plonsker, who’s been cooperating with Paramount.

Paramount is now countersuing, accusing Gray of hiding his behind-the-scenes role so he could later “shake down” the studio. That’s a standard counterattack to this type of lawsuit. More interesting is the studio’s effort to access a 2023 Writers Guild investigation into the authorship of Maverick, which was conducted after Gray claimed he was pushed to stay silent during an earlier credit arbitration. Paramount believes that evidence collected during the probe may contradict Gray’s version of events.

The WGA, represented by Anthony Segall, is pushing back—invoking attorney-client privilege and warning that disclosures would undercut the guild’s ability to enforce its collective bargaining agreement. The WGA never moved forward on any claim that Paramount violated the C.B.A. by not crediting Gray, but nevertheless, the guild now wants to shield communications with Gray and others related to that inquiry.

Paramount says the WGA is trying to carve out something resembling a “union relations privilege.” Judge Rakoff has yet to rule on Paramount’s push for documents and the WGA’s bold privilege assertions. This one’s far from over.

Now, here’s Scott…

Hollywood’s Summer of Meh

Most of the big studio movies performed as well as they needed to for their own commercial success. But a lack of regular releases, zero surprise breakouts, and a slew of less-special-than-before franchise titles left theaters begging for a #Barbenheimer…

Scott Mendelson

Alas, the summer movie season, which is finally in the rearview, was defined by mostly underwhelming reboots and sequels (Smurfs, 28 Years Later), way-too-tired I.P. (The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Ballerina), and barely released awards bait (Highest 2 Lowest). There was some original material that found its intended audience, like F1 and Weapons, but those were the two notable exceptions. Unsurprisingly, the season will drastically underperform the #Barbenheimer summer of 2023.

Domestic grosses for the overall summer movie season were, as of August 19, $3.38 billion—just a sixth of a percent above last summer’s $3.36 billion total on the same date. However, that edge might increase after a pair of unconventional releases this weekend. China’s $2.2 billion-grossing Ne Zha 2—which earned $21 million domestically in February via CMC Pictures—will return with an English dub, now courtesy of A24. At the same time, a sing-along version of Netflix’s massive hit KPop Demon Hunters will hit multiplexes for a limited, two-day run. Packed theaters are packed theaters, but demographically specific event films like these are supposed to be found money, not essential revenue.

The deeper you look, in fact, the more fraught the picture becomes. In terms of overall North American earnings for films specifically released between May 2 and August 15, the cume is currently $3.14 billion. That’s down 12 percent from last year and 19 percent from 2023. Discounting inflation, and omitting the compromised Covid summers of 2020 and 2021, the 2025 new releases have so far earned the least of any summer slate since 2000, which had reached $2.87 billion by this point on the calendar.

Yes, these are domestic numbers. But given that a portion of the worldwide box office will also be made up of non-Hollywood titles that may not even play in North American theaters, the domestic figures provide a more consistent comparison in terms of the Hollywood output and the health of the theatrical ecosystem.

Summer by the Numbers

This summer there were around 20 big releases, which made the season more of a relay race than a royal rumble. One would-be tentpole or franchise film was tasked with holding up the industry for one week, or maybe two: Thunderbolts passed the baton to Final Destination: Bloodlines, and Jurassic World: Rebirth handed it off to Superman, which in turn passed it to Fantastic Four, and so on.

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31 Emmy Nominations

-- including --

Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

SNL50: The Anniversary Special

“still nothing else like it on television”

- GQ

“...timelessly funny…”

- CNN

“…a reunion show for the ages”

- USA Today

_____

(Read) Inside Saturday Night Live’s “Absolutely Unreal” 50th Season

(Read) The best moments from ‘SNL’s’ 50th anniversary special

(Read) Behind the Magic of ‘Saturday Night Live’s’ Comedy Empire

_____

For more on SNL50, visit NBCUFYC.com

Most of the summer’s 3,000-plus-screen biggies came from Disney, which made $989 million domestic from five movies; Warner Bros., which brought in $754 million from four movies; and Universal, which generated $705 million from six movies, including Focus’s The Phoenician Scheme. That adds up to $2.45 billion, or 78 percent of the total domestic box office for the in-season releases. In terms of overall calendar gross, WB’s April holdovers—A Minecraft Movie and Sinners—added nearly $180 million to the seasonal totals.

Meanwhile, Paramount earned $271 million from three I.P.-specific releases (with $197 million coming from Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning), Sony hauled in $154 million from three legacy sequels, and Lionsgate added $69 million from five films ($58 million of which came from Ballerina). Throw in the indies—including an $85 million, six-film slate from A24—and you’re at just under $700 million combined from every theatrical distributor outside the big three from Burbank.

This summer, there was a notable divide between sequels and reboots that offered value outside of their respective franchises, and those that relied purely on nostalgia. Superman offered a topical, over-the-top adventure and set itself apart from the previous installments by not being as indebted to the Richard Donner original or playing like a loose remake of Richard Lester’s Superman II. Universal sold How to Train Your Dragon as a live-action remake, but one directed by Dean DeBlois, the filmmaker behind the animated trilogy. It was positioned as an Imax-worthy, big-budget adventure in the (kid-safe) Game of Thrones or Lord of the Rings sandbox.

Paramount’s Naked Gun revamp offered specific in-film entertainment value—notably Liam Neeson spoofing his own 2010s action hero image alongside a game Pamela Anderson. Universal sold Jurassic World: Rebirth as a mostly disconnected adventure that offered plenty of dinosaurs chasing various added-value movie stars like Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali.

Meanwhile, the films that underwhelmed or delivered scant value to North American theaters offered very little to audiences not interested in the originals. 28 Years Later, despite the involvement of Oscar winner Danny Boyle, was seen by general audiences as just another zombie flick. The fan base showed up, and it earned a $30 million domestic and $60 million global debut—but the $75 million film totaled just $70 million in North America and $150 million worldwide. Meanwhile, few moviegoers wanted to leave the house to see I Know What You Did Last Summer cosplaying The Force Awakens ($31 million domestically and $70 million worldwide on an $18 million budget), The Karate Kid borrowing from the Spider-Man: No Way Home playbook ($52 million domestically and $105 million worldwide on a $45 million budget), or yet another Smurfs movie ($31 million stateside and $105 million worldwide on a $58 million budget). Meanwhile, Ballerina was hamstrung by Lionsgate overrelying on John Wick imagery in the promotional materials, creating the (false) impression that the spinoff had few pleasures of its own. And, as feared, Fantastic Four (a likely final total of around $270 million domestic and $500 million worldwide) looked too much like Rise of the Silver Surfer to interest anyone not already on the MCU bandwagon.

Blockbusted

Speaking domestically, yes, this summer’s downturn was partially due to the absence of a single mega-movie like Barbie or Top Gun: Maverick, let alone two, as with last year’s Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3. In 2024, the summer slate featured smaller-scale franchises, past-its-prime I.P., and spinoffs that nobody asked for. But key blockbusters overperformed, and there were out-of-nowhere smash hits like It Ends With Us and surprise overseas overperformers like Alien: Romulus (both of which topped $350 million worldwide). Alas, things didn’t break that way this year.

In terms of sequels, Fantastic Four will sell fewer domestic tickets than the 2005 Fantastic Four. Ballerina barely earned more domestically than the $56 million domestic debut weekend of John Wick: Chapter 3, while Karate Kid: Legends brought in less stateside than the $55 million opening domestic weekend of the 2010 Karate Kid remake. The Naked Gun will top $100 million globally, but it still opened smaller than The Naked Gun 33 1/3 in 1994—not adjusted for inflation. Ditto Freakier Friday, which is approaching $100 million globally. Both are decent results for a comedy in 2025, but neither set the box office on fire.

In the end, the season’s top five North American earners—Lilo & Stitch, Superman, Jurassic World: Rebirth, How to Train Your Dragon, and (eventually) Fantastic Four—will total close to $1.4 billion. That compares to $1.92 billion last year, $1.71 billion in 2023, and $1.87 billion in 2022. Ironically, theaters also lacked the higher-grossing “flops” that we saw a couple of years ago, like Fast X ($146 million), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny ($174 million), and The Flash ($109 million).

Clearly, studio executives are scrambling to figure out distribution in a world where theaters have become the secondary format of the medium, and the decline overseas for almost everything but Jurassic World is a Titanosaurus-sized warning that more marketplaces beyond just China are now primarily feasting on their homegrown blockbusters (which should be reflected in budgeting for any future tentpole not set on Pandora).

Perhaps the lone exception to all of the above was F1: The Movie, which is nearing $600 million worldwide and won’t be on streaming until this Friday. And yet, Brad Pitt’s racing melodrama, already Hollywood’s biggest live-action original since Interstellar, still might not persuade Apple to reverse course on its post-Argylle theatrical apathy.

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