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Dec 22, 2025

The Varsity
John Ourand John Ourand

Welcome back to The Varsity. I’m John Ourand, back in D.C. for Christmas week. Here’s to a great holiday season for all of Varsity nation!

On account of the holiday, this will be our only private email this week, and we’ll return next Monday with Julia Alexander’s perspicacious predictions for the next year. (Rust never sleeps!) Meanwhile, we have a full schedule for you on the Varsity podcast. NBC Sports’s Nicole Auerbach joins me on Wednesday to dissect the latest squabbles and paradigm shifts in college football. And don’t miss Marchand’s return visit (!!) this coming weekend. I’ll offer my predictions while Andrew installs my new EuroCave INOA 600 cooling unit and offers an endless pour of crisp (never tart!) sancerre.

Mentioned in this issue: Gabe Spitzer, Ted Sarandos, Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, Brian Windhorst, Anthony Joshua, Deion Sanders, Hulk Hogan, Bela Bajaria, Beyoncé, and many more…

 

The Starting Five

  1. The ND-USC hiatus: The Notre Dame–USC rivalry pause, which was announced earlier today, resulted from the twin pangs of conference expansion and the CFP selection process. During its two seasons in the Big Ten, USC has traveled all the way to the Midwest six times and won only one of those games—if you can even count lowly Purdue as a real victory. Perhaps the school didn’t like the idea of traveling to South Bend every other year on top of its grueling Big Ten schedule. And the school surely didn’t want to risk a mid- or late-season loss in a College Football Playoff selection process that views either uncharitably. USC proposed an early-season game on a neutral field, but that didn’t work for Notre Dame. (Ross Dellenger has a good write-up of what went down behind the scenes.)
  2. What does the Fox Say: Michael Morris, the respected media and internet analyst at Guggenheim Securities, increased the firm’s 12-month price target on Fox from $75 to $85 per share. The report cited the economic activity stemming from, among other factors, strong ad demand, slowed cord-cutting, the growth of Tubi, its broadcast rights to next year’s World Cup, and its anticipated renewal of NFL rights when they expire next year, or in 2027. “While we acknowledge that NFL rights will likely be renewed at higher costs when current contracts expire, … we believe the incremental cost will be manageable given Fox’s demonstrated ability to monetize NFL content through both advertising and distribution revenue,” he wrote. “Critically, a new NFL agreement would provide expense visibility well into the 2030s.”
  3. The NBA’s European push: Last week on the Varsity podcast, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and I assessed the NBA’s increasingly ambitious plan to launch a league in Europe. While the start date remains uncertain, ESPN reported today that the NBA and FIBA will begin discussions with teams and owners about joining the new league as early as next month. “Many details for the new league are yet to be formally finalized, including when it will start play—the working target has been October 2027—and how many teams will take part in that inaugural season,” according to ESPN. “Among the models that the NBA and FIBA have explored is a 16-team league, with 12 permanent spots, and the other four available through qualifying.”
  4. Paramount and Netflix gain: Nielsen’s Media Distributor Gauge ratings for November evinced a fragmented TV ecosystem shaped by live sports, savvy streaming strategy, and the gravitational pull of Thanksgiving viewing. Paramount and Netflix emerged as the month’s biggest winners, each posting double-digit growth over October and reshuffling the rankings in the process.

    Paramount’s overall viewership jumped 14 percent in November, marking its strongest monthly performance since April. The company captured 8.9 percent of total TV watch time, including a 0.7-point share gain, good for number three in the rankings. Netflix added 0.3 share points and finished November with 8.3 percent of total TV usage. YouTube and Disney, for their part, held on to the top two spots in the rankings, commanding 12.9 percent and 10.5 percent of total TV usage, respectively. YouTube’s share was flat month over month. Disney, by contrast, slid 0.9 share points—a decline largely driven by drops across ABC affiliates and ESPN, partly due to disruption from its carriage dispute with YouTube TV.
  5. Warner Bros. won’t be home for Christmas: Speaking of Netflix and Paramount, last week, my brilliant partner Bill Cohan was all over this Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition drama—at this point, I think he should start charging C.E.O. David Zaslav a deal fee. Shortly after Bill published his latest masterstroke on the delta between the Paramount overlords and the WBD board, the Ellisons announced this morning that they were fully backstopping the equity in their $108 billion bid.

    My favorite part of Bill’s piece, however, was buried at the end. Were you worried that Santa was going to leave a lump of coal in the stockings of those impecunious bankers working on this transaction? Fear not, Tiny Tim, there’s plenty of yuletide mirth to pass around! Per Bill: “Don’t forget the WBD investment bankers, who will also be rather well paid, the S.E.C. filing reveals. Both Allen & Co. and JPMorgan Chase will receive fees of $85 million each—$45 million of Allen & Co.’s fee and $50 million of JPMorgan Chase’s will be payable when the Netflix deal closes. Evercore’s fee is $55 million. And given that this deal is nowhere near its conclusion, those compensation totals and fees will only go up. Thankfully, everyone will eat this Christmas.”

And now for the main event…

Netflix’s Circus Maximus

Netflix’s Circus Maximus

The Jake Paul–Anthony Joshua fight may have bored the in-arena crowd, but it perfectly illustrated Netflix’s live-sports playbook, where ringside celebrity, global reach, and social media chatter far outweigh the competition itself.

John Ourand John Ourand

On Friday night, the most anticipated boxing match of the year took place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, and live on Netflix. The action in the ring, as influencer-turned-Make-a-Wish fighter Jake Paul did his best to evade former heavyweight champ Anthony Joshua, was mostly plodding and always one-sided. The Kaseya Center crowd booed several times in want of action. Joshua’s K.O. win mercifully put an end to the dull spectacle in the sixth. Paul received a twice-broken jaw for his efforts.

The scene in the arena was far more engaging, however. While it didn’t pack the oomph of Paul’s previous Netflix pageant against Mike Tyson, the crowd provided a big-event atmosphere. A little more than an hour before Paul and Joshua entered the ring, the arena’s V.I.P. section was packed with crossover stars and influencers: rappers (Rick Ross, Timbaland, and Young Thug), actors (Benny Safdie and Matt Rife), comics (Bert Kreischer), etcetera. And Netflix’s chief content officer, Bela Bajaria, held court in the middle of it all.

This, of course, was the Netflix idyll: the chance to own the culture for a night or two. In this scenario, the quality of the contest is a secondary concern. To wit: Netflix’s two Christmas Day NFL games feature three teams that have already been eliminated from playoff contention. But these are merely minor inconveniences within the streamer’s larger eventization strategy, which also includes dropping three new episodes of Stranger Things that same day, in advance of the two-hour series finale on December 31.

During halftime of the late-afternoon Lions–Vikings game, the singing voices of Huntrix will perform alongside country singer Lainey Wilson and Snoop Dogg—which, if recent history is a guide, will attract many more viewers than the game itself. (Note for readers without young children: Huntrix is the fictional K-pop trio from Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters, the streamer’s most-watched original film ever.) This is a tried-and-true strategy at this point. Last year, Beyoncé’s halftime show in the Christmas Day Ravens–Texas blowout helped set viewership records. “Our C.E.O., Ted Sarandos, says it’s an event strategy more than a sports strategy,” Netflix vice president of sports Gabe Spitzer told me on the Varsity podcast last week. “In the live sports space, it’s really about finding events that are going to create watercooler conversations and bring people from around the world to want to click on Netflix and watch it.”

Netflix’s eventizing has been more successful with boxing than other sports, mainly because of its international appeal. Roughly 45 percent of Netflix’s boxing audience comes from outside the U.S., compared to around 10-15 percent for NFL games. “The U.S. is a mature market,” Spitzer told me. “But when you can do it in an eventized way, and you can surprise people, … I do think there’s this sense of only on Netflix, in some ways.” Spitzer also referenced Beyoncé bringing out surprise guests Post Malone and Shaboozey last Christmas. “We saw that with last November’s Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight,” Spitzer said. “It felt like the world came together to watch that fight on Netflix, and only on Netflix. We see the power of what the best and biggest live sports events can do.” If those live events also offer a platform to further synergize your animated global juggernaut ahead of the Oscars or pump the stock of your teen horror sensation before its swan song: Merry Christmas.

The Missing MLB

During our conversation, Spitzer also offered an inside look at the streamer’s sports documentary strategy. Despite the common belief that the format’s post-Last Dance boom days are fading, he revealed that Netflix saw upward of 871 million hours of sports doc viewing in the past year. Still, many critics argue (correctly) that the genre has become oversaturated, with too many heavily promoted “all-access” docs feeling like little more than live-action press releases.

I asked him how Netflix decides which projects to pursue. “For us, it’s really about access and authenticity,” Spitzer said. “How can we surprise viewers? How are we letting them in, in ways that they can’t just get on social media or other places? I do think we’ve reached a tipping point in the follow-doc genre, where maybe there are too many of them right now, so we have to be a bit pickier in terms of the ones we’re doing. … There are more incredible docs coming: We have Hulk Hogan; we have Mike Tyson; we have Deion Sanders; so there’s plenty of good ones that are still out there.”

Meanwhile, many assumed streamers would pounce on MLB.TV out-of-market rights after ESPN’s surprising decision in February to opt out of its deal. But that baseball package, at least for now, doesn’t neatly align with Netflix’s sports strategy. MLB is fundamentally a volume play—and while Netflix appears open to targeted volume, indiscriminate scale isn’t central to its rights thesis.

“Obviously, there’s an added cost for a subscription to MLB. It’s not in our model right now,” Spitzer said. “We have multiple tiers of pricing for a Netflix subscription, but what we want is to give the audience that choice. When they come in, they’re going to be able to watch whatever they want, whenever they want—whether you have the ads tier or the premium tier. And I think we’ve proven with that, we can bring in a larger audience and create great, entertaining programming.”

 

From the Cheap Seats

A Christmas story: “In 2010, your podcast guest Gabe Spitzer was an emerging producer at HBO Sports. We signed with the NHL to do an all-access series following the two Winter Classic teams in the lead-up to the outdoor showdown. It was the first time an American pro sports league permitted a non-league-owned entity to embed with a team during the regular season. Well, Gabe was assigned to the Penguins and spent more than a month embedded with them. As Christmas approached, the head coach, Dan Bylsma, asked the HBO crew about their Christmas plans. When Gabe told him that they had no plans, Coach Bylsma invited Gabe and the HBO Sports crew to Christmas dinner at his house. You gotta love hockey.” —An HBO Sports old-timer

On the Indiana Bears: “I have to push back on your idea that Kevin Warren’s Northwest Indiana mention [as a site for a future stadium] is purely headline bait. Neither of the New York City NFL teams actually plays in New York; they share a stadium in New Jersey. The Washington Commanders played D.C., Virginia, and Maryland against each other for their stadium deal, and the Kansas City Chiefs are currently doing the same with Kansas and Missouri. Leveraging adjacent jurisdictions is standard practice in NFL stadium negotiations. Warren may have tipped his hand later than ideal, but the playbook itself is hardly unique.” —A media executive

On the Great White North: “Did you really ask Brian Windhorst if it’s hard to develop stars in Minnesota? Prince. Bob Dylan. Paul Bunyan. Roger Maris. The Hanson Brothers from Slapshot. Vince Vaughn. Brandon and Brenda Walsh from 90210. John Madden. Spam. Wouldn’t surprise me if the place for which you pen your detritus is actually named after Kirby Puckett. Hey, Ourand, here’s some Minnesota nice for you: Would you please be so kind as to go grin-fuck yourself. Ope, meant to say happy holidays. You betcha.” —A typical Minnesotan

 

Have a great holiday week. I’ll see you back here on Monday.

John

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